Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Shure nuff SJ...a Land Cane rolling thru Georgia..!

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
826. JRRP

still below normal near Afican coast
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
Quoting StormW:


Yes...been a while! Speaking of October...the event my be pushed back 'til next year.


Thanks for informing me about that. Just curious as to why that is the case.
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Land Swirl
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Quoting potteryX:
Here's an off topic question...
why are aircraft "black-boxes" installed on the aircraft, and therefore are so hard to find when you need to find them?
Can't the information be relayed to the ground, and stored there for the duration of the flight?? Surely, we have that ability?


Great question, the black boxes on this flight are submergdd at 10,000 feet. Can a submersible get there?
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting Patrap:
Here's an off topic question...
why are aircraft "black-boxes" installed on the aircraft, and therefore are so hard to find when you need to find them?
Can't the information be relayed to the ground, and stored there for the duration of the flight?? Surely, we have that ability?



First.the "FDR" Flight DATA Recorder and the "CVR",Cockpit Voice Recorder..are Bright International Rescue Orange...not Black, Thats a carry over term used for the avionics boxes that were rough coated in the analog days for Aircraft, Unrelated to the CVR and FDR.

The term is a bad misnomer,hated by Aviation and always used by the Media.



Aviation Topics.
Cockpit Voice Recorders (CVR) and Flight Data Recorders (FDR)


Large commercial aircraft and some smaller commercial, corporate, and private aircraft are required by the FAA to be equipped with two "black boxes" that record information about a flight. Both recorders are installed to help reconstruct the events leading to an aircraft accident. One of these, the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), records radio transmissions and sounds in the cockpit, such as the pilot's voices and engine noises. The other, the Flight Data Recorder (FDR), monitors parameters such as altitude, airspeed and heading. The older analog units use one-quarter inch magnetic tape as a storage medium and the newer ones use digital technology and memory chips. Both recorders are installed in the most crash survivable part of the aircraft, usually the tail section.

Each recorder is equipped with an Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB) to assist in locating in the event of an overwater accident. The device called a "pinger", is activated when the recorder is immersed in water. It transmits an acoustical signal on 37.5 KHz that can be detected with a special receiver. The beacon can transmit from depths down to 14,000 feet.

Following an accident, both recorders are immediately removed from the accident site and transported to NTSB headquarters in Washington D.C. for processing. Using sophisticated computer and audio equipment, the information stored on the recorders is extracted and translated into an understandable format. The Investigator-in-Charge uses this information as one of many tools to help the Safety Board determine the Probable Cause of the accident.




Cars have these too.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Seems like Lake Okeechobee was the main target for all the thunderstorms and heavy rains that were supposed to cover much of South Florida this afternoon. This should just add more water coming into the lake and am now expecting the lake to reach the 13 foot mark by early next week. It currently stands at 11.36 feet, but there still remains abundant water in the lakes and river system north of the lake that has yet to flow down into the lake.
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Quoting Patrap:
I hear Neil Young is Coming to Fla..


...Well, I hope Neil Young will remember, a southern man don't need him around anyhow. ...

Tomoka River near Holly Hill
When it gets to 15, Sell
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's an off topic question...
why are aircraft "black-boxes" installed on the aircraft, and therefore are so hard to find when you need to find them?
Can't the information be relayed to the ground, and stored there for the duration of the flight?? Surely, we have that ability?



First.the "FDR" Flight DATA Recorder and the "CVR",Cockpit Voice Recorder..are Bright International Rescue Orange...not Black, Thats a carry over term used for the avionics boxes that were rough coated in the analog days for Aircraft, Unrelated to the CVR and FDR.

The term is a bad misnomer,hated by Aviation and always used by the Media.



Aviation Topics.
Cockpit Voice Recorders (CVR) and Flight Data Recorders (FDR)


Large commercial aircraft and some smaller commercial, corporate, and private aircraft are required by the FAA to be equipped with two "black boxes" that record information about a flight. Both recorders are installed to help reconstruct the events leading to an aircraft accident. One of these, the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), records radio transmissions and sounds in the cockpit, such as the pilot's voices and engine noises. The other, the Flight Data Recorder (FDR), monitors parameters such as altitude, airspeed and heading. The older analog units use one-quarter inch magnetic tape as a storage medium and the newer ones use digital technology and memory chips. Both recorders are installed in the most crash survivable part of the aircraft, usually the tail section.

