Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Hi Pat:

That's what happens around here, no blobs to chase, the ghosts are the only game in town.

We are back to 80% chance of thunderstorms today. We now have lots of water, but I won't tell it to go away.

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9-panel UNYSIS GFS SL Pres/Prec Plot
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128228
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173. IKE
Quoting zoomiami:


Even I, hopelessly naive on many points, got the point of that!


Then just call me an idiot.
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Some boomers approaching.......be careful if you have to drive through them.

Mobile Radar
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Quoting Patrap:
A Lot to do about nuthin..LOL

Ya chasing Ghosts ,..GFS style


Dido Pat
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
170. IKE
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Something to note:
Only a select couple passed east of Florida in June.




That's what I'm worrying about...the 12Z GFS trended further west...the 12Z NOGAPS is even further west.

I wouldn't be shocked if this ghost-storm doesn't head into the SE GOM...IF it ever forms, which seems increasing likely.
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Hehe... all eyes on 12Z ECMWF by 3PM ET.
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A Lot to do about nuthin..LOL

Ya chasing Ghosts ,..GFS style
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128228
Quoting IKE:


I'd read about rope around his neck and body, but didn't put 1 + 1 together. I thought he might have been murdered.



Even I, hopelessly naive on many points, got the point of that!
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This is rather the most interesting case of the season.
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165. IKE
12Z NOGAPS shoots a vortex up the Yucatan channel....Link
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Something to note:
Only a select couple passed east of Florida in June.

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Drak if you cannont be more percise 1 week out you need to STOP Blogging! Come on Man!....ROFLMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
The steering flow seems to prevent it from entering the Gulf (due to a sprawling ridge over Mexico) but pulls it more west as it leaves Cuba due to a building ridge bringing it in close proximity to the East Coast of Florida and the Bahamas. The low is ulimately pulled off towards the NE ahead of an advancing trough across the Eastern CONUS.

The wave heights show 3-8 ft seas along the US East Coast. It seems if this track verifies it places many persons in the affected zone, from the Caymans to New England.

This occurs 168 hrs -384 hrs or more than 1 week so scrutiny is required.
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Quoting jeffs713:


Um... this IS the GFS we are talking about. It has a quota of apocolypto-canes that it has to spin up out of nowhere each season.

I wouldn't put too much faith in its intensity or track until it actually forms.


True. Was just pointing out what the GFS was showing.
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159. 7544
pretty close with the gfs see next run stay tuned
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WEATHER-456-I just looked at the NOGAPS model,it shows a low moving over S.W.Florida in roughly 144 hours.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
60 knots, huh? That's kind of high for a global model...in June.


Um... this IS the GFS we are talking about. It has a quota of apocolypto-canes that it has to spin up out of nowhere each season.

I wouldn't put too much faith in its intensity or track until it actually forms.
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155. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Yeah, I just read about it a little while ago. It stinks. Oh well, back to the weather.......


I'd read about rope around his neck and body, but didn't put 1 + 1 together. I thought he might have been murdered.

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lowest pressure 989 mb and crosses Cuba within 1 week.
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456...not obsessed...just entertained...
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Quoting IKE:


Oh man really?



Yeah, I just read about it a little while ago. It stinks. Oh well, back to the weather.......
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...and then Drak, sir, good ol' bud...It's definitely gonna slam into "the Carolinas" and destroy every living creature, right?!?!?!??!
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60 knots, huh? That's kind of high for a global model...in June.
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Some people are really obsessed with JFV.
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Potential Genesis Area Zoom +162 hrs, highest winds 60 knots

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Passes Florida to the east.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
Quoting IKE:


Now WeatherStudentJFV will really be fired up.

Looks headed N to NNE toward south Florida on this run.


He already admitted it to me it a private message that he is JFV. What a shocker!!!! OMG I NEVER knew...

I told him he should just admit it so we can move on...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
Thanks Drak good buddy ol pal.... long time no see
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120 hrs GFS seen on the potential cyclogenesis area

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Hehe... hope we don't see the "school" comments... although that's just wishful thinking.
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142. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
The GFS looks like it wants a hurricane just south of Cuba.


Now WeatherStudentJFV will really be fired up.

Looks headed N to NNE toward south Florida on this run.
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It's not common that you get the GFS to bomb out in a close time frame for a system that doesn't presently exist. Usually it saves that for the low-resolution long-range.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
OMG!!!!!! I live in "the Carolinas"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm doomed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting IKE:


The Carolina's....lol.


LOL
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
The GFS looks like it wants a hurricane just south of Cuba.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
136. IKE
Quoting presslord:
Aw c'mon Drak!!!!!!!!!!!

Tell us...

Where's it gonna hit?!?!?!?!?!??!?


The Carolina's....lol.
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Aw c'mon Drak!!!!!!!!!!!

Tell us...

Where's it gonna hit?!?!?!?!?!??!?
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134. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Oh man, Grasshopper hung himself, I was really hoping it was natural causes. How tragic and sad.


Oh man really?

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Quoting IKE:
Yeah...it is further west, by a good 100-150 miles.


Yeah... GFS likes to favor premature right turns a bit too early, but typically has it pretty much on track when it's less than 72hr or so...
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Is there a model predicting a storm in the near future?
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Oh man, Grasshopper hung himself, I was really hoping it was natural causes. How tragic and sad.
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130. IKE
Yeah...it is further west, by a good 100-150 miles.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


So does that mean that it might no longer have the opportunity to swing off to the northeast like the earlier runs of these models were potentially depicting it might do since the axis of the approaching ridge might be building in a little bit sooner then predicted, Drakster? By the way, good Thursday morning all!!!


At this point, with nothing to look at, it's best to look at climatology to find out where a storm may go that forms in that location.

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128. IKE
GFS 12Z looks further west vs. the 6Z run on the "ghost-storm".
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Because the invest is no more. It has ceased to be. It has expired, and has gone to meet its maker. It is an ex-invest!

No - it's pining for the Fjords!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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