El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1475 - 1425

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

18z models are not very good they are missing upper air data 12z and 00z are better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1474. cg2916
Quoting JRRP:

84
where is the system???

South of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1473. Drakoen
Weak area of low pressure on the NAM. Doesn't feel the effects of the mid to upper level trough and succumbs to the low level ridging.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Quoting JRRP:

84
where is the system???


Over Belize it looks like.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1471. JRRP

84
where is the system???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1470. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1467. JRRP

66
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back in a bit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
kmanislander, do you live in the Cayman Islands?


Yes I do, on the SW corner of Grand Cayman.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
kmanislander, do you live in the Cayman Islands?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1463. MahFL
Its been raining heavy on and off all day in Orange Park. It sure looks like a surface low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike,
From HPC:

SOUTHWARD GFS/DGEX/ECMWF STILL INSIST UPON TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
MID PERIOD IN THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN OFF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS WITH A
GENERAL NWD TRACK TOWARDS WRN CUBA. THIS MODEL DEVELOPMENT HAS
BEEN SEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND MORE. EARLIER THIS SEASON LONGER
RANGE GFS/ECMWF DID WELL IDENTIFYING LOW LATITUDE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL DEVELOPENT BUT IN THOSE CASES THE ORIGINAL SYSTEM WAS
MORE BAROCLINIC INTIALLY. THIS WOULD BE COMPLETELY TROPICAL AND
THIS TYPE OF CYCLOGENESIS IS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THESE MODELS. THE
CMC NORMALLY A BULLISH TROPICAL AND MARITIME EXTRATROPICAL MODEL
WITH A HIGH FALSE ALARM RATIO IS NOT GENERATING MUCH OF A SYSTEM
AND CONTS TO WEAKEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD LEAD US
INTO EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS GENERATION. IF WE HAVE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IT MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEEKEND OVER
CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. TPC/HPC COORDINATION PREFERENCE IS TO
LEAVE THIS AS A VERY SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE WRN CARRIBEAN
INITIALLY AS TROF THEN A SPOT LOW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I flew into Miami yesterday around 6:30 from Barbados and found total chaos at the airport. Weather had closed it for about 3 hrs and my plane was #16 in a line waiting for a gate. We parked way off to the side, shut off the engines and waited in the aircraft for 3 hrs.

Talk about stir crazy !!.

Missed my connection home and had to overnight. 6 inches of rain flooded the area but especially Collins Ave . The Eden Roc hotel had to be evacuated due to flooding.

If that type of weather continues this summer on top of tropical season Florida will be in serious trouble.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is that a depression forming in NE FLorida? The center of the circular motion is over swamp, and it seems to be pulling moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Near the low level feature - the small set of islands off the coast of Nicaragua also known as Provincia.

Observations for SAN, Colombia (SKSP)
Location: 12.58N 81.72W 0 meters
Observation time: 06 Jun 2009 20:00 UTC
Altimeter Setting 29.82 inHg
Station Pressure 1010.1 hPa
Temperature 82 F ( 28.0 C)
Dew Point 79 F ( 26.0 C)
Relative Humidity 89 %
Wind Direction 90 deg (E)
Wind Speed 10 kt
Visibility 6 mile
Clouds Few at 2300 feet
Overcast at 8000 feet
Air Density 1.154 kg/m3
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1458. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1456. Drakoen
HPC 7 day:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1455. DDR
Quoting Weather456:
Alot of showers for Trinidad and Venezuela

Nothing here yet,just high clouds &
Insects making alot of noise in the trees.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1454. IKE
Puerto Cabezas, NK (Airport)
Updated: 21 min 13 sec ago
Light Thunderstorms and Rain
79 °F
Light Thunderstorm Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.83 in (Steady)
Visibility: 2.5 miles
UV: 6 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1400 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 66 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

1. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS
TIME...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


If this forms how strong cold it get and where would it go?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1452. Drakoen
This really doesn't look any different from climatology with the Panama low.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Quoting Drakoen:


That's at 500mb. The 700mb-850mb rotation N of Panama are displaced.


Agreed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice...

000
AGXX40 KNHC 061945
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
345 PM EDT SAT JUN 06 2009


CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W...
COMPUTER MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
AND A QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1030 UTC THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NEAR THE EDGE OF THE SWATH...SHOWED THAT WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
VEER TO THE SE BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN LATE MON THROUGH THU WITH WINDS IN
THE 20 KT RANGE AND MAX SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE IF
THERE APPEARS TO A MORE DEFINITIVE CONSENSUS AS TO ANY POSSIBLE
UPCOMING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS ITS
FUTURE TRACK...PARTICULARLY SINCE THIS IS A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THIS EARLY PORTION OF THE
SEASON.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1449. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


I agree that the rotation is weak at present but I do see it just W of or on the 80 degree line near 13 N. I suspect that the 850 vorticity will improve over the next 12 hrs and consolidate but right now the strongest signature is just over and N of Panama.

