Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Quoting Levi32:


Sorry I am bad at remembering people's locations. I do live in Alaska after all....lol



Wow Alaska! That must be awesome out there!
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Quoting Levi32:
456 where exactly do you live? I figured you lived outside mainland US but I don't know exactly where you are.


No offense but I've asked that several times over the past day or two and I thought everyone knew since '06, lol

Saint Kitts

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
WTF? Link

Debris picked up near where officials think Air France Flight 447 crashed was not from the jet, Brazil’s air force says.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


We should add this question to the WU FAQ. No offense Levi...lol


Sorry I am bad at remembering people's locations. I do live in Alaska after all....lol
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Oh, before I go......wham Mobile

Link
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Quoting Levi32:
456 where exactly do you live? I figured you lived outside mainland US but I don't know exactly where you are.


We should add this question to the WU FAQ. No offense Levi...lol
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456 where exactly do you live? I figured you lived outside mainland US but I don't know exactly where you are.
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Gosh this blog just kind of blew up in a slew of random thoughts and quotes

Is anyone else watching the blob by the phillipines
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2372
Quoting Makoto1:


Don't worry, most models are shallow anyway. Just look at the BAM.


TMHP of 98.6 to one micron in depth? ª¿ª
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You know, when you talk about BOC, I think of Blue Oyster Cult. I'm going to listen to them now. Good Night all.
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Quoting Patrap:
I hear Neil Young is Coming to Fla..


July 19 - Bob Weir & RatDog w/moe. - St. Augustine Amphitheater - St. Augustine, FL

Bobbie is coming to Florida! Wooo hooooo!

I have been popping in and out all day - let's see - planes falling out of the sky, people arguing whether or not it was hit by lightning, actors hanging themselves naked in closets, the GFS is causing trouble...nothing but good news all the way around huh?

Hey - but, we got our house in San Diego...close on the 29th of this month. A little ray of sunshine...

Modified - not to be disrespectful of the families that have lost loved ones in the air tragedy - I can only say that I hope they they didn't suffer.
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Quoting Ossqss:


Careful, all models are different and should be understood before you analyze them. Some of you bloggers may have been one :(




Link


Don't worry, most models are shallow anyway. Just look at the BAM.
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763. beell
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Darkness? Florida? Hmmm, it has started!


Not to worry, naples. A short term forecast only. And as George "RIP" Carlin would say, "followed by a gradual trend toward daylight in the morning...".
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Quoting beell:


Sorry canesrule-j/k

A persistently modeled disturbance moving out of the S. Central Caribbean moving N towards Central Cuba-a week out. A model discussion, not a forecast by most here.
no need to say sorry no harm done
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On this day 43 years ago Hurricane Alma formed in the Western Caribbean. She tracked along the the coast of Florida before making Landfall on the panhandle and dumping heavy rains on GA.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Chill. Nothings coming to Florida.
i am chiled, thanks
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
I love you guys!

......more models and the that's it!!

Link


Careful, all models are different and should be understood before you analyze them. Some of us bloggers may have been one :(




Link
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Quoting DDR:
Hi 456,great update,i'm looking forward to the weekend,rain's coming,i've got 20 mm so far.


Yep, me too. Warm night here in the islands. Need some nice showers when our tropical comes.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
757. DDR
Hi 456,great update,i'm looking forward to the weekend,rain's coming,i've got 20 mm so far.
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756. beell
Quoting canesrule1:
:-)


Sorry canesrule-j/k

A persistently modeled disturbance moving out of the S. Central Caribbean moving N towards Central Cuba-a week out. A model discussion, not a forecast by most here.
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I hear Neil Young is Coming to Fla..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128256
Darkness? Florida? Hmmm, it has started!
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Quoting canesrule1:
then what is all this crap about?


Chill. Nothings coming to Florida.
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Quoting canesrule1:
i am very confused!!! can someone please explain what is coming to Florida??? thanks


Every storm in the alphabet.

But seriously, nothing is coming to Floirda, we may have a potential storm in the W CARIB next week but where will it go is uncertain at this point.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
rofl I show up, see post 736, and wonder if I should wait until later to hang around.

Then I realize this place is still more sane than me when I got that flat tire today on the highway so okay.

Any new developments? Haven't seen anything but I've been known to miss things.
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Quoting canesrule1:
i am very confused!!! can someone please explain what is coming to Florida??? thanks


A ghost!!
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
am very confused!!! can someone please explain what is coming to Florida??? thanks

Nothing right now.
then what is all this crap about?
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I love you guys!

......more models and the that's it!!

Link
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Quoting canesrule1:
wtf???
:-)
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Quoting beell:


Darkness
wtf???
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741. beell
Quoting canesrule1:
i am very confused!!! can someone please explain what is coming to Florida??? thanks


Darkness
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i am very confused!!! can someone please explain what is coming to Florida??? thanks
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Quoting futuremet:


A teasing voluptuous one.


Aren't they all :-)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting futuremet:


A teasing voluptuous one.


LOL.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
It's just a model...........



A teasing voluptuous one.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Like Wilma or Humberto with an extra 24 hours.

How you doin' Canewarning?


They mentioned Katrina on the show as the example.

I'm doing well. What about you?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaneWarning:


Plus the African waves that don't blow up until they are close to the U.S.
That is exactly right. I believe that is what we will truly have to be watchful for this season.
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732. beell
Thanks for your patience, Levi. I don't see a trough split-more of a plain ole ridge weakness. Weak mid level troughing is there-through out most of the timeframe we are looking at. And the "split energy"-maybe an attempt at a cut-off mid level low over N FL out of the de-amplyfying shortwave. And you may have mentioned earlier-not connected to any development in the Caribbean. We may have different vocabulary but I think we're talking about the same thing. You say potato...
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Quoting Weather456:
He made a very interesting point that I and many others pointed out:

This year poses a greater concern despite the numbers. Becuz the tropical Atlantic will not be as active this year the waves will take off closer to home. These storms pose the greatest concern. Someone also refered to TD 1 and 90L as examples and this potential upcoming system.

I think many remember the storms of 2005 and Humberto.


Plus the African waves that don't blow up until they are close to the U.S.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
He made a very interesting point that I and many others pointed out:

This year poses a greater concern despite the numbers. Becuz the tropical Atlantic will not be as active this year the waves will take off closer to home. These storms pose the greatest concern. Someone also refered to TD 1 and 90L as examples and this potential upcoming system.

I think many remember the storms of 2005 and Humberto.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting CaneWarning:
Interesting talk on Barometer Bob - not too late to join us all.


Yep. Pretty interesting talk indeed.
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I beleive we need to wait for the system to materialize to see what track it will take. I also beleive the gfs tracj is way too far to the east. I beleive this system will track in the middle of the two tracks moving generally north. Time Will tell.
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Interesting talk on Barometer Bob - not too late to join us all.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.