Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR
The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.
TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.
TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.
Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..
Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 — Blog Index
Thanks...I corrected it.
????
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates
AOI #1
AOI #2
nope!!!,stillwaitings stillwaiting for that TC landfall in my area(we get 2 or 3 scares a season),lol....it's gonna hit tampa!!!,NOT
Don't even say that... people on here would freak.
ECMWF 24 HOURS OUT
NOGAPS under Cyclone Phase
00z UKMET says west to the EPAC
I hope this link works
latest surface
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
RELIED HEAVILY ON THE MOST RECENT EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM 12Z/04 FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. CONSIDERING THE LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE DAYS 2 AND 3...IT IS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE A MESS AS WELL. PERHAPS THE SAFEST THING TO SAY IS THAT RELYING ON ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC MODEL WOULD NOT BE ADVISABLE THIS FORECAST.
More weather info from incident:
Meteorologists said the Air France jet entered an unusual storm with 100 mph (160 kph) updrafts that acted as a vacuum, sucking water up from the ocean. The moist air rushed up to the plane's high altitude, where it quickly froze in minus-40 degree temperatures. The updrafts also would have created dangerous turbulence.
The jetliner's computer systems ultimately failed, and the plane broke apart likely in midair as it crashed into the Atlantic on a flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris Sunday night.
But investigators will have little to go on until they recover the plane's "black box" flight data and voice recorders, now likely on the ocean floor miles beneath the surface.
yea I know orca,some people on here might get upset,but "I'm just being honest"
as benjamin from the outcasts would say,lol
TWC has debunked the 100mph updraft theory,said there's no was no accurate way to measure any updrafts in the area,now with no wreckage,they still don't even know if it went down in a storm,for all we know the plane crashed before encountering any storms,imo
GFS still holding on to ghost development I see.
GFS
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MOVES VERY SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS FLORIDA...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS FLORIDA. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...HAIL TO COIN SIZE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES IN A 60 TO 90 MINUTE PERIOD...WHICH WOULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW AREAS...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
STORMS TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR DEVELOPING HAZARDOUS WEATHER...AND HEAD INDOORS IF SKIES LOOK THREATENING.
...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ANY LIGHTNING STORMS WHICH FORM OVER LAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BOATERS WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LIGHTNING STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND HEAD TO SAFE HARBOR IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING STORMS.
INLAND LAKES ARE NOT IMMUNE FROM THE EFFECTS OF STRONG STORMS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CAN QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER LAKES WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR WELL BEFORE A STORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGH COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. IN ADDITION...PLEASE REPORT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Could you go ahead and fix the rest of them? I think they're a little goofy.........like me....LOL
The Weather Channel downcasts everything, including plane crashes!
Standing in annoying puddles of water pointing at palm fronds floating by doesn't interest me.
I quit watching them years ago...
Maybe it was Bettis that annoyed me the most.
Cannot stand her screeching and poor diction.
30% chance of a T-Storm but otherwise sunny in Mobile. Luvin it! Sometimes it's great not having a storm to talk about, especially if it's heading our way.
Yep, but you still get to be on a sailboat........envy, envy, envy!
758 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009
.NOW...
AT 755 AM...THE STATEWIDE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG AND EAST OF THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...COMING ASHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN SARASOTA AND FORT MYERS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM AROUND NAPLES TO PORT SAINT LUCIE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THROUGH 10 AM...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WILL SPREAD OVER LAKE...ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES IMPACTING LEESBURG...THE THEME PARKS...METRO ORLANDO AND ITS SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES...KISSIMMEE AND SANFORD.
Stay off the roads, especially I-4, if you're in the Metro Orlando area today.
LOL.
TGIF:)
Had a bad thunderstorm this morning around 3 that woke me up.
Now mostly cloudy and 70.0 outside my window.
How are tropical disturbances named (e.g. 90L)?
The names don't seem to be unique, or in sequence.
Thanks for the help.
Ray
Melbourne Beach, Florida
That's it for me for a while. Over and out!
Link
I'll send a litle sun your way. It's great to be off today, I'll hang around the blog until the bar opens....heh heh.
It will come. IKE, looks like you'll have a little weather before Mr. Sunshine arrives.
Mobile Radar
STORM NAME = Literal storm name or TCcyx where
cy = Annual cyclone number: 00 through 99
x = Subregion code: W, A, B, S, P, C, E.
A - Arabian Sea
B - Bay of Bengal
C - Central Pacific
E - Eastern Pacific
L - Atlantic
P - South Pacific (135oE - 120oW)
S - South IO (20oE - 135oE)
W - Western Pacific
storm-number =
01 - 30 "numbered storms with forecasts issued and numbers are *not* recycled until the next season."
90 - 99 "Invest, areas of interest watched by forecasters for possible development and these numbers are re-used periodically throughout the season"
80 - 89 "Internal training storm numbers which are to always be ignored"
Airbus
They are in sequence from 90 to 99 and the recycled. They use the 90s for invests
Yes, the mast makes a great lightning rod! I have seen a few boats that have had every electrical device on the boat fried. As a former live-aboard sailor, we avoided as many thunderstorms as possible--but when we got caught, all electronics were disconnected from power and any antennas. We also would attach battery jumper cables to the shrouds(metal cable that support the mast on the sides) and throw the other end in the water.
The mast went through the forward cabin to the keel--when ever there was a storm, we retreated to the aft cabin--as far away from the "lightning rod" as possible.
.....but why 90's? There must be a reason for it. Dang, more research...
Thanks for the words of encouragement,the sooner it comes,the better,our summers are too short up here.
There has been much in the way of controversy on just the facts on this item. That in itself is not good. They reported there was much lightning and TWC the other night said it was not within 150 nm of lightning from the 2 services that monitor it world wide. They have released more detailed info on the transmissions from the plane, but can we believe that ?
Link
Orca I think you may need a bigger pond... wow 200,000 eggs?!?
Also, no offense, but who wants to watch 8th month pregnant women do weather forcasts?
I am hoping that nature takes its course..and they all get eaten.... with my luck... they will all survive..every last one of them.
I'm not one to believe in conspiracy theories, but this whole situation is certainly ripe for some strange theories to come out. I have never seen a story be so misreported in my life. They tell you one thing and come back and say the opposite the next day. I am starting to think there is more to all of this than we are being told.
Viewing: 1001 - 1051
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 — Blog Index