Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Lets see the wunderground Folks near here step up and help out a Neighbor,..thats a gift of Love that will always be with these 2 Families.
Im not able to make it there next weekend so Im inclined to recruit some here who can.


from the above entry....

Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022.


Im looking for a couple of Young Hard charging motivated individuals to Help with the effort in Voluisa County next Friday.The flooding from 90L did the nasty on 1500 Homes there.


One can make a difference in 2 FLa. Families Lives by helping out.

Thats always a good thing,as school is ending .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEwxguy:
how many people here remember Kung fu?


Ah yes, Grasshopper ! You will be missed, rest in peace.

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
Quoting sullivanweather:
I've been going with 11/5/3 Atlantic, 19/11/5 E.Pac.

Contrary to some of the expert progs, I'm bucking the trend by going with an above average ACE, by about 110-120%.

I think we get two or three good long-tracking Cape Verde storms helping to inflate that ACE.


That many for the EPAC? They haven't even had their first storm yet.
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74. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
how many people here remember Kung fu?


Me.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Patrap:
Any one here near Volusia County Fla?


We are about an hour south
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how many people here remember Kung fu?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
Quoting sullivanweather:
I've been going with 11/5/3 Atlantic, 19/11/5 E.Pac.

Contrary to some of the expert progs, I'm bucking the trend by going with an above average ACE, by about 110-120%.

I think we get two or three good long-tracking Cape Verde storms helping to inflate that ACE.


The lack of development of Cape Verde storms until they got much closer to the US is what killed my ACE prediction last year. Let's hope that anything that does get going out there gets sucked north by a passing trough...
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70. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:


And here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/8083479.stm

I think I'd rather not speculate how he died considering that report...


Ugh.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022.


Im looking for a couple of Young Hard charging motivated individuals to Help with the effort in Voluisa County next Friday.The flooding from 90L did the nasty on 1500 Homes there.


One can make a difference in 2 FLa. Families Lives by helping out.

Thats always a good thing,as school is ending .
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May David Carradine rest in peace, I liked him.
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Quoting IKE:
'Kung Fu' star David Carradine has been found dead in a hotel in Bangkok, Thailand, according to his manager.

.....per CNN.


And here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/8083479.stm

I think I'd rather not speculate how he died considering that report...
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I had a blast reading these NHC discussions on Andrew...amazing how close the storm was to dissipating several times due to shear!

NHC Hurricane Andrew Archive
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Quoting Ossqss:
Weggie boarding is not legal in this country :)


Sounds Painfull <:-O
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I've been going with 11/5/3 Atlantic, 19/11/5 E.Pac.

Contrary to some of the expert progs, I'm bucking the trend by going with an above average ACE, by about 110-120%.

I think we get two or three good long-tracking Cape Verde storms helping to inflate that ACE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Any one here near Volusia County Fla?


I live in Flagler County, FL which is the next county up.
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Quoting Ossqss:
Weggie boarding is not legal in this country :)


It is considered a form of torture. ;)
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61. IKE
'Kung Fu' star David Carradine has been found dead in a hotel in Bangkok, Thailand, according to his manager.

.....per CNN.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity


The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

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Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like the Weggie Boards are coming out.......LOL.....hope i spelled that correct..LOL


Ouija board.
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Weggie boarding is not legal in this country :)

Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
Any one here near Volusia County Fla?
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
I'm surprised that Dr. Masters did not discuss at all that some of the model guidance suggests of a system in the Caribbean in 4-5 days.

IMO, its prudent not to mention them, especially since, as Patrap said, they are just an indication of what *might* happen. Also, consider the GFS's (horrible) track record, especially more than 3 days out. The GFS is horrid at cyclogenesis, but good once a system is initialized.
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.
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We could see storm numbers close to the 2002 season, which was also an El Nino year.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like the Weggie Boards are coming out.......LOL.....hope i spelled that correct..LOL


Try Ouija
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
Like you said though Baha...the real news is their decrease from their April forecast...

