El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1625 - 1575

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

1625. Drakoen
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


God I hope not. Sits over South Florida for 2 days, I would need a canoe.


I don't know if a canoe would do it, probably would need an ark.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1622. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Where is Adrian!?!?!?!?!?


Pouring a shot of Vodka.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1621. IKE
If the GFS is wrong on development, it's consistently wrong on it, for days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


God I hope not. Sits over South Florida for 2 days, I would need a canoe.


Heck i thought you had an "Ark"

LMAO

Taco :0)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1619. Drakoen
Where is Adrian!?!?!?!?!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1618. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
God help us all!?!?!?!?!?


The blog couldn't survive.....@ 204 hrs....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting taco2me61:

With all due respect but I can see this happening too....

Taco :0)


God I hope not. Sits over South Florida for 2 days, I would need a canoe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1616. Drakoen
God help us all!?!?!?!?!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1615. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Lets ignore this GFS run.

I can already see the blog going into self destruct mode.

With all due respect but I can see this happening too....

Taco :0)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1613. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Lets ignore this GFS run.

I can already see the blog going into self destruct mode.


LOL. WeatherStudent putting up shutters.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Mind that Bird and Calvin made their move about 20 seconds too early...Damn fine job to come from the back of the pack though.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16360
Lets ignore this GFS run.

I can already see the blog going into self destruct mode.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1610. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


And the GFS showed that 3 days ago until it started barfing. The fate of the low over Florida is still uncertain at this point. I don't know if it will become a true trough split but the point is it still could.

I've enjoyed these discussions but I gotta go now to do some work outside while it's still sunny. Later all.


And the forecast can't solely be based on what the GFS says which is the majority of your backing. The UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC still exist as models.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1609. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


500mb isn't too deep for a cyclone to form under, and the GFS is not forecasting anomalous surface ridging in the western Gulf of Mexico. A cyclone can't just move into it, but I'm talking about forming UNDER it. This is early-season developments we're talking about here.


This ridge is 200mb-850mb thick. With that column you are going to have subsidence. The point alone is not just forming under it but the dry mid level conditions which you are not addressing. This is also a synoptic-scale high pressure system fairly large in nature. The high is the reason for the system's asymmetric appearance on the GFS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1608. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


It's not a mid level cut-off until it is surrounding by the isohypse otherwise it's just residue flow.


And the GFS showed that 3 days ago until it started barfing. The fate of the low over Florida is still uncertain at this point. I don't know if it will become a true trough split but the point is it still could.

I've enjoyed these discussions but I gotta go now to do some work outside while it's still sunny. Later all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1607. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


We are not just talking about a 200mb high. This is a deep layered ridge. A cyclone cannot simply move in. There is strong mid level dry air. The stronger the ridge is the more subsidence there will be. Surface high or no surface high.


500mb isn't too deep for a cyclone to form under, and the GFS is not forecasting anomalous surface ridging in the western Gulf of Mexico. A cyclone can't just move into it, but I'm talking about forming UNDER it. This is early-season developments we're talking about here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1606. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


First of all the GFS has been goofing up on everything regarding that area. The 48-hour 500mb shows the cutoff just before it dissipates over Florida. The 200mb shows it as the trough you describe within the sub-tropical jet, but at the mid-levels it's a mid-level cutoff between the jet branches. It's not the classic trough split but it could be called one. Once the ridge builds into the GOM and the sub-tropical jet lifts out it will be easier for true trough splits to occur.


It's not a mid level cut-off until it is surrounded by the isohypse otherwise it's just residue flow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1605. IKE
GFS seems stronger on this run and slightly further east. Then turning NNW.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting leftovers:
go calvin on mind that bird.


Not a horse racing fan, but yea; I like that story. Go Calvin
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16360
1603. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


If you look at the GFS it is to remain with in upper trough flow and not become a separate entity. What would be more interesting is the formation of an upper low along the base of the trough within the vort lobe. And that's a cut-off rather than a trough split.