A weaker reflection is near the area I am referring to and that is a favoured breeding ground.


That's at 500mb. The 700mb-850mb rotation N of Panama are displaced.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Quoting IKE:


Looks like you're going to get some rain in a few days.


We need it bad. Still dry as a bone here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mid-level winds does not seem to cyclonic. I do believe the bulk of the spin is low level, that is where winds curvature is strongest.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1446. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
I looked at the satellite imagery and the rotation is insignificant. It looks like an open mid level low.


Well nobody said it was closed. It's not that strong yet. But there is a mid-level circulation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm having trouble finding any distinct mid level circulation. Very weak presence as far as circulation is concerned regardless of what cimss 850mb vorticity says.


I agree that the rotation is weak at present but I do see it just W of or on the 80 degree line near 13 N. I suspect that the 850 vorticity will improve over the next 12 hrs and consolidate but right now the strongest signature is just over and N of Panama.

A weaker reflection is near the area I am referring to and that is a favoured breeding ground.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
rotation at 12.5N/81.5W , I see NHC has this area circled yellow also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vortex95:
I was emulating a fellow blogger who has a taste for posting 95% of his posts in all caps and doomsday senerios although he partially got Katrina right it was and still is quite annoying.


Sorry, you just can never tell sometimes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1441. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi Ike

Things have changed significantly in the SW Caribbean since Wednesday when I left town. Frankly, I was surprised to see that the subsidence that had gripped the basin for weeks had lessened considerably. A clear sign of favourable MJO on the way.


Looks like you're going to get some rain in a few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1440. Drakoen
I looked at the satellite imagery and the rotation is insignificant. It looks like an open mid level low.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm having trouble finding any distinct mid level circulation. Very weak presence as far as circulation is concerned regardless of what cimss 850mb vorticity says.


i can ee mid level rotation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1438. IKE
Quoting StormJunkie:
Ike, seems that way on visible as well. You can really see the shear just to/on the north side of the area. Where as to the south it looks much more relaxed.


Agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think that whatever happens in the Carribean this week, we'll all be interested.

There is always the excitement of the unknown and whether people admit it or not, they'll be asking themselves: Is this the one?

I for one, hope that nothing comes this way late next week, because I have to head outta town for a few and would not want the wife and kids to deal with anything while I'm not here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1436. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm having trouble finding any distinct mid level circulation. Very weak presence as far as circulation is concerned regardless of what cimss 850mb vorticity says.


This spin is not "weak".

There is a perfectly typical 500mb vort max as well (i.e. mid-level circulation..):

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Miami afternoon discussion extended...

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER
THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS EACH AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EAST COAST AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS WEEK AND MOVING
NORTH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OR THE FLORIDA
STRAITS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A EASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...DUE
TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOME MORE MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE CWA AREA BY THIS
WEEKEND. SO HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE CWA FOR
THIS WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS WEEK.


definitely different from this morning's discussion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Ike

Things have changed significantly in the SW Caribbean since Wednesday when I left town. Frankly, I was surprised to see that the subsidence that had gripped the basin for weeks had lessened considerably. A clear sign of favourable MJO on the way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1432. Levi32
Quoting Vortex95:
I was emulating a fellow blogger who has a taste for posting 95% of his posts in all caps and doomsday senerios although he partially got Katrina right it was and still is quite annoying.


Please don't make us remember that guy lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1431. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon everyone

Just got back into town from a business trip and see that things are getting interesting in the SW Caribbean.

There is rotation in the mid levels near 13N 80W and shear is falling. High pressure is trying to build aloft as evidenced by the fanning out of the cloud field. Conditions seem to be slowly coming together for some form of development there.



I'm having trouble finding any distinct mid level circulation. Very weak presence as far as circulation is concerned regardless of what cimss 850mb vorticity says.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1429. IKE
Miami afternoon discussion extended...

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER
THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS EACH AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EAST COAST AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS WEEK AND MOVING
NORTH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OR THE FLORIDA
STRAITS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A EASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...DUE
TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOME MORE MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE CWA AREA BY THIS
WEEKEND. SO HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE CWA FOR
THIS WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS WEEK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1428. Levi32
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Guys, by when is the wind shear in the Carribean expected to lessen up significantly?


Probably 5-6 days from now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1427. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:


Lay off that stuff Drak......


Now, back to the tropics.


LOL.


I promise... pinky swear? LOL
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1426. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon everyone

Just got back into town from a business trip and see that things are getting interesting in the SW Caribbean.

There is rotation in the mid levels near 13N 80W and shear is falling. High pressure is trying to build aloft as evidenced by the fanning out of the cloud field. Conditions seem to be slowly coming together for some form of development there.



Welcome home...even KMAN gives it a shot!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1425. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


LOL


Lay off that stuff Drak......


Now, back to the tropics.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Promise?



LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1475 - 1425

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
30 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron