El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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earlier i thought that the caribbean system was a noshow now things have turned around so quickly how is it going to go to florida going nnw
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Anyone else?
So far we actually might get an Ana out of this
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2173. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I don't think SJ was referring to his "land-phoon" but a system developing in 24hrs near Andros Island, initially taking aim at him. Weak system, but who knows.


I am sure that SJ of all people noticed that the GFS forms it from the weak low still over the SE US coast that used to be his land-phoon lol.

Believe me he will never let me off the hook with this one...
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2172. Patrap
pssssssssstt.new Entry posted by Dr. Masters.

Ya'lls powers of Observation are slipping,LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
Wind shear is still high but it was 80 knots over Jamaica last Thursday, 40 knots today, what will be the value on Wednesday?

Trends is the key to monitoring.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2170. Levi32
Quoting futuremet:


LOL that is a different low


I was talking about the system in the Caribbean. Sorry for the confusion


LOL sounds like we both misunderstood each other. SJ and I were talking about the Florida low. Sorry about that.
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Patrap

Women are models too you know. There is nothing wrong with saying model consensus lol.
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2168. K8eCane
....and now i will be quiet and get back to cleaning. Sorry everybody if that comment was inappropriate
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Quoting Levi32:


That's why you can't call it tropical, but it is under a cut-off upper low and if allowed to sit over those waters it would become sub-tropical. I'm not saying it will develop just that it wouldn't be a fully cold-core system. If you want a computer to agree than here it is.


LOL that is a different low


I was talking about the system in the Caribbean. Sorry for the confusion
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah it's the silly "land-phoon" that SJ keeps tracking on the US southeast coast lol. I want it to disappear so he can stop!

It may reinvigorate a bit over water when it drifts southeast but it gets picked up by the westerlies pretty fast so I doubt it will have the time to organize into anything significant.


I don't think SJ was referring to his "land-phoon" but a system developing in 24hrs near Andros Island, initially taking aim at him. Weak system, but who knows.
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2164. K8eCane
actually...i meant baroTROPICALLY
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2163. Patrap
con·sen·sus (kn-snss)
n.
1. An opinion or position reached by a group as a whole: "Among political women . . . there is a clear consensus about the problems women candidates have traditionally faced" Wendy Kaminer. See Usage Note at redundancy.
2. General agreement or accord: government by consensus.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
2162. K8eCane
Quoting Patrap:
I just Lub sexy Met talk in da morning...


for some reason the word baroclinical sounds
....erotic?...i guess i am just too hooked on the weather
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2160. Levi32
Quoting futuremet:


This system is developing in a relatively barotropically warmed environment.


That's why you can't call it tropical, but it is under a cut-off upper low and if allowed to sit over those waters it would become sub-tropical. I'm not saying it will develop just that it wouldn't be a fully cold-core system. If you want a computer to agree then here it is.
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This basically means that the ECMWF may have been right all along.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Exactly, so everything finally begins to fall into its corresponding places. Ooh, come out, come out, come out from where ever your hidding in deathcasters. :)


Wind shear is still high- Link

:P
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2156. Patrap

Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product
Developed by the
Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
out of curiosity what do you think the chances are of the low in the Caribbean becoming Ana,
I'll go out on a limb and say 50%
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah it's the silly "land-phoon" that SJ keeps tracking on the US southeast coast lol. I want it to disappear so he can stop!

It may reinvigorate a bit over water when it drifts southeast but it gets picked up by the westerlies pretty fast so I doubt it will have the time to organize into anything significant.


between 150-204 in the GFS long range run it has our carribean system stalling off the coast of florda
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2152. Patrap
I just Lub sexy Met talk in da morning...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
Quoting Levi32:


Well it sure isn't going to be tropical and it won't be fully cold-core either.


This system is developing in a relatively barotropically warmed environment.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Sure is Taz- Link

80 knots around 40W.



and that wont be going down any time soon
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Quoting futuremet:
NOGAPS is establishing consensus with the GFS. If the 12Z ECMWF remains as consistent as it has been over the past days, then this should be establish adequate consensus to determine that something will develop.


So the NOGAPS jumps on board.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2147. Levi32
Quoting Twinkster:
is it me or does the 12Z GFS have a weak low stalling off the florida east coast for a couple of days


Yeah it's the silly "land-phoon" that SJ keeps tracking on the US southeast coast lol. I want it to disappear so he can stop!

It may reinvigorate a bit over water when it drifts southeast but it gets picked up by the westerlies pretty fast so I doubt it will have the time to organize into anything significant.
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NOGAPS is establishing consensus with the GFS. If the 12Z ECMWF remains as consistent as it has been over the past days, then this should establish adequate consensus to determine that something will develop.
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is it me or does the 12Z GFS have a weak low stalling off the florida east coast for a couple of days
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2143. Patrap
I guess we will see these next on some Post.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
Quoting Tazmanian:




wind shear is too high you are jumping the gune on things here


Sure is Taz- Link

80 knots around 40W.
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2141. Levi32
Quoting futuremet:
I do not think this will be subtropical Levi.


Well it sure isn't going to be tropical and it won't be fully cold-core either.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Photobucket


Current obs, show a mid-level support a mid-level feature

12 UTC 7 June 2009

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I do not think this will be subtropical Levi.
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Photobucket
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Quoting Acemmett90:
Heres A nice But worrying View of the atlantic




wind shear is too high you are jumping the gune on things here
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It's about to pour here
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2133. Levi32
Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all

So any thoughts on a potential system out of the Bahamas? Or is the GFS out to lunch again?


I don't think the GFS is crazy for strengthening a low there but I doubt it would have enough time to organize into anything the NHC would name. It gets picked up by the westerlies fairly fast. Usually sub-tropical systems need a lot of time to organize.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:



Luckily for us, as a very weak, but very weak 1009 mb low.
The low may be weak, but if it stalls. It will dump alot of rain.
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2131. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:


weak low through south florida.Looks like moisture might be on the increase next week.


Agreed. Excellent chances for rain from this disturbance.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29883
Quoting WeatherStudent:



Ooh, OK, well then, I apologies to all three of y'all then. Case close.



thats ok so may be for now on start looking at the commets a little more then things like this wont go on ???
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Afternoon all

So any thoughts on a potential system out of the Bahamas? Or is the GFS out to lunch again?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.