El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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1725. K8eCane
Dear Lord

Did they just HAVE to use Cape Fear NC (really no such place)...Its Wilmington ???
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1723. You made all that, impressive!!
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LOL gotta love the NHC. Hurricane ''Example''
September 17th 2009.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 180228
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EXAMPLE ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2009

...OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE EXAMPLE MOVING ONSHORE...WEATHER SHOULD
GRADUALLY WORSEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO
SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH
POINT NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EXAMPLE WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

EXAMPLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EXAMPLE IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER A LARGE AREA
WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTLINE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 315 MILES. A BUOY LOCATED WEST OF THE HURRICANE RECENTLY REPORTED
WIND GUSTS TO 74 MPH AND 32 FOOT WAVES.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS EXPECTED IN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT
RIVERS.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXAMPLE.

THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...31.9N...73.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Don't ask us.

Might have better luck here- Link



Great reference link. Thanks. :)
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Been reading some articles on the internet and it appears that Apple will be coming out with a 32GB iPhone.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting stormpetrol:
IT would sure be something if Paloma finished the 2008 Season with it hitting the Caymans, mainly the sister islands and if Ana formed from this mess to start out hitting us here in The Caymans to begin 2009 Season.
Not something I would want to see . East End had a good dose of Paloma and Gustav last year.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Pat, did that one feeder band produce much damage when it came through there?


No just a little windy.
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I wish QUIKSCAT would make a run on the carib system.
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You gotta love Google:



Celebrating 25 years of tetris.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1716. lavinia
"But stars are meant to be reached."

Very nice 456. Thank you.

Back to lurking.
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Warm Night

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I was wondering if you were a part of some organization or forecasting for a business of some sort.


Assist rather...I'm not one of big shots yet. But stars are meant to be reached.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
Maybe I use the word out of context but I was having a conversation with other persons across the Caribbean and I don't see the importance of the word?


I was wondering if you were a part of some organization or forecasting for a business of some sort.
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Humidity on the increase in the islands

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Boy it looked like Miami got rocked yesterday!
Yikes!

Stupid Is as Stupid Does...

The video of the girl trying to start her car reminds me of a flood I went through. A few years ago our streets looked like that. All the cars were either stalled out in the middle of the road or parked on any higher ground they could find. And here I am. In a car that was designed to be low to the road. 97 Dodge Intrepid has a wider space between the wheels. ( Please excuse my use of such technical jargon. Lol.) Anyway, I ended up tucked right behind a cement mixer and then an 18 wheeler all the way home. About 30 miles. They pushed the water outward in a V formation so I could get through. The other motorists were looking at me like I was crazy and the police just shook their heads as they were closing the roads behind me. In the years since then somehow I always end up in that same pickle in that same car. My son, who does drive an 18 wheeler just threw his hands up and yelled, "Mom! Thats not an atv!!" Lol.

I don't do it on purpose. And I will not drive into deep water that I don't know the depth of. I just really didn't know what to do at the time. But since my travails I have learned a lesson or two. Mainly and most importantly this...

" Turn around. Don't drown!"

Absolutely true. Doesn't matter if youre going to be late or where you're going. Don't Do It!!

It takes less than a foot of water to float an automobile. And during a flash flood the water rises incredibly fast. And if you ever, God forbid, find yourself trapped in car by rising water, there is one tip I learned. If your power windows are closed because of your stalled engine you can fill your sock up with loose change to bust the window. They do make a device that you pop the window out with. But I don't know what its called. And these windows are made not to break. So its not an easy thing to do at all. Whatever way youre going to try to break it they say aim for the middle of the window.

Sorry for another rambling post but I usually don't have anything to offer by way of knowledge or experience. And the flooding in Miami and the tropical storm talk reminded me of this. 'Tis the season. So be careful out there. That was one of the stupidest things I've ever done! And believe me it has some stiff competition. :)

Remember: Turn around. Don't drown!
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Maybe I use the word out of context but I was having a conversation with other persons across the Caribbean and I don't see the importance of the word?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1709. K8eCane
<------ As you can see Pat....errr maybe not....Im a little afraid of water and storms
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Quoting Weather456:
Some of the my colleagues and I were discussing where this potential system will go if it forms and we seem to have agreed that it depends on how shallow the system becomes. Shallow layer steering would take the system north with a westward bias and this motion is expected if the system remains weak. But as it gets stronger, if it does, the deeper layer steering is almost due north with an easterly bias due to a mid-upper trough. The former solution seems to fit reasonably with the current 72-96 hr forecast since the trough is not expected to affect the lower level flow during that period.


Colleagues?
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1707. Patrap
I thought my glasses needed cleaning..
Yup..they do.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
1705. K8eCane
ooops!!
sorry pat
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1704. Patrap
I made no such Post.


Slander, EH...?

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
1703. K8eCane
Quoting Patrap:


this thing thats swirling in "the gulf"of the carolinas (sorry press) what is it?
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1702. Patrap
We have colleagues,..on a Saturday?

