Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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677. beell
Is this really a trough split, Levi?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
My New self rule press..

Breath,relax,aim,stop..post

LOL


.......and of course.....observe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If there's something strange
on the GFS
Who ya gonna call?
GHOSTBUSTERS

If there's something weird
and it don't look good
Who ya gonna call?
GHOSTBUSTERS

An invisible storm
moving over your house
Who ya gonna call?
GHOSTBUSTERS

If ya all alone
pick up the phone
and call
GHOSTBUSTERS

I ain't afraid of no ghosts
I ain't afraid of no ghosts

I ain't afraid of no ghosts
I ain't afraid of no ghosts
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I can't believe nobody has mentioned the Hebert Box yet.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
hmmm... the latest gfs shows it pretty close to Jamaica. We might get some action early.
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Quoting Patrap:
Amen to that SJ,..A-men

You gonna be in BB stormchat tonight?


Can I come?
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BBL gonna make do a quick jog before the Magic beats up on the Lakers......LOL
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Quoting futuremet:
What is up with the GFS this year? This is getting out of hand.



It's not really that crazy. We already know that storms forecasted more than 5 days out are more than likely never to occur. What this tells us is that the pattern is favorable for TC genesis in the Caribbean in 6-10 days, and the latter half of June could give us 1 or 2 storms in my opinion. That's gonna make everybody go absolutely wild, but that doesn't mean the rest of the season will be bad. It's going to be a lower-number year, but higher risk to land.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting Weather456:


I aint fraid a no ghost lol


I am.......ROFLMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
Who ya gonna call ....LMAO



I aint fraid a no ghost lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Link

hurricane hollow live 8 pm
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
My New self rule press..

Breath,relax,aim,stop..post

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
What is up with the GFS this year? This is getting out of hand.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
so where is bill going on the mode run tonight


oh wait we have not yet have anna yet or have we


Bill? lol

More like Claudette.

But seriously, the potential storm is likey to shift north and follow the weakness but it depends on the timming of a number of features namely the upper trough over the Eastern CONUS and subtropical ridge within the forecast time frames. It wouln't worry so much about where will it go until it has formed.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Who ya gonna call ....LMAO

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pat...I hate like heck to admit this in public...but...SJ does make a great point there...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
so where is bill going on the mode run tonight


oh wait we have not yet have anna yet or have we
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
Quoting beell:
Ok, Levi, I'll have to look closer. But I am not following you at all.


Sorry. Look at the GFS 48 hours out. The shortwave trough currently over the southeastern states starts splitting away from the main flow and dips down into the eastern Gulf of Mexico:



At 72 hours it continues to split, but the GFS starts drifting it eastward.



By 96 hours it's clear out by the Carolinas. This eastward progression isn't typical of trough splits, and the models usually have a hard time with them. The piece that splits off should slowly drift south through the eastern GOM and towards the NW Caribbean or western Cuba.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Yep Pat, thanks for the reminder.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Amen to that SJ,..A-men

You gonna be in BB stormchat tonight?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
Quoting Weather456:


Honeywell Wireless Weather Station for around 100-140 and you can use weather display or WU to upload the data to WUndergound.

It is cheap compared to others with similar features

You get a

main display unit
USB cord
barometer
2 hydrothermometers
1 rain guage
1 anemometer/wind vane combo and
UV sensor




Righteous!! Thank you!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The weather here right now is just stupid....

Weather Underground PWS IBCVICTO20
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Drak, it was either a "stop" or a "high five"

If you are not perceived correctly; then it really doesn't matter what you intended. Hard enough concept to deal with face to face; much less in cyberspace.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
I would rather it go off to the east and not make a direct hit at florida, so the current models are hopefully accurate.

What I don't want is a track like this:
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
653. beell
Ok, Levi, I'll have to look closer. But I am not following you at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gtodude:
Speaking of PWS's, I've been thinking of getting an inexpensive one that is compatible with software to upload it to WU. Any good finds out there? Maybe a used one by chance?


Honeywell Wireless Weather Station for around 100-140 and you can use weather display or WU to upload the data to WUndergound.

It is cheap compared to others with similar features

You get a

main display unit
USB cord
barometer
2 hydrothermometers
1 rain guage
1 anemometer/wind vane combo and
UV sensor

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
650. beell
Run the 1000-500mb thickness loop. Looks believable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
Why is the GFS too far east?


My explanation is back in post 439. The GFS has a problem splitting energy.

The GFS is also treating the trough split all wrong....look where it has it at 96 hours. Clear out near the Carolinas...

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455

RiverCAM

The Miss River is 6 blocks to my west and we get a Cooling effect and drying effect from the Winds blowing wNw over the Colder Miss River water..


..that water is still in the 60's this time of year.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
647. IKE
Here's the dew point map from WU...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
646. beell
Why is the GFS too far east?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Speaking of PWS's, I've been thinking of getting an inexpensive one that is compatible with software to upload it to WU. Any good finds out there? Maybe a used one by chance?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MJO expected in the Western Hemisphere soon

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Im on the River Ike..

big Difference,..in those 2 stations,Like 9 Miles for one.
The lake is 81 Degrees and with a N wind the Dewpoint is always higher there.

Just alil local info..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
LOL is that suppose to intimidate me Weather456? Real mature.
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641. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
The Land Swirl ushered in a Cool Front here in Se. La..and that is welcomed every June..

Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 7 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
86.7 F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 22%
Dew Point: 43 F


That PWS needs adjusting....dew point of 43?

Here's the obs. from the Lakefront Airport....

"New Orleans Lakefront, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 9 sec ago
Clear
83 F
Clear
Humidity: 60%
Dew Point: 68 F
Wind: 15 mph from the WNW
Pressure: 29.77 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 86 F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Drakoen:


The GFS has the low in the same spot for 2 days. It's not a very progressive solution. Looking at the steering flow the GFS give a lot more credit to the trough than the other models which feature the Bermuda high ridge holding in place a little longer with a flatter mid level trough.


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Patrap:
If the MJO collides with the NAO..and the ACE increases,. does the JFV post increase?

Opines..?


Depends if the Drakster thinks it will hit South Florida.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
The Land Swirl ushered in a Cool Front here in Se. La..and that is welcomed every June..

Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 7 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
86.7 F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 22%
Dew Point: 43 F
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
Crazy severe storms in Seattle
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If the MJO collides with the NAO..and the ACE increases,. does the JFV post increase?

Opines..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
next the gfs will be showing this

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
Quoting StormJunkie:


And the radar...

A little more convection here and maybe we could get a landphoon???


Lol, doubt it but that little bugger was warm-core when it moved inland. I commented on it in my blog.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Cuban Coast - in the eastern semicircle

Highest winds 50 knots
lowest pressure 1002 mb

Rather high for those winds but the models does not really show the exact MSLP of a disturbance.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076


And the radar...

A little more convection here and maybe we could get a landphoon???
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Quoting CaneWarning:
MJO anyone?


Too much...
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
MJO anyone?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
And that might be Claudette off the South Carolina coast.

Thank God the tropics don't listen to the GFS.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
I see a Lake Huron Land Cane Image coming "Vary" soon...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.