El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Only an hour or so left before the nhc 8:00 update, I am curious to see there cut and pastte message.
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Quoting Patrap:
This Allison was what I was referring to.


Tropical Storm Allison (06/05 - 06/19)


I know the Hurricane Allison just happens to have formed in a similar spot as the disturbance. TS Allison is a real rain maker.
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1670. Drakoen
Hopefully the quicksat will catch the area tonight so we can get an idea of what we are dealing with.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Just for laughs- Link

What am I missing? I just got on and clicked that link and for some reason I was not laughing...
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Historically speaking storms in June starting in the Western Caribbean historically have a tendency of striking Florida. Similiar to this one they start off slow but eventually move up.
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1667. Patrap
This Allison was what I was referring to.


Tropical Storm Allison (06/05 - 06/19)

Lowest MB was 1000mb, 40 Deaths, 5 Billion in Damages
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Allison:



Alma:



Agnes:

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1664. Makoto1
Quoting hydrus:
Alma was not a cat 3 at the time of landfall.


I think he meant at any time, not landfall. And it was cat 3 when passing through the keys anyway.
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Just for laughs- Link
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1662. hydrus
Quoting sky1989:
I found out- the last major hurricane in June was Alma in 1966.
Alma was not a cat 3 at the time of landfall.
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1661. Patrap
Dosent take a Major to Kill and do Billions in Damages.

Allison,Tropical Storm,Houston,...


Only Retired Name from a TS...2001
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1659. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:
Probably stays yellow.


agree
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This one goes back a ways. But she was a doozy!

"audrey track" alt="" />
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1657. hydrus
I think 1957,s AUDREY was the last major hurricane in the U,S.in the month of June.
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Alma started in a similar place as this system and then worked up to Florida. Hopefully that does not happen now.
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1655. sky1989
I found out- the last major hurricane in June was Alma in 1966.
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1654. Makoto1
Quoting sky1989:
When was the last time we had a major hurricane in June?


Alma in 1966 from what I see.. Obviously a long time since.
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Or it could say...While showers have increase along this feature this afternoon it remains disorganize and significant development is not expected at this time.
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1652. Makoto1
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Thats good. That must be a new rule since when I joined in 06 I could post right away.


That was a rule in place in 2008.. Which I didn't like because I joined when things weren't too insane, lol. This won't stop people with accounts who almost exclusively lurk from popping up though.

Watch the next GFS run be a lot different though, especially since it's at 204 hours.
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1651. sky1989
When was the last time we had a major hurricane in June?
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1650. Patrap
1008mb Low..yeah,thats one to worry over..LOL
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1649. IKE
Probably stays yellow.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Remember you have to wait 12 hours for first post, so if something does go down there will likely be a lag before tons of people arrive.


Thats good. That must be a new rule since when I joined in 06 I could post right away.
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Remember you have to wait 12 hours for first post, so if something does go down there will likely be a lag before tons of people arrive.
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1646. sky1989
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Oh my gosh I am not putting shutters up because of this storm. Im putting shutters up because this blog is about to explode.People calm down and stop being paranoid like you never seen a hurricane hit Florida before.


I agree. This is early June anyway. I wouldn't expect too much, although I know anything is possible.
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It will stay code yellow. They will likely add "has changed little in organization today" or "remains disorganized" to the TWO, everything else will be copy and paste.
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1644. Makoto1
Quoting MrstormX:
What do you all think still code yellow at 8:00 forecast, or maybe a bump to Orange. Also could this soon be 93L.


I'd be shocked if it wasn't still yellow... They're expecting it to be quite slow to develop.
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Quoting IKE:


The blog couldn't survive.....@ 204 hrs....


LOL. Yup, it would implode!
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What do you all think still code yellow at 8:00 forecast, or maybe a bump to Orange. Also could this soon be 93L.
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Well you guys and Gals play nice and I'm going to the Board Walk in Kemah..... I will be back own later....


Taco :0)
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Quoting rxse7en:
Nice circulation over Jax now. Wouldn't be surprised to see it develop over open water.

http://tinyurl.com/r4cg9o



I think its still cold core though.
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Oh my gosh I am not putting shutters up because of this storm. Im putting shutters up because this blog is about to explode.People calm down and stop being paranoid like you never seen a hurricane hit Florida before.
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1637. rxse7en
Nice circulation over Jax now. Wouldn't be surprised to see it develop over open water.

http://tinyurl.com/r4cg9o

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1636. Makoto1
Quoting MrstormX:
Florida is going to become part of the atlantic with all this rain.


Well we already lost South Beach..

Also, whoever decided light blue on white was a good idea is insane.
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1635. Drakoen
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1634. Drakoen
There is clearly some turning in the lower levels, based on surface observations in the form of a sharp inverted trough:
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Quoting adrianalynne:
I assume once this area has been declared an invest we can expect runs of the GFDL and HWRF?


Yup.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Florida is going to become part of the atlantic with all this rain.


I was thinking more like The gulf of Mexico

Taco :0)
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I assume once this area has been declared an invest we can expect runs of the GFDL and HWRF?
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1630. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Zilch on the NOGAPS 18z


Yup...again.
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Florida is going to become part of the atlantic with all this rain.
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1628. Drakoen
Zilch on the NOGAPS 18z
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Quoting Drakoen:



I Love That Drakoen .... LOL

Taco:0)

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1626. Drakoen
Quoting zoomiami:


I don't know if a canoe would do it, probably would need an ark.


You'd need a cruise ship.
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1625. Drakoen
.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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