Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1027 - 977

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Not a good day for the Theme Parks:
758 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

.NOW...

AT 755 AM...THE STATEWIDE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG AND EAST OF THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...COMING ASHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN SARASOTA AND FORT MYERS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM AROUND NAPLES TO PORT SAINT LUCIE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THROUGH 10 AM...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WILL SPREAD OVER LAKE...ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES IMPACTING LEESBURG...THE THEME PARKS...METRO ORLANDO AND ITS SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES...KISSIMMEE AND SANFORD.

Stay off the roads, especially I-4, if you're in the Metro Orlando area today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
HIE...if on a sailboat in lightening...I've found it helpful to engage in a combination of profanity and prayer...


Yep, but you still get to be on a sailboat........envy, envy, envy!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting stillwaiting:
after our rain this morning,its nice and breezy w/15mph winds,looks like it'll be sunny within the next hr,gotta love FL weather!!


30% chance of a T-Storm but otherwise sunny in Mobile. Luvin it! Sometimes it's great not having a storm to talk about, especially if it's heading our way.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1024. Buhdog
Here come my storms in Ft Myers...er at least rain. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HIE...if on a sailboat in lightening...I've found it helpful to engage in a combination of profanity and prayer...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10485
Hi Stillwaiting.
The Weather Channel downcasts everything, including plane crashes!
Standing in annoying puddles of water pointing at palm fronds floating by doesn't interest me.
I quit watching them years ago...
Maybe it was Bettis that annoyed me the most.
Cannot stand her screeching and poor diction.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Thanks...I corrected it.


Could you go ahead and fix the rest of them? I think they're a little goofy.........like me....LOL
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
after our rain this morning,its nice and breezy w/15mph winds,looks like it'll be sunny within the next hr,gotta love FL weather!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
550 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MOVES VERY SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS FLORIDA...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS FLORIDA. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.

STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...HAIL TO COIN SIZE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES IN A 60 TO 90 MINUTE PERIOD...WHICH WOULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW AREAS...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

STORMS TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR DEVELOPING HAZARDOUS WEATHER...AND HEAD INDOORS IF SKIES LOOK THREATENING.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ANY LIGHTNING STORMS WHICH FORM OVER LAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BOATERS WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LIGHTNING STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND HEAD TO SAFE HARBOR IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING STORMS.
INLAND LAKES ARE NOT IMMUNE FROM THE EFFECTS OF STRONG STORMS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CAN QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER LAKES WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR WELL BEFORE A STORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGH COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. IN ADDITION...PLEASE REPORT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, I must have passed out. JB was tlaking to me last night. I'm off today, 3 day weekend......Hoo Hoo!

GFS still holding on to ghost development I see.

GFS
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting Chicklit:
No debris from Air Bus found, according to this morning's reports. Ugh!
More weather info from incident:

Meteorologists said the Air France jet entered an unusual storm with 100 mph (160 kph) updrafts that acted as a vacuum, sucking water up from the ocean. The moist air rushed up to the plane's high altitude, where it quickly froze in minus-40 degree temperatures. The updrafts also would have created dangerous turbulence.

The jetliner's computer systems ultimately failed, and the plane broke apart likely in midair as it crashed into the Atlantic on a flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris Sunday night.

But investigators will have little to go on until they recover the plane's "black box" flight data and voice recorders, now likely on the ocean floor miles beneath the surface.




TWC has debunked the 100mph updraft theory,said there's no was no accurate way to measure any updrafts in the area,now with no wreckage,they still don't even know if it went down in a storm,for all we know the plane crashed before encountering any storms,imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning dbw!!!
yea I know orca,some people on here might get upset,but "I'm just being honest"
as benjamin from the outcasts would say,lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No debris from Air Bus found, according to this morning's reports. Ugh!
More weather info from incident:

Meteorologists said the Air France jet entered an unusual storm with 100 mph (160 kph) updrafts that acted as a vacuum, sucking water up from the ocean. The moist air rushed up to the plane's high altitude, where it quickly froze in minus-40 degree temperatures. The updrafts also would have created dangerous turbulence.

The jetliner's computer systems ultimately failed, and the plane broke apart likely in midair as it crashed into the Atlantic on a flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris Sunday night.

But investigators will have little to go on until they recover the plane's "black box" flight data and voice recorders, now likely on the ocean floor miles beneath the surface.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So ECMWF, GFS and NAM lift a system across Central America into the Carribean. CMC and UKM keep the system in the East Pacific, and HPC says.....

