Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Interesting talk on Barometer Bob - not too late to join us all.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting aquak9:
It's coming to Florida.

Anybody else?


Ya there was a scary model earlier showing it with an eye GFS 12z I believe. I just saw one pusing it of more towards Jamaica so who knows.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting MrstormX:
Am I wrong or are some trends putting this system through hilly regions of Cuba, it may get shredded alive.


Too early to think about things like that. We don't even have a system to shread yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Am I wrong or are some trends putting this system through hilly regions of Cuba, it may get shredded alive.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
It's coming to Florida.

Anybody else?
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Quoting futuremet:


I don't like calling people wishcasters. Meteorologists are not robots, and are not 100 percent neutral for an outcome. Some of us want the storm to hit us, while others do not. Now you made find this inhumane and harsh for someone to want a storm to come to their location, but you have to understand that it is this enthusiasm that actually makes some of them becoming interested in meteorology. Storm chasers are quintessence of this because they are thrilled by these storms. Their passion for storm chasing actually benefits the scientific community, because it provides with them with valuable data.

Can this desire for a possible outcome be detrimental?

Yes, because if a meteorologist is too supportive of an outcome, the forecast will be biased. We need to make sure that we look at the facts as it is, and not try to go beyond it, or dismantling it it to fit our forecast.

Example of a wishcast statement

"It will hit Florida"__eddye


Such statement has nothing to back it up.


Well put Future, but I have retort at this time.

Stealth
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713

I should have quoted you instead, not eddye. lol
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
718: http://irc.hurricanehollow.org/
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting Weather456:


Link? TIA


Link
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaneWarning:
Is everyone listening to Barometer Bob? He's talking about the GFS.


Link? TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


AOI #1

AOI #2
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I'm waiting for all the wishcasters to say its coming to Florida!


I don't like calling people wishcasters. Meteorologists are not robots, and are not 100 percent neutral for an outcome. Some of us want the storm to hit us, while others do not. Now you made find this inhumane and harsh for someone to want a storm to come to their location, but you have to understand that it is this enthusiasm that actually makes some of them becoming interested in meteorology. Storm chasers are quintessence of this because they are thrilled by these storms. Their passion for storm chasing actually benefits the scientific community, because it provides with them with valuable data.

Can this desire for a possible outcome be detrimental?

Yes, because if a meteorologist is too supportive of an outcome, the forecast will be biased. We need to make sure that we look at the facts as it is, and not try to go beyond it, or dismantling it it to fit our forecast.

Example of a wishcast statement

"It will hit Florida"__eddye


Such statement has nothing to back it up.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Is everyone listening to Barometer Bob? He's talking about the GFS.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Patrap:
SOS,creamed Beef over Biscuits..a Naval Staple every morning. He Musta been a Jarhead at some point.


That was our platoon moto.....CREAMED BEEF! I loved it, loved the food, love my comrades.........long time ago though. Now I love WU..........how sad.......or how fantastic!
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it's coming to florida.
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SOS,creamed Beef over Biscuits..a Naval Staple every morning. He Musta been a Jarhead at some point.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Quoting Patrap:
Oooh Rah..! back atcha SS


I still remeber in Germany our company comander would yell "company, attention!" and then my platoon sergeant would scream "platoon, attention!", Then we would hollar, all at once.....CREAMED BEEF!!! I still to this day can't figure out why we yelled that. We ate pork chops, didn't you?
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I'm waiting for all the wishcasters to say its coming to Florida!
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Quoting futuremet:
The GFS' track seem somewhat reasonable. Because the GFS is expecting it to be quite vigorous, it has a greater chance of curving northeastward. The stronger the cyclone, the more the effects of the Corf will be felt.


That's true and you may be right. We can't speculate about the track until we actually have a system out there. We have nothing yet.
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Join us in StormChat Live on the Barometer Bob Show.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Quoting Weather456:
futuremet,

when did you join WU?, did not remember in early 08.


I joined WU during July of 08
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Oooh Rah..! back atcha SS
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
The GFS' track seem somewhat reasonable. Because the GFS is expecting it to be quite vigorous, it has a greater chance of curving northeastward. The stronger the cyclone, the more the effects of the Corf will be felt. The absence of an adjacent ridge will further allow it to curve out to the Atlantic. Now, where and will it curve is yet to be seen. IF this system materialize is yet to be seen,
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
futuremet,

when did you join WU?, did not remember in early 08.
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Sorry Pat, oh, by the way

Semper Fi
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Quoting futuremet:
I could only find EWP forecasts. Anyone has a link to the CFS and the GFS?


Here at the very bottom of the page

Tampa I don't know where you're getting that but the next upward pulse is coming in about 5 days.
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I could only find EWP forecasts. Anyone has a link to the CFS and the GFS?
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
I just found something out if this forms it will be named "Ana" which passed over P"ana"ma.LOL
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Gulf coast, MS to FLA will be clearing out for a nice weekend........except for the peninsula.