First of all the GFS has been goofing up on everything regarding that area. The 48-hour 500mb shows the cutoff just before it dissipates over Florida. The 200mb shows it as the trough you describe within the sub-tropical jet, but at the mid-levels it's a mid-level cutoff between the jet branches. It's not the classic trough split but it could be called one. Once the ridge builds into the GOM and the sub-tropical jet lifts out it will be easier for true trough splits to occur.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1602. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Ok so then why doesn't every storm under an upper anti-cyclone degenerate? Because with an anticyclone air spreads out which ventilates the storm and creates low pressure at the surface. We were just talking about how the MJO upward motion pulse implies an upper ridge in the southern Caribbean. If there's a surface high as well in the western gulf then sure subsidence is great, but that doesn't mean a tropical wave or tropical low can't move into the area and benefit from the divergent effects of the upper high.


We are not just talking about a 200mb high. This is a deep layered ridge. A cyclone cannot simply move in. There is strong mid level dry air. The stronger the ridge is the more subsidence there will be. Surface high or no surface high.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Levi, the deep layer ECMWF is showing strong anticyclonic flow over the Atlantic and deep layer troughing over Eastern Gulf. About Thursday, the deep layer troughing is not as strong and the ridge continues to build. The steering flow that results is northward to slighty west of north through 1 week as it crosses Cuba. It did not go beyond 1 week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1599. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


The trough-split isn't complete yet. It's still within the trough but it will be drifting south and east as the upper trough lifts out and a banana ridge builds over the eastern seaboard.

The other possibility is that the upper low opens up and becomes a trough like the one the NOGAPS forsees causing extra shear in the Caribbean.


If you look at the GFS it is to remain with in upper trough flow and not become a separate entity. What would be more interesting is the formation of an upper low along the base of the trough within the vort lobe. And that's a cut-off rather than a trough split.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1598. DDR
Quoting Ossqss:


I can see this coming ! Model Wars -- LOL




Rflmao!
What is that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1597. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


No. The EPAC ridge is carrying subsidence with it which is a high possibility for the degeneration of the storm if it were to get into the GOM combined with wind shear.


Ok so then why doesn't every storm under an upper anti-cyclone degenerate? Because with an anticyclone air spreads out which ventilates the storm and creates low pressure at the surface. We were just talking about how the MJO upward motion pulse implies an upper ridge in the southern Caribbean. If there's a surface high as well in the western gulf then sure subsidence is great, but that doesn't mean a tropical wave or tropical low can't move into the area and benefit from the divergent effects of the upper high.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi all just checking in to see whats going own ..... I'm in Houston TX this weekend and the weather here is so Beautiful now.... I did get a chance to go to Galveston and Look around some.... Alot of the stores have come back but there is still alot of Damage left to fix around here....

Taoc :0)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1594. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


And I still say that it wasn't. I already explained that the low was from the progression of the shortwave across the eastern U.S.A. I said that it tried to feature an upper low with in the mean upper trough flow which is what we are seeing.


The trough-split isn't complete yet. It's still within the trough but it will be drifting south and east as the upper trough lifts out and a banana ridge builds over the eastern seaboard.

The other possibility is that the upper low opens up and becomes a trough like the one the NOGAPS forsees causing extra shear in the Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Sorry I misunderstood you. I thought you had the new one. My bad.


I do have it. But you had to downloaded it prior to when the aurthor's site went offline
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Stormchaser2007,

If I do find a third party link I will send it to you but for now we have to download the data using ftp servers and import it into the software.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Look at posts 1573 and 1574, the new Global Tracks has not been available for download for a while now.


Sorry I misunderstood you. I thought you had the new one. My bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1590. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


So look to the GOM under the EPAC ridge. The favorable area for development will be migrating north and west with time.


No. The EPAC ridge is carrying subsidence with it which is a high possibility for the degeneration of the storm if it were to get into the GOM combined with wind shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Your right.. on the page of the person who wrote it now.. interesting program.. did you see their 2009 landfall prediction picture?


HA Most of Florida is not even on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The new one. Thanks again.