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

RELIED HEAVILY ON THE MOST RECENT EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM 12Z/04 FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. CONSIDERING THE LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE DAYS 2 AND 3...IT IS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE A MESS AS WELL. PERHAPS THE SAFEST THING TO SAY IS THAT RELYING ON ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC MODEL WOULD NOT BE ADVISABLE THIS FORECAST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Boating-Lightning Protection
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1012. gator23
Im so over this ghost storm. It hasnt even been born yet. I will be more excited on Monday... or disappointed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1011. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


latest surface
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

I hope this link works
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

00z UKMET says west to the EPAC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

NOGAPS under Cyclone Phase
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

ECMWF 24 HOURS OUT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:


nope!!!,stillwaitings stillwaiting for that TC landfall in my area(we get 2 or 3 scares a season),lol....it's gonna hit tampa!!!,NOT


Don't even say that... people on here would freak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL, does this mean... your not stillwaiting?


nope!!!,stillwaitings stillwaiting for that TC landfall in my area(we get 2 or 3 scares a season),lol....it's gonna hit tampa!!!,NOT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leftovers:
hopefully leftovers origional forecast from 2 days ago comes to fruit. he said this sw carib system would move over latin america and out to sea. why did he forecast this? well alot of you all were in diapers when he first got interested in the tropics. he been there and done that. if not and the system moves north. it could be a bad storm.


????
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5282
1001. IKE
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Ike your nogaps link has an error


Thanks...I corrected it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1000. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, , this is definitely going to be a weird year. The gfs and ngp are modelling a storm... and the CMC is not... whats wrong with that picture?


Agree. It is odd.

Not sure what's going to happen with this.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Ike your nogaps link has an error
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
.48 inches in the last 20minutes!!!,well its about time!!!!


ROFL, does this mean... your not stillwaiting?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.48 inches in the last 20minutes!!!,well its about time!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OK, , this is definitely going to be a weird year. The gfs and ngp are modelling a storm... and the CMC is not... whats wrong with that picture?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
995. IKE
6Z NOGAPS and 6Z NAM are similar in track.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


Satellite image of the day.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
wow one of the t-storms offshore is at 41,000ft,one or 2 of these could go severe,imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
siesta key village area,sarasota...It looks like it might get bad here if the offshore storms continue to build north as they move ashore...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
I see your getting another downpour down on your end SM,you think you could send a little up here on the north end,so I don't have to water my plants???,If you like baby eggplant I have about 5 or 6 for you!!


I live in Ellenton just east of Bradenton and it's been pouring here for almost an hour. Where exactly are you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey. I'll be updating my blog and checking the comments. Multi-tasking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning

Rains Over Southeastern USA; Watching the SW Caribbean

The TPC forecasts a surface trough to develop and move across Nicaragua/Honduras during the next 2-3 days.

updated
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I see your getting another downpour down on your end SM,you think you could send a little up here on the north end,so I don't have to water my plants???,If you like baby eggplant I have about 5 or 6 for you!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning
very good analysis 456 this morning. it also looks to me that an area of disturbed weather is now forming at the tail of the monsoon trough in the eastern pacific south of panaama. if this trend continues it will take away the energy from the western caribbean and stop whatever tropical genesis which the global models are hinting at. could it be that the models have it wrong and the cyclogenesis is for the epac. there are the next 48 hrs to find out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
anyone who's up:should I go fishing ????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have a feeling it's going to be a stellar sunrise this morning shining thru the towering cumulus storm clouds...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like the thunder woke us both up!!!,all this rain in our area the last 5 days,only .04 recorded in my immediate area,ever since I put up my weather station,all the weather seems to go around my location or skip over it like the t-storms just did,lol....will it ever rain hard in my location???,bairly a sprinke this morning w/storms everywhere but here!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scottsvb:
Well EPAC is just 1 theory..the other is really my main 1..and thats moving the whole mess NNW over Nicaragua and Honduras and exiting up there somewhere in 3 days or so..."Somewhere"...ok its late... Im
off to bed gn!



I'm thinking that a low w/form about 300-400 miles North of the columbian coast drift nnw and in about 72hrs,begin to develop tropically,Just my take on things...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning - waking to sound of rain and light T-storms here in SWFL --- Sweet!! No watering the veggie garden today!! Actually hoping we get more boomers... but it's not looking like that right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Strong cell to my SW. If it makes it here you can watch the lightning on my cam:

http://www.livestream.com/weatherwarrior


still hasn't decided what direction it's movin

Anyone know how to post a radar animation?

Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
Quoting scottsvb:
Well EPAC is just 1 theory..the other is really my main 1..and thats moving the whole mess NNW over Nicaragua and Honduras and exiting up there somewhere in 3 days or so..."Somewhere"...ok its late... Im
off to bed gn!


Lol me too pretty quick here, goodnight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well EPAC is just 1 theory..the other is really my main 1..and thats moving the whole mess NNW over Nicaragua and Honduras and exiting up there somewhere in 3 days or so..."Somewhere"...ok its late... Im
off to bed gn!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1027 - 977

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
69 °F
Mostly Cloudy