Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Had to share this. I took a walk on the beach (northeast Florida) after the rain this evening, and the most beautiful double rainbow was visible over the ocean. I have seen them before, but this one was different than what I have seen before. The lower rainbow was completely formed, and the clouds inside it were much lighter than the clouds outside of the arch. Then, on the outside, another rainbow was partially formed. It was something to see.
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LOL..nitey stillwaiting.
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aswell press
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This uns the Driver...LOL
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sweet dreams pat!!,lol
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Yeah,,I gotta crawl outta this Human Skin and get upstairs in my Octo-bed for the Daily Show.

Nighters all...too
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there about 300-400 miles apart,I thnk,lol
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off to get my beautyrest...God knows I need iy...night all...
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That ULL is gonna Kick the Surface Low in the rear overnight when she catches up..and itsa doing that real fast like
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Trouble? Nacho knows.........

Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
we'll know in the morning if the surface low keeps moving NE and not starting to retro-grade back north, then nnw,imo
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I used to be a M.I.B.,until that NOLA incident and those Terrarians got all drunk and ,well,its a Long story.

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SJ, good job on the show tonight.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Makoto1:


Also seems interesting to see that low looking that good over Georgia. Doubting it'll mount to anything but it's still fun to watch.


Closest thing to a cyclone we have right now
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Ahhh, I was hoping you were still up to see that Press.
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He's in big trouble...
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847. SJ
Who is They?
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looks like the ull has been moving NNE and the surface low has been moving NE,it could out pace the ULL and move offshore into the GS,shear would be low....
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I had no idea that FL was a major potato growing state!


Neither did I until that Lays commercial. No mention of Idaho but they had Texas, Michigan, and Florida? How odd...

Also seems interesting to see that low looking that good over Georgia. Doubting it'll mount to anything but it's still fun to watch.
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I was waiting for that re-tort..LOL
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Quoting StormJunkie:
It will never make the Atl with any structure if it goes over the Carolina foothills.


What kind of foothills?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
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Quoting StormJunkie:
It will never make the Atl with any structure if it goes over the Carolina foothills.


er..is that North Carolina,Middle Carolina or South Carolina SJ ?
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This Trailing line came thru while BB was on.

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Whatever. nice view of the W. Atlantic...Hoo Hoo
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Yeah, that's going to shivver yer timbers, Pat.
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It will never make the Atl with any structure if it goes over the Carolina foothills.
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We may set a New Morning Low here in the AM with this Dry Air Push SJ.



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and if it out paces the low???
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Interesting. I can't remember a FDR going missing ever before ?
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:
824. StormJunkie
Land Swirl

You get to name it.

They are calling 90L "the great potato storm"



Who is they? and why do I get to name it ¿~)
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Quoting stillwaiting:
looks warm core now though,imo


That's because it still is lol, at least at the low levels. The radar signature is similar to what 90L had after being inland for quite a while. Both very impressive little systems. It should go cold-core as it merges with the extratropical low though.
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Even the Orbiters,Shuttles have a FDR and CVR since we Lost Columbia in 03
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looks warm core now though,imo
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824. StormJunkie
Land Swirl

You get to name it.

They are calling 90L "the great potato storm"
That name is expected to be retired.

"Let's go Penguins" () () ()()()

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Well,those wireless Links dont always have a Line of Sight to a TDRS sat or Other receiving base/station.
So the Industry uses what they have and its been a good system for years,..except in these rare tragic events.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
next td as it move offshore????


It's supposed to phase with the other low just to its west and become cold core as it moves offshore.
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Quoting potteryX:
Thanks Pat. I understand that. But my point is..why not transmit the info to a memory bank on the ground. Erased when the aircraft shuts down and the crew disembarks.
Would make the analysis so much more accesible.


Noticed this point the other day Pottery, and excellent idea...It is one of those things that we have the capability of doing, but is likely not done for $$ or just lack of initiative...
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next td as it move offshore????
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Those high LST's usually go down at Night,but the Radiant flux may Help the feedback loop..
LOL
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Quoting StormW:


I think there have been some glitches in getting everything needed to get him underway.


Hi Storm, should have been here for the Ouiga board (sp).
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Trash Islands of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

From Amanda Briney, Contributing Writer, for About.com

Mar 24 2009
As our global population expands so too does the amount of trash we produce. A large portion of this trash then ends up in the world's oceans. Due to oceanic currents much of the trash in the sea is carried to a number of areas where the currents meet. The collections of trash in these locations have recently been referred to as marine trash islands.

Trash Vortes,currents

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Land Cane rolling thru Georgia..!

Wonder if the LST's are variant enough to support intensification ¿~)
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something seems strange about this air france situation,so now the area where the debris field was(and the associated convective area in the ICTZ)are not even the area where it crashed,if it did crash?????
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Thanks Pat. I understand that. But my point is..why not transmit the info to a memory bank on the ground. Erased when the aircraft shuts down and the crew disembarks.
Would make the analysis so much more accesible.
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Some ECHO tops to 44K there too SJ.


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Imagine all that trash out there in the ocean...and that oil slick...someone needs to find the culprit.
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Shure nuff SJ...a Land Cane rolling thru Georgia..!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.