Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Tampa, Isn't there pretty much always vorticity there with the stationary low? I'm still thinking the low will form from the tropical wave at 10N 47W. With the speed it is moving, the timing would be right.
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Drak:

You seem unusually optimistic about this...
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Wishcasting??? Who is wishcasting all I see on here is a few bloggers talking about model output and comparing their trends, isn't that why this blog is here?
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The 850mb Vorticity does show a nice return where the GFS wants to attempt to develop something.....

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
developing it immediately as the system comes of land.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29883
Quoting hurricane23:
Has the low at 108hrs


I think it was being forecasted on the GFS starting mid-week Tuesday-Thursday time frame on previous runs
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Quoting winter123:


well that much change between 18 and 00 models proves that you really cant take these models seriously. some people worship them like gods when in reality they should just be tools to guide you and you should analyze the patterns yourself based on your knowledge of meteorology.... etc. Real meteorologists that learn for years about it, not this tv meteorlogoy crap. Time for bed now, I'll see what this is tomorrow evening. have fun wishcasting.



lol he's about right..haha..!
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Quoting sky1989:
Where do you all think this system might go? Wouldn't it be most likely to take a track like Arlene(2005), Alberto (2006), or Barry( 2007)? I'm not very good at interpreting the models.


What system.....nothing there yet.......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Has the low at 108hrs
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Quoting beell:
Just asking a question, scott. Too late for me to be serious or sarcastic.


NAM is a Decent American Model...but its zone is mostly in and around North America and up to 48hrs out...but it goes 84hrs and also does the carribean and western atlantic.. for the continental U.S. we use mostly the GFS with a blend of the NAM...but also the Euro..just matters on which has the best handle on the data its recieved!
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Quoting sky1989:


That reminds me of the setup with what the models were doing with what became Alma, and eventually Arthur, last year.


well that much change between 18 and 00 models proves that you really cant take these models seriously. some people worship them like gods when in reality they should just be tools to guide you and you should analyze the patterns yourself based on your knowledge of meteorology.... etc. Real meteorologists that learn for years about it, not this tv meteorlogoy crap. Time for bed now, I'll see what this is tomorrow evening. have fun wishcasting.
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916. beell
Just asking a question, scott. Too late for me to be serious or sarcastic.
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Fi fi fo fum... I smell a hurricane....here it comes...Missed everyone... good to be back with the stormwatch...watchtower...
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Quoting hurricane23:
Nothing out to 84hrs on the GFS


I would prefer a slower solution of the Systems development. I think the NAM&NOGAPS are too quick.
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Quoting beell:


How would you rate the NAM for modeling steering components in and around North America?
No value?


Are you being sarcastic? or serious here.
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Seems like the gfs wants to keep it over central america for a while. Interesting
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Nothing out to 84hrs on the GFS
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night all lets see what the runs say tomorrow
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Quoting hurricane23:
Hmm seems like it might develope it in the epac on the 00z


That reminds me of the setup with what the models were doing with what became Alma, and eventually Arthur, last year.
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so whats out?
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907. beell
Quoting scottsvb:
Dont even follow the NAM peeps...it doesnt do well with tropical systems!


How would you rate the NAM for modeling steering components in and around North America?
No value?
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Hmm seems like it might develope it in the epac on the 00z
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Where do you all think this system might go? Wouldn't it be most likely to take a track like Arlene(2005), Alberto (2006), or Barry( 2007)? I'm not very good at interpreting the models.
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AOI #1

AOI #2
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Quoting scottsvb:
Dont even follow the NAM peeps...it doesnt do well with tropical systems!


Really???

Thanks for the heads up lol
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Quoting Drakoen:
The NAM 00z is closely in line with the NOGAPS.


Hey Drak,

Yea saw that waiting for the 00z to finish
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Dont even follow the NAM peeps...it doesnt do well with tropical systems!
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Thanks!
It will be interesting to see how this will all pan out. We may see Ana out of this. If we do that would be 5 years in a row (2005-2009)to have a May or June named storm.
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Quoting Levi32:


Yes this system will probably have the most favorable environment to work with out of all the disturbances we've seen so far.


Yes and steering currents appear to be somewhat weak for a good period over high TCHP and low vertical wind shear.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29883
The NAM 00z is closely in line with the NOGAPS.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29883
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Go0d question. Here's another idea. Why can't they make 'em float with an EPIRB beeping?