Link
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Quoting futuremet:
Levi

You have to understand that we will be at the negative phase of the MJO throughout the rest of June.What is more, the GFS is expecting this to develop during the peak of the negative phase--that is very unlikely.

The GFS has been forecasting the scenario that we are seeing unraveling now since last week. I actually found this quite sensible, since it had forecast it to form during the peak MJO pulses.

Although tropical cyclogenesis over the next two weeks is almost preposterous, it is not impossible; there are other factors that kindle tropical cyclone development.

Keep in mind that the GFS has been doing this since the end of April.



Yep we are in a negative MJO position now.....the next uplift will not occur until late July/August...just in the heat of the season...i pointed this out in my update....

TampaSpins 2009 Outlook
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Quoting futuremet:
Levi

You have to understand that we will be at the negative phase of the MJO throughout the rest of June.What is more, the GFS is expecting this to develop during the peak of the negative phase--that is very unlikely.

The GFS has been forecasting the scenario that we are seeing unraveling now since last week. I actually found this quite sensible, since it had forecast it to form during the peak MJO pulses.

Although tropical cyclogenesis over the next two weeks is almost preposterous, it is not impossible; there are other factors that kindle tropical cyclone development.

Keep in mind that the GFS has been doing this since the end of April.



456 beat me to it....he's correct. The MJO upward motion pulse will be here in 6-10 days, and will remain during most of the 2nd half of june.

Also this isn't insane stuff here....lots of El Nino years have early June storms before the official nino sets in during the middle of the summer.
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Tonight's wave beginning to move in......

Mobile Radar
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futuremet ,

Do you know the EWP model is more theory than dynamic like the GFS and CFS

GFS



CFS

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All right I am done with school and summer is here so I have all the time in the world to watch any distubances.Looks like the disturbance is just passing over Panama then our blog will be chaos!Once I post,it will be down halfway through the blog page in a few seconds and no one would even realized it or read it.Man we are going to get really punded with 90s next week in S.F. Darn it though;will be hot but wet because of this low that may affect us.Okay Ana your up first!Bill wait your turn!
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Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Update from today


Hey, no double-advertising =P

Tropical Tidbit from today
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Tropical Update from today
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Hebert Boxes :)





Won't the storm be quite close to the Hebert Box?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Levi

You have to understand that we will be at the negative phase of the MJO throughout the rest of June.What is more, the GFS is expecting this to develop during the peak of the negative phase--that is very unlikely.

The GFS has been forecasting the scenario that we are seeing unraveling now since last week. I actually found this quite sensible, since it had forecast it to form during the peak MJO pulses.

Although tropical cyclogenesis over the next two weeks is almost preposterous, it is not impossible; there are other factors that kindle tropical cyclone development.

Keep in mind that the GFS has been doing this since the end of April.

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting Patrap:
Actually BRASS is a acronymn for Breathe, Relax,Aim ,Stop(Breathing).."Squeeze" the trigger.
Basic USMC rifleman Jargon.

Jargon,..Jarhead..?


Being a(n) US Army vet stationed with many marines a few times, I was wondering why "Breathing" was conviently left out of it's second position in the acronym "BRASS", it just don't sound right as BRASBS does it........LOL
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Nexrad Mixed Composite Radar Map
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Quoting MrstormX:
I wish I could travel into the future so I can see this storm


Quite possible...I've known persons that use the counterclockwise spin of hurricanes to open a portal to the past. But only works in the Bermuda Triangle so get on the nearest flight to Bermuda and half-way there, take a dive. Don't forget to take lots of pic. I would like to see how Ana looks.

:)
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Quoting CaneWarning:
I can't believe nobody has mentioned the Hebert Box yet.


Hebert Boxes :)



Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting beell:
Is this really a trough split, Levi?


Yes, just not as obvious because of how far north and east the GFS is taking it. I made this animation yesterday of the 06z GFS run. In this run it handled the trough split almost perfectly, but still left too much of a mess east of Florida. Expect a stronger ridge there.

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There's a Storm?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
I wish I could travel into the future so I can see this storm
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Actually BRASS is a acronymn for Breathe, Relax,Aim ,Stop(Breathing).."Squeeze" the trigger.
Basic USMC rifleman Jargon.

Jargon,..Jarhead..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
CMC indicates nothing soon.......

CMC Ha
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I knew there was a swirl somewhere based on how the white overcast lingered here on the coast. But I didn't know it was the rare and stealthy Land Swirl until I looked at the regional radar.
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Quoting Weather456:
If there's something strange
on the GFS
Who ya gonna call?
GHOSTBUSTERS

If there's something weird
and it don't look good
Who ya gonna call?
GHOSTBUSTERS

An invisible storm
moving over your house
Who ya gonna call?
GHOSTBUSTERS

If ya all alone
pick up the phone
and call
GHOSTBUSTERS

I ain't afraid of no ghosts
I ain't afraid of no ghosts

I ain't afraid of no ghosts
I ain't afraid of no ghosts

If there's something strange on the gfs. lol
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
677. beell
Is this really a trough split, Levi?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.