35% above normal -> 30% below normal
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Florida Drought Update
According to the latest analysis and data from the United States Drought Monitor Service, the drought throughout nearly all Florida has been eased and only a small portion remains in drought conditions. Now I do realize that this drought situation extends back over three years across Florida so this may not be totally accurate in the long-term.



It may be a bit wetter on top and less fire prone, but the lakes in my neck of the woods are still way down. The aquifer is finally starting to fill.

Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
UNYSIS 10-Day GFSx
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Looks like the Weggie Boards are coming out.......LOL.....hope i spelled that correct..LOL
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Actually TSR is predicting an average season. But I get the drift: that prediction is way down from their earlier prognosis.


Average from a Named Storm, Hurricane perspective...

But their ACE Index forecast is 69 - about 30% below average
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From the link in #36 above:

There continues to be considerable spread in the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5). All statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of 2009. However, most dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System, predict the onset of El Niño during June - August 2009.

Sounds like the battle of the models. If the dynamic models prove right, it means we can be more confident with the direction we are taking with them. If the stats are correct, it means more tweaking of the dynamic models.
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Have a question for the experts,does the El Nino/La Nina effect where the A/B High sets up,or is the high effected by other factors
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
Nothing there to report. Models are insight to what MAY occur.



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One thing about El Nino and its impact on SSTs: Not only is shear higher, the trade winds are higher. The higher trades cause SSTs to cool via increased evaporation, and more mixing of water via waves. The 26c thermocline will likely be deeper than usual, but the heat content overall will be lower.
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SSTs are warming up nicely especially around Africa where they were 3C below average.
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Quoting OSUWXGUY:
NCEP El Nino Update - June 4


El Nino watch in effect.
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At this point, with nothing to track. Climatology rules where it may go if it forms.

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Quoting IKE:


Nice pics.
Thanks.
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These trending down predictions for the season, points out how useless the December forecasts are
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
NCEP El Nino Update - June 4
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School is already out here in Collier County, FL. No luck there kids!
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Actually TSR is predicting an average season. But I get the drift: that prediction is way down from their earlier prognosis.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Oh dear, schools out for Florida kids.
Prepare for the trolls!


Thanks for the heads up,I forgot your kids get out a lot earlier than up here in the north
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
Florida Drought Update
According to the latest analysis and data from the United States Drought Monitor Service, the drought throughout nearly all Florida has been eased and only a small portion remains in drought conditions. Now I do realize that this drought situation extends back over three years across Florida so this may not be totally accurate in the long-term.

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A short season would be terrific. Early start, early finish?

From prior blog, RE: Tampa
Quoting CaneWarning:
Yes, millions of people in the Tampa Bay region live in flood zones. The only good thing about Tampa is the storm surge would be able to go back out when the storm passes. We wouldn't have to pump out water like they did in N.O.
Florida Emergency Management may have it a little more together than NOLA did at the time (though I am sure that has changed). Evacuation is the key when it comes to storm surge - hopefully evacuation of Tampa would begin early on a volunteer basis.
Seriously, would any of you in Tampa wait to be told to leave, if a hurricane was heading in your direction? I know that I have always left about 30 minutes before they anticipated calling an evacuation (Charleston, SC). If I lived in Tampa or NOLA, I would move that time line up a quite a bit. Run from the water! Sometimes removing oneself from the battlefield is the better side of valor.
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30. IKE
26 and 27....thanks....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
29. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.

Looks like forecasters learned their lesson from 2006. After last year, I wouldn't mind another year like 06, when the big storms stayed out to sea, no matter how great they looked on the satpics.

BTW, I did upload a handful of the pics I took yesterday. Here are a couple of them:


Nassau around 10 a.m.


Crossing the US coast (looks like NC/VA area, though I have to verify that) around 1 p.m.


Overcast skies and rain on approach to Philadelphia about 2 p.m.


Finally a little sun on approach to Boston around 7 p.m.

U can look at the others by clicking on my name and selecting my photos.





Nice pics.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Oh dear, schools out for Florida kids.
Prepare for the trolls!
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Yes...but matters on the strength of the trough and how fast it moves out and ...there are a view things @ play.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.