Each recorder is equipped with an Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB) to assist in locating in the event of an overwater accident. The device called a "pinger", is activated when the recorder is immersed in water. It transmits an acoustical signal on 37.5 KHz that can be detected with a special receiver. The beacon can transmit from depths down to 14,000 feet.

Following an accident, both recorders are immediately removed from the accident site and transported to NTSB headquarters in Washington D.C. for processing. Using sophisticated computer and audio equipment, the information stored on the recorders is extracted and translated into an understandable format. The Investigator-in-Charge uses this information as one of many tools to help the Safety Board determine the Probable Cause of the accident.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting CybrTeddy:
These are not the model runs your looking for..


whats this a remnent low???
obie looks like he has a splif in his hand!!!!,lol
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evening all
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.
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Sorry

Link
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
good question 809 - you would figure that it would all be stored somewhere off the aircraft.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's an off topic question...
why are aircraft "black-boxes" installed on the aircraft, and therefore are so hard to find when you need to find them?
Can't the information be relayed to the ground, and stored there for the duration of the flight?? Surely, we have that ability?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey! Whats up Storm? Been a long while since we last talked man. Hope all has been well and I can't wait for October to really work with you.
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Nothing, absolutely nothing..........

Link
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Hi Storm!
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Seems ya might be a Lil Busy if the Runs continue to show "stuff" Stormw.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
81*F here in SRQ tonight,finally some rain moving in off the GOM,it seems like its been raining everywhere but here the last few days,mother nature knows what she's doing and I bet we'll make up for it all at once....
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It's quiet in here. I guess we are all listening to Bob and StormJunkie talk.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
..attention on Deck.

Chief StormW now on board.

Semper Paratus is IN order.

Evening Chief..all Bloggers Present and Accounted for
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Good evening Storm.
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Ya'll better straighten up StormW is in da house
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Quoting Weather456:


But isn't the information placed in "My Local Weather" based on user input under "modify my profile?"


Yes,but all the inputs come from a Outside the CONUS IP..that may be the protocol error.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Patrap:
I hear Neil Young is Coming to Fla..


Keep on Rocking in the Free World!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
90L was extremely close to being Ana.
TD-1 almost became Ana (the T numbers had it at 2.5)
92L almost became subtropical Storm Ana.

Imagine if all 3 became named.
We'd be waiting for Danny on June 4th and we'd be all saying 'This is going to be more active than 2005'
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
These are not the model runs your looking for..
ROFL
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These are not the model runs your looking for..
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Quoting Weather456:


But isn't the information placed in "My Local Weather" based on user input under "modify my profile?"


Yes under modify profile in this section:

Blog Author Location:
To change your location please enter a Zip Code, Airport Code, City, State, or Country in the box below.
Hide My Location:
Current Location: Homer, Alaska, US
Location Search:
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Quoting Patrap:
WU has a server that sometimes wont show a International IP in the fields.

May be a protocol thing.


But isn't the information placed in "My Local Weather" based on user input under "modify my profile?"
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
784 & 785. I checked by the Jamaica Met office website but they didn't mention it. Checked a few newspapers around Jamaica so not well advertised. Obviously the sotrm doesn't exist yet so it is hard to say where it will go or if it will happen at all.

Link
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WU has a server that sometimes wont show a International IP in the fields.

May be a protocol thing.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
The local mets here haven't started to talk about this yet
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Quoting MrstormX:


Ya there was a scary model earlier showing it with an eye GFS 12z I believe. I just saw one pusing it of more towards Jamaica so who knows.

You think the gfs run is correct on the Jamaica situation
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For some reason WU only display locations on personal blogs if you live within the USA. No matter how hard I try to get my location up it does not show and I've seen that for other international blogs.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Patrap:
One can click on a Avatar here and usually find the Handles Location. A Heads up


Known that....456 does not have his location on his blog.

[edit] his weather station shows it but you have to scroll down a bit and for others you don't have to do that which is why it gets missed on his.
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One can click on a Avatar here and usually find the Handles Location. A Heads up
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Weather456:


No offense but I've asked that several times over the past day or two and I thought everyone knew since '06, lol

Saint Kitts



Thanks lol. I have never been on here when that question was asked. My apologies.
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Most people have their 10-20 posted when you click on their screen name.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Oops, let's try again............

Mobile Radar
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting Levi32:


Sorry I am bad at remembering people's locations. I do live in Alaska after all....lol



Wow Alaska! That must be awesome out there!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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