Look at posts 1573 and 1574, the new Global Tracks has not been available for download for a while now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1587. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


I kinda meant both.....and yesterday you said my short-wave cutoff wasn't a trough split....lol.


And I still say that it wasn't. I already explained that the low was from the progression of the shortwave across the eastern U.S.A. I said that it tried to feature an upper low with in the mean upper trough flow which is what we are seeing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1586. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:



To add to that a firm mid atlantic ridge is best for the upper gradient to create hostile shear.


So look to the GOM under the EPAC ridge. The favorable area for development will be migrating north and west with time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1585. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


The TUTT is prominently around 200mb. You'd have a better chance at a shortwave cut-off. None of the models show a split in the TUTT which would be rare other than a deep upper low is forming.


I kinda meant both.....and yesterday you said my short-wave cutoff wasn't a trough split....lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1584. Drakoen
Quoting Drakoen:


The TUTT is prominently around 200mb. You'd have a better chance at a shortwave cut-off. None of the models show a split in the TUTT which would be rare other than a deep upper low is forming.



To add to that a firm mid atlantic ridge is best for the upper gradient to create hostile shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Just to be clear...link to the old version or new?


The new one. Thanks again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1582. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Nothing is the end all be all in meteorology. Yes I would like to see the 200mb too. The SW Atlantic ridge may also squeeze off the TUTT entirely leaving a ridge bridge across Florida. That's the whole point of a trough-split pattern. Troughs move off the eastern seaboard and get squeezed off at the end by the ridge and the upper piece floats down into the GOM or the Caribbean.


The TUTT is prominently around 200mb. You'd have a better chance at a shortwave cut-off. None of the models show a split in the TUTT which would be rare other than a deep upper low is forming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Your right.. on the page of the person who wrote it now.. interesting program.. did you see their 2009 landfall prediction picture?


yea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


I think CNET has the old version from back in 2004. The current version is 7.3 for 2008 but has not been available since November 2008


Your right.. on the page of the person who wrote it now.. interesting program.. did you see their 2009 landfall prediction picture?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1579. Ossqss
Quoting Drakoen:


LOL calm down. I like discussing these things with Levi. It's fun.


I can see this coming ! Model Wars -- LOL




Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
1578. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


It certainly would have been helpful to have the GFS back up your allegations. And yes 10 days from now when the ridge moves in the GOM and the MJO is the strongest is when perhaps things will become more favorable. And even with the advection of the GOM low if the mid-Atlantic ridge stays strong that could allow the TUTT to dive down in to the southern Caribbean. So that ridge moving in is certainly not the end all be all. The southern branch of the jet stream still looks to linger in the GOM with increasing zonal shear which is the reason for the GFS split-low near the Yucatan channel. I would love to look at the ECMWF at 200mb because the 500mb and 200mb are not always one in the same.


Nothing is the end all be all in meteorology. Yes I would like to see the 200mb too. The SW Atlantic ridge may also squeeze off the TUTT entirely leaving a ridge bridge across Florida. That's the whole point of a trough-split pattern. Troughs move off the eastern seaboard and get squeezed off at the end by the ridges and the upper piece floats down into the GOM or the Caribbean.

And yes model support is always nice.....and I had it for like the last week the GFS had "ghost-storms" at every 384 hour. But I think for myself and I don't always need a computer to verify my theories.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Can you WU mail me the link? Thanks.


Just to be clear...link to the old version or new?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1576. Drakoen
Quoting WeatherStudent:
WOW, I seriously do not know who to potentially believe more here, either Drak or Levi23? Since they're both extraordinarily intellegent when it comes to them toroughly knowing how to decipher the many secrets of tropical meteorology this day and age. I'm puzzeled here.


LOL calm down. I like discussing these things with Levi. It's fun. You really gotta pick at everything
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


I think CNET has the old version from back in 2004. The current version is 7.3 for 2008 but has not been available since November 2008


Can you WU mail me the link? Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1625 - 1575

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
77 °F
Overcast