Go figure,..DO they SHAVE?

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Some of the my colleagues and I were discussing where this potential system will go if it forms and we seem to have agreed that it depends on how shallow the system becomes. Shallow layer steering would take the system north with a westward bias and this motion is expected if the system remains weak. But as it gets stronger, if it does, the deeper layer steering is almost due north with an easterly bias due to a mid-upper trough. The former solution seems to fit reasonably with the current 72-96 hr forecast since the trough is not expected to affect the lower level flow during that period.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
I guess got home from eating out. Why hasn't NHC labeled the blob as Invest 93L yet?


Don't ask us.

Might have better luck here- Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
I guess got home from eating out. Why hasn't NHC labeled the blob as Invest 93L yet?
Quoting Drakoen:
Where is Adrian!?!?!?!?!?


Iam here lol i went to bestbuy with wifey.I see the 18zGFS wants me again.

Nice track there by the way (hurricane king).
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
Quoting Nikko:


StormFreakyisher you deserve your name!

I know right!I'm so freaky yay me.Well I do know not to rely on the GFS models right now at least for the long range because it seems to be changing from time to time.
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1695. IKE
Quoting 2009hurricane:


Why?


It was a joke, but it would be difficult.
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1694. Patrap
-- EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page --

Model Cycle: 2009060618


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
1693. Nikko
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
In 204 hours it makes landfall in Miami and goes up the whole east coast of south Florida.Sheez imagine that!The eye and the worst winds just rolling over every big city including Ft.Laud.,Boca Raton,West Palm,Port St Lucie,etc up the coast.


StormFreakyisher you deserve your name!
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In 204 hours it makes landfall in Miami and goes up the whole east coast of south Florida.Sheez imagine that!The eye and the worst winds just rolling over every big city including Ft.Laud.,Boca Raton,West Palm,Port St Lucie,etc up the coast.
Link
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1688. Patrap
Gustav outer Band arriving Uptown NOLA,Aug 31 2008


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
1687. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Quoting AWeatherLover:
Hey all! Looking forward to the NHC update since I haven't had a chance to look at the models today. I was working at the local NWS office yesterday and it was interesting seeing them put together the forecast. He said he preferred to go with the ECWMF for long term right now but that the GFS was usually pretty reliable in the short term. Can anyone post any pics of the models? I'm currently viewing the blog from my phone so I can't view loops. TIA!


The GFS puts it over South Florida slowing moving north on June 14, 15, and 16.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Hey all! Looking forward to the NHC update since I haven't had a chance to look at the models today. I was working at the local NWS office yesterday and it was interesting seeing them put together the forecast. He said he preferred to go with the ECWMF for long term right now but that the GFS was usually pretty reliable in the short term. Can anyone post any pics of the models? I'm currently viewing the blog from my phone so I can't view loops. TIA!
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Magnitude 6.0 - NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

2009 June 06 20:33:28 UTC
Versión en Español

DetailsMapsScientific & Technical
Where can I find...?
Earthquake Details

Magnitude
6.0
Date-Time
Saturday, June 06, 2009 at 20:33:28 UTC
Saturday, June 06, 2009 at 05:33:28 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
23.869°N, 46.099°W
Depth
10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
Distances
2160 km (1340 miles) ENE of SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 3.6 km (2.2 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters
NST=290, Nph=290, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=0.83 sec, Gp= 40°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
Source
USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
us2009hnca
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Did you feel it? Report shaking and damage at your location. You can also view a map displaying accumulated data from your report and others.
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
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Quoting IKE:
That TWO reads like it has a shot in the future and notice the direction...NNW.


Yes different then the NW we thought before.
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Quoting Patrap:
This Allison was what I was referring to.


Tropical Storm Allison (06/05 - 06/19)

Lowest MB was 1000mb, 40 Deaths, 5 Billion in Damages


I remeber that Allison. Houston went under quick! It was sort of like the issue with Huricane Humberto. When everyone went to bed that night the locals were saying there would be nothing to it. Sometimes you just never know what you're going to get.

And as far as tropical storms are concerned, I made light of Edouard the other day. Have since read the report on it and found he was not such a joke for everyone. Other than millions in damages, one man lost his life drowning in the mouth of the Mississippi. So I apologize for my flipancy if it hurt anyone.

Another tropical storm that stands out to me is Erin. Caused major flooding from central TX to Oklahoma. Loked unbelievably like a hurricane over Ok on satellite and radar.
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1680. IKE
That TWO reads like it has a shot in the future and notice the direction...NNW.
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1679. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Quoting Acemmett90:

agreed Storms hitting fla or anywhere else are NOT FUNNEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LOL at "funney".
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IT would sure be something if Paloma finished the 2008 Season with it hitting the Caymans, mainly the sister islands and if Ana formed from this mess to start out hitting us here in The Caymans to begin 2009 Season.
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Only an hour or so left before the nhc 8:00 update, I am curious to see there cut and pastte message.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.