Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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1077. PensacolaDoug
2:25 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting fmbill:


Wow...now there's a picture I didn't want in my head. LOL!!!


Thats not what i saw in there....
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 670
1076. MahFL
2:24 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Seems the Brazilian Navy does not know what a plane looks like.......
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3850
1075. nrtiwlnvragn
1:59 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
New Blog
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11346
1074. CaneWarning
1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
It looks like the west coast of Florida is in for some storms today. There is a line offshore and it looks decent. The heating of the day hasn't even kicked up today. I wonder if we could see anything severe?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1073. severstorm
1:49 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
StormW Yes it was fun, First time there. Not a whole lot of people there this time of year. Weather was great!!
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 991
1072. NEwxguy
1:46 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Hey,Tim, see your Rays got back to .500,now for yankee stadium
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
1071. StormSurgeon
1:46 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
If only this would happen in my lifetime.....

The Juice
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1069. NEwxguy
1:43 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Thanks, Storm,sounds like a typical early June.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
1067. StormSurgeon
1:42 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting StormW:
Good morning all!

I have a new synopsis posted. Thanks!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JUNE 05, 2008 ISSUED 9:30 A.M. EDT


Mornin Storm, things are kind of dull aren't they.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1066. scottsvb
1:40 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
If anything does form in the carribean near Honduras...it will take at probably 5-10days for it to exit...probably towards eastern Cuba/Haiti or towards belieze by next weekend. Florida looks very slim to none..but things may change some.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
1065. severstorm
1:40 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Hey All, Just got back from the Outer Banks, Fishing was great. Landed a few sharks,a few scates, and a few blues. Hi StormW.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 991
1063. TampaSpin
1:32 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Looks like the Ghost of Ana is still showming up 5 days out on MOdels! Something we need to start watching when it gets to 3 days out.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1062. fmbill
1:29 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting StormSurgeon:


They're great! I keep one in the toilet.....LOL


Wow...now there's a picture I didn't want in my head. LOL!!!
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 469
1061. fmbill
1:28 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting CaneWarning:


I'm not one to believe in conspiracy theories, but this whole situation is certainly ripe for some strange theories to come out. I have never seen a story be so misreported in my life. They tell you one thing and come back and say the opposite the next day. I am starting to think there is more to all of this than we are being told.


Amelia Earhart?
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 469
1060. StormSurgeon
1:27 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting Ossqss:
All you need is a plecostomus and the problem goes away and the pool gets cleaned to boot.

Link


They're great! I keep one in the toilet.....LOL
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1059. Orcasystems
1:22 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
KOG
Yesterday we hit a high on 40.2 at the house... right now its only 15.... BIG difference
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
1058. MarcoIsland
1:22 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting:
.48 inches in the last 20minutes!!!,well its about time!!!!


Heavy t-storms last night around 1-2am here on SW FL coast. My pws alarm was set off about 1:30am for rain/hr at 4.20 inches per hour.

We ended up getting about 2.25 inches overnight and 2.55 inches total for the last 24 hours and 3.74 inches since June 1. Rainy season has really started with a bang so to speak.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
1057. HIEXPRESS
1:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
1032. Chicklit
Sailboats & lightening...hmmm. Doesn't the mast act like a lightening rod?

Yes, Chicklit, taller conductive objects generally attract lightning that would otherwise strike within an estimated 45degree "cone of protection". The charge still has to get to the ground (water). Unless your mast extends through the bottom of the boat and into the water, it needs to be bonded with a heavy gauge conductor, routed safely, to a conductor in the water with sufficient surface area to effectively dissipate the charge.

Like airplanes, (more)lightning dissipation systems are designed to handle most common lightning bolts. There are however larger than normal bolts that, depending on who you ask, could have peak currents up to 450,000 amps - kind of difficult to design or build for.

I have to maintain some lightning protection equipment, and about one out of every 5 lightning bolts that hits obliterates the equipment requiring replacement instead of resetting and fuses. That 1:10,000 bolt is a scary thought.

I have seen lightning detour in a circular path around a taller conductor (transmission lines) to strike a much shorter pole directly beneath them. It is rare events like that that get you - don't take chances if there is no reason to.



Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
1056. StormSurgeon
1:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting CaneWarning:


I'm not one to believe in conspiracy theories, but this whole situation is certainly ripe for some strange theories to come out. I have never seen a story be so misreported in my life. They tell you one thing and come back and say the opposite the next day. I am starting to think there is more to all of this than we are being told.


We may never know. All I can say is that my prayers go to the families involved.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1055. Ossqss
1:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
All you need is a plecostomus and the problem goes away and the pool gets cleaned to boot.

Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
1054. Orcasystems
1:20 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting CaneWarning:


Orca - I wouldn't advice you to eat 200,000 koi eggs. LOL


There was a feeding frenzy on the pond.. I uploaded the pics to the blog photos
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
1053. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:18 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting CaneWarning:


Orca I think you may need a bigger pond... wow 200,000 eggs?!?
put on ebay 200,000 @5 bucks each is a cool mill sounds like a good business venture
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1052. CaneWarning
1:17 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am hoping that nature takes its course..and they all get eaten.... with my luck... they will all survive..every last one of them.


Orca - I wouldn't advise you to eat 200,000 koi eggs. LOL
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1051. CaneWarning
1:16 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting Ossqss:


There has been much in the way of controversy on just the facts on this item. That in itself is not good. They reported there was much lightning and TWC the other night said it was not within 150 nm of lightning from the 2 services that monitor it world wide. They have released more detailed info on the transmissions from the plane, but can we believe that ?

Link


I'm not one to believe in conspiracy theories, but this whole situation is certainly ripe for some strange theories to come out. I have never seen a story be so misreported in my life. They tell you one thing and come back and say the opposite the next day. I am starting to think there is more to all of this than we are being told.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1050. Orcasystems
1:16 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting CaneWarning:


Orca I think you may need a bigger pond... wow 200,000 eggs?!?


I am hoping that nature takes its course..and they all get eaten.... with my luck... they will all survive..every last one of them.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
1049. StormSurgeon
1:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't even watch TWC anymore ever since my father informed me that when Ivan was nearing and over the Cayman Islands in 2004 TWC never even mentioned us. It seems like we are not big enough to matter to them. Nice to know people on here remeber us when we are threatened by a storm.


Also, no offense, but who wants to watch 8th month pregnant women do weather forcasts?
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1048. CaneWarning
1:14 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:
On a side note... our large Koi named Dino (one would assume he will need a name change) Spawned in our pond two nights ago... anyone want some Koi.. they lay as many as 200,000 eggs :(


Orca I think you may need a bigger pond... wow 200,000 eggs?!?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1047. Ossqss
1:14 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Can you believe anything you read these days?

Airbus


There has been much in the way of controversy on just the facts on this item. That in itself is not good. They reported there was much lightning and TWC the other night said it was not within 150 nm of lightning from the 2 services that monitor it world wide. They have released more detailed info on the transmissions from the plane, but can we believe that ?

Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
1046. NEwxguy
1:13 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting StormSurgeon:


It will come. IKE, looks like you'll have a little weather before Mr. Sunshine arrives.

Mobile Radar


Thanks for the words of encouragement,the sooner it comes,the better,our summers are too short up here.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
1045. stillwaiting
1:13 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
I'm begining to wonder if the SL over NC survives and makes it offshore far enough south,could it turn into TD2????,probably not,I know how cold the waters off the delmarva are,if it goes over the GS it could happen,IMO!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1044. StormSurgeon
1:13 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


They are in sequence from 90 to 99 and the recycled. They use the 90s for invests


.....but why 90's? There must be a reason for it. Dang, more research...
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1043. NEwxguy
1:11 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Don't understand that report no debris found, I thought they were reporting debris was scattered over a 3 mile area
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
1042. Orcasystems
1:10 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
On a side note... our large Koi named Dino (one would assume he will need a name change) Spawned in our pond two nights ago... anyone want some Koi.. they lay as many as 200,000 eggs :(
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
1041. panamasteve
1:10 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting Chicklit:
Sailboats & lightening...hmmm. Doesn't the mast act like a lightening rod?

That's it for me for a while. Over and out!
Link


Yes, the mast makes a great lightning rod! I have seen a few boats that have had every electrical device on the boat fried. As a former live-aboard sailor, we avoided as many thunderstorms as possible--but when we got caught, all electronics were disconnected from power and any antennas. We also would attach battery jumper cables to the shrouds(metal cable that support the mast on the sides) and throw the other end in the water.

