Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Because the invest is no more. It has ceased to be. It has expired, and has gone to meet its maker. It is an ex-invest!

No - it's pining for the Fjords!
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otherwise known as getting the cart before the horse
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WeatherStudent,

Where it will go comes after it's formed.

Right now, the certainty lies within the Western Caribbean and even that is not a 100%
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Please answer my question, Drak?


There's nothing there yet chill out.
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Quoting NEwxguy:
how many people here remember Kung fu?

Me! I loved it!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Good afternoon... interesting new blog... so all professionals are forecasting an average year. If stronger than ususal trades winds are to develop then this would mean the W Carib and GOM should be warmer than usual due to downwelling. To say the least it will be a quit humid summer for the GOM states.
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Quoting Patrap:
Lets see the wunderground Folks near here step up and help out a Neighbor,..thats a gift of Love that will always be with these 2 Families.
Im not able to make it there next weekend so Im inclined to recruit some here who can.


from the above entry....

Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022.


Im looking for a couple of Young Hard charging motivated individuals to Help with the effort in Voluisa County next Friday.The flooding from 90L did the nasty on 1500 Homes there.


One can make a difference in 2 FLa. Families Lives by helping out.

Thats always a good thing,as school is ending .


Just an idea.....try contacting the First United Methodist Church in the community. I know that our church ALWAYS helps out with things like this. They will ask the older kids in the youth program to come out and help.
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Where's the shear?
Link
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Quoting Patrap:
Kung-Fu,Quija Boards,..and Cheerleaders..


Lols at Pat!!!
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Thanks to Portlight for coming into my community to help. My time is limited due to working full-time and graduate school part-time, but I will do my best to see where I can pitch in.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


So does that mean that it might no longer have the opportunity to swing off to the northeast like the earlier runs of these models were potentially depicting it might do since the axis of the approaching ridge might be building in a little bit sooner then predicted, Drakster? By the way, good Thursday morning all!!!


Admit you're JFV and your question will be answered.
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Kung-Fu,Quija Boards,..and Cheerleaders..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Good Morning all. What are we talking/hyping up today.LOL
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111. IKE
12Z GFS is starting now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
NAM is a further west than the GFS due to the low level ridge axis.
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90B
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Outside my place right now

Homebush at 01:10 EST
Temperature: 13.4%uFFFDC
Dew point: 13.6%uFFFDC
Feels like: 13.4%uFFFDC
Wind:N 3km/h
Wind gusts: 7km/h
Rainfall: since 9am/last hr
0.2mm / 0.0
Current conditions: Foggy
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eye2theskies 2:41 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Sounds Painfull <:-O
Quoting Ossqss:
Weggie boarding is not legal in this country :)


Tell Cheney that... :)


GREAT ONE!
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Tropical Update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting sullivanweather:
For the Atlantic mainly. I haven't put too much time into the Pacific other than finding a few things that lead me to believe it will be an active season there.

I think we should achieve moderate El Nino by August. The sub-surface anomalies are running well above normal as the West Pacific warm pool has really spread east at thermocline depth. The SOI has been running negative since late April so it's only a matter of time before we're solidly into an El Nino.

Expect much different weather patterns than those of the last 2+ years. Things are a changing...


Interesting, we'll see if it holds up. Been a little while since we've had a solid El Nino. Feels about time for one that spans more than just a year.

Another thing I -think- is the AMO levels going down. Last time, after the big shabang of the 05 type season, it quietened a bit before the 1950 season came in which coincided with the peak of the AMO+ era. That peak's supposedly in 2020...

Cat 5s seem to go in an odd cycle.. don't think we'll get any of those till 2012/13.

Uninformed observations.
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Never any fun Betting on Calamity.. I'll pass tyvm.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Hey everyone..I have a hurricane season prediction contest in my blog. You can guess number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes....along with landfall locations.

Check it out..The more that participate, the more fun it will be!!
Link
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102. IKE
12Z NAM @ 84 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
You should see my Pom-Poms..LOL



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Pat...you are a very effective, if not particularly attractive, cheerleader!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Millions of thanks to all...
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Quoting bdkennedy1:
Why is everyone ignoring Invest 92L?


Because the invest is no more. It has ceased to be. It has expired, and has gone to meet its maker. It is an ex-invest!

Quoting GustyinPR:
OKKKK!!!!! What in the world am I supossed to make out of this??? "In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes." Do I have to take out .4 of my shutters??


One assumes you're kidding but if not, then no; 'only takes one' is a very truthful mantra.

If 0.4 means a pint sized hurricane, well they can still pack a terrible punch á la Charley of '04.
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For the Atlantic mainly. I haven't put too much time into the Pacific other than finding a few things that lead me to believe it will be an active season there.

I think we should achieve moderate El Nino by August. The sub-surface anomalies are running well above normal as the West Pacific warm pool has really spread east at thermocline depth. The SOI has been running negative since late April so it's only a matter of time before we're solidly into an El Nino.