Just guessing on this, but part of it is that they need to keep them compact. They aren't exactly light, so making them float would require a pretty sizable floation unit... that can be damaged in a crash. (keep in mind... it will be on an aircraft, and must survive the crash). Also, these do have a beacon that is similar to an EPIRB, and transmits for up to a mile. Of course, the waters where the plane crashed exceed 15,000 feet.

As for storing the data on the ground, couple things: 1. as others mentioned, bandwidth quickly becomes an issue. 2. Who stores it? how long does it get stored? what happens when you cross borders? 3. What if an electrical failure causes the crash? Lose electricity, lose transmission. 4. How do you transmit that info from *anywhere* to potentially anywhere without -any- potential for loss of data?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting sky1989:
Does anyone know if the environment will be more favorable for this next feature than it was for the last few? We've had several ALMOST develop into a named system.


Yes this system will probably have the most favorable environment to work with out of all the disturbances we've seen so far.
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895. Skyepony (Mod)
May ice numbers are out.
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Does anyone know if the environment will be more favorable for this next feature than it was for the last few? We've had several ALMOST develop into a named system.
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Quoting potteryX:
Here's an off topic question...
why are aircraft "black-boxes" installed on the aircraft, and therefore are so hard to find when you need to find them?
Can't the information be relayed to the ground, and stored there for the duration of the flight?? Surely, we have that ability?




Go0d question. Here's another idea. Why can't they make 'em float with an EPIRB beeping?
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Quoting futuremet:
NAM 00Z



Hmmm,
The NAM is developing it quite quickly.
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891. V26R
Testing
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Quoting MrstormX:
I'd like to see if the GFS 12z changes a lot on the next update. This model fasinates me the most, due to the obvious cyclone it shows.


You know thats bull.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
What does your Sis look like?
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888. beell
From Wiki:
There are 88 parameters required as a minimum under current U.S. federal regulations (only 29 were required until 2002), but some systems monitor many more variables. Generally each parameter is recorded a few times per second, though some units store "bursts" of data at a much higher frequency if the data begins to change quickly...

Pretty healthy bandwidth requirements. And quite the chore staying connected-as Pat mentioned. We could probably do it for ONE plane easy. Add more planes and at some point you would have to start chopping away at those 88 separate data channels. Quite a few planes in the global sky at any given time. A great idea that is certainly possible at some point. Who's gonna pay for it?
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Quoting TX2FL:


I've been there to help rebuild, It's their home..the place they love...and they want to see it thrive.
I understand that but the sea level does not.That is putting alot of faith in the new levees
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Did you see them sharks......
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
NAM 00Z

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I'd like to see if the GFS 12z changes a lot on the next update. This model fasinates me the most, due to the obvious cyclone it shows.
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883. TX2FL
Quoting adjusterx:
Pat,I have been down in the depths and seen the destruction from Katrina and at the same time people are trying to re build there.Why?


I've been there to help rebuild, It's their home..the place they love...and they want to see it thrive.
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Quoting katlbeach:
Had to share this. I took a walk on the beach (northeast Florida) after the rain this evening, and the most beautiful double rainbow was visible over the ocean. I have seen them before, but this one was different than what I have seen before. The lower rainbow was completely formed, and the clouds inside it were much lighter than the clouds outside of the arch. Then, on the outside, another rainbow was partially formed. It was something to see.


picture??????????
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Quoting Patrap:
LOL..nitey stillwaiting.
Pat,I have been down in the depths and seen the destruction from Katrina and at the same time people are trying to re build there.Why?
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WU,WU,daily show,colbert,Ice cream,conan obrien,falon,zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz,morning,breakfest,WU,WU,WU,WU...ect.ect,ect,lol
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I see the 00z Nam still has a Carib system at 84hrs...
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wow.. looks like the ITCZ is exploding and its about to eat panama alive. ugh ill be back tomorrow at 5pm

Link
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Had to share this. I took a walk on the beach (northeast Florida) after the rain this evening, and the most beautiful double rainbow was visible over the ocean. I have seen them before, but this one was different than what I have seen before. The lower rainbow was completely formed, and the clouds inside it were much lighter than the clouds outside of the arch. Then, on the outside, another rainbow was partially formed. It was something to see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.