The mast went through the forward cabin to the keel--when ever there was a storm, we retreated to the aft cabin--as far away from the "lightning rod" as possible.
Member Since: June 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
1040. stormwatcherCI
1:10 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting stillwaiting:
yea the twc has changed alot over the last 10yrs..no more john hope:(
I don't even watch TWC anymore ever since my father informed me that when Ivan was nearing and over the Cayman Islands in 2004 TWC never even mentioned us. It seems like we are not big enough to matter to them. Nice to know people on here remeber us when we are threatened by a storm.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
1039. Cavin Rawlins
1:05 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting BIPCman:
Please forgive the dumb question, but...
How are tropical disturbances named (e.g. 90L)?
The names don't seem to be unique, or in sequence.
Thanks for the help.
Ray
Melbourne Beach, Florida


They are in sequence from 90 to 99 and the recycled. They use the 90s for invests
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1038. StormSurgeon
1:04 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Can you believe anything you read these days?

Airbus
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1037. nrtiwlnvragn
1:02 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting BIPCman:
Please forgive the dumb question, but...
How are tropical disturbances named (e.g. 90L)?
The names don't seem to be unique, or in sequence.
Thanks for the help.
Ray
Melbourne Beach, Florida


STORM NAME = Literal storm name or TCcyx where

cy = Annual cyclone number: 00 through 99

x = Subregion code: W, A, B, S, P, C, E.

A - Arabian Sea

B - Bay of Bengal

C - Central Pacific

E - Eastern Pacific

L - Atlantic

P - South Pacific (135oE - 120oW)

S - South IO (20oE - 135oE)

W - Western Pacific


storm-number =

01 - 30 "numbered storms with forecasts issued and numbers are *not* recycled until the next season."


90 - 99 "Invest, areas of interest watched by forecasters for possible development and these numbers are re-used periodically throughout the season"


80 - 89 "Internal training storm numbers which are to always be ignored"
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11346
1036. StormSurgeon
1:00 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting NEwxguy:
GM,fellow bloggers,another cool damp day in the northeast,taking a long time for the transition from early spring weather to the feel of summer.


It will come. IKE, looks like you'll have a little weather before Mr. Sunshine arrives.

Mobile Radar
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1035. NEwxguy
12:56 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
GM,fellow bloggers,another cool damp day in the northeast,taking a long time for the transition from early spring weather to the feel of summer.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
1034. Buhdog
12:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
I must say I enjoy "backwards flow" living here on the west coast of fl....rain in the mornings and late night and clear in the afternoon is kinda of cool. only happens about 20% of the time if i had to guess.
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
1033. StormSurgeon
12:54 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting IKE:


LOL.

TGIF:)

Had a bad thunderstorm this morning around 3 that woke me up.

Now mostly cloudy and 70.0 outside my window.


I'll send a litle sun your way. It's great to be off today, I'll hang around the blog until the bar opens....heh heh.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1032. Chicklit
12:51 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Sailboats & lightening...hmmm. Doesn't the mast act like a lightening rod?

That's it for me for a while. Over and out!
Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
1031. BIPCman
12:50 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Please forgive the dumb question, but...
How are tropical disturbances named (e.g. 90L)?
The names don't seem to be unique, or in sequence.
Thanks for the help.
Ray
Melbourne Beach, Florida
1030. IKE
12:46 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Could you go ahead and fix the rest of them? I think they're a little goofy.........like me....LOL


LOL.

TGIF:)

Had a bad thunderstorm this morning around 3 that woke me up.

Now mostly cloudy and 70.0 outside my window.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1029. stillwaiting
12:46 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
yea the twc has changed alot over the last 10yrs..no more john hope:(
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1028. HIEXPRESS
12:45 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
1027. Chicklit
12:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2009
Not a good day for the Theme Parks:
758 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

.NOW...

AT 755 AM...THE STATEWIDE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG AND EAST OF THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...COMING ASHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN SARASOTA AND FORT MYERS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM AROUND NAPLES TO PORT SAINT LUCIE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THROUGH 10 AM...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WILL SPREAD OVER LAKE...ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES IMPACTING LEESBURG...THE THEME PARKS...METRO ORLANDO AND ITS SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES...KISSIMMEE AND SANFORD.

Stay off the roads, especially I-4, if you're in the Metro Orlando area today.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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