Expect much different weather patterns than those of the last 2+ years. Things are a changing...
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


For the Shaolin Priest, "fighting" is the last resort; and if you must, remember the Dragon/Monkey style and kick some butt...


Wise words. I was a student of JKD for many years. Back to the salt mines - L8R

Jeet_Kune_Do
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Western Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic shear remains above normal...though has come down a bit.





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From NBC-2.com:

GALVESTON, Texas (AP) - A fire has destroyed at least 60 condos in a Galveston, Texas, beachfront development that was being rebuilt after being damaged by Hurricane Ike.

Fire Chief Mike Vaerla Sr. says welding contractors working on the renovations accidentally started the fire at the Maravilla Condos on Wednesday afternoon.

Smoke was seen for miles as firefighters from Galveston and neighboring cities worked about three hours to contain the blaze.

A firefighter suffered heat exhaustion, but no one else was hurt.

The development along the Gulf of Mexico was damaged during Hurricane Ike last summer and many of its 164 units still were being rebuilt.

Talk about adding insult to injury. Had similar situations after Charley. A few homes survived the hurricane only to burn down after the power was switched back on.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
Quoting sullivanweather:


Hiya Cotillion! How's it been with ya?

Funny you should mention that cause 2006 is one of my analogue years, along with 1963 and 1951.


Hey Sully :)

All thing's are good here. Should be our warmest summer for a little while, the last two have been nothing less than dreadful. And yourself?

Analogue years for the EPac, or both basins?
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Why is everyone ignoring Invest 92L?
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OKKKK!!!!! What in the world am I supossed to make out of this??? "In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes." Do I have to take out .4 of my shutters??
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Quoting NEwxguy:
how many people here remember Kung fu?


For the Shaolin Priest, "fighting" is the last resort; and if you must, remember the Dragon/Monkey style and kick some butt...
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Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity


The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (�C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting Cotillion:
Last time East Pac had 19+ storms was 2006. Before that, 2000.




Hiya Cotillion! How's it been with ya?

Funny you should mention that cause 2006 is one of my analogue years, along with 1963 and 1951.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
I honestly don't believe we will have a (2006) season. We had a very quiet year in 1997 with 8 named storms, then 10 named storm in 2006, so do the math and what do you get?
Every 8 years.. Of course nature will prove us all wrong, so we'll see, for right now.. I'm going with 14/7/5

I think if it were to be a slow season, 2002 would best fit this year, not 2006 or 1997. I just don't see that less of storms developing this year.
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I'd go Pat if I was not already committed to my full-time job :(


Its not a One Day affair,..its a committment to rebuild these 2 Homes over a period of time.

Feel free to contact John at the number provided,or wu-mail Portlight directly.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting Drakoen:


That many for the EPAC? They haven't even had their first storm yet.


Those waters in the ENSO regions are beginning to warm above climo. I think that will sustain MJO activity in that basin more frequent than not. I also have the E.Pac numbers high due to all the 'missed opportunities' in the Atlantic; waves not developing until crossing central America.

It's my belief the E.Pac #'s have been down lately due to waves simply developing into storms across the Atlantic basin before reaching the Pacific. That and the abnormally low TCHP due to La Nina, -PDO, Tehuano wind events, etc. have all lead to this.

But things are switching around globally now, AAM has been rising, El Nino is developing, the Atlantic has markedly cooled.

I think this year will be Pacifocentric. New word. Coined here first...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
Quoting Patrap:
Lets see the wunderground Folks near here step up and help out a Neighbor,..thats a gift of Love that will always be with these 2 Families.
Im not able to make it there next weekend so Im inclined to recruit some here who can.


from the above entry....

Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022.


Im looking for a couple of Young Hard charging motivated individuals to Help with the effort in Voluisa County next Friday.The flooding from 90L did the nasty on 1500 Homes there.


One can make a difference in 2 FLa. Families Lives by helping out.

Thats always a good thing,as school is ending .



I'd go Pat if I was not already committed to my full-time job :(
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If a man dwells on the past, then he robs the present. But if a man ignores the past, he may rob the future. The seeds of our destiny are nurtured by the roots of our past.
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thanks for the update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
NexSat Visible Image Loop,GOM sector
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting StormSurgeon:


"When you snatch the pebble from my hand, it is time for you to leave."


LOL,some memorable lines came out of that show.
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Last time East Pac had 19+ storms was 2006. Before that, 2000.


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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Sounds Painfull <:-O
Quoting Ossqss:
Weggie boarding is not legal in this country :)


Tell Cheney that... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEwxguy:
how many people here remember Kung fu?


"When you snatch the pebble from my hand, it is time for you to leave."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lets see the wunderground Folks near here step up and help out a Neighbor,..thats a gift of Love that will always be with these 2 Families.
Im not able to make it there next weekend so Im inclined to recruit some here who can.


from the above entry....

Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022.


Im looking for a couple of Young Hard charging motivated individuals to Help with the effort in Voluisa County next Friday.The flooding from 90L did the nasty on 1500 Homes there.


One can make a difference in 2 FLa. Families Lives by helping out.

Thats always a good thing,as school is ending .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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