Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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227. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:
IKE, this is all I could find. UKMET is hiding under a rock lately.

UKMET


Thanks...yeah it's hard to find now.
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I think the biggest problem here on the west coast of FL is the majority of people have never experienced or even seen a West Coast hurricane with a large storm surge. Tampa is vulnerable, yes, but so is the rest of the W. Coast with the shallow shelf along the Gulf Coast. In a Cat 5 hurricane, my county I grew up in basically doesn't exist anymore. Unfortunatley it will take one of those storms to wake the vast majority of people up to the danger.
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Hey Levi!
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Deep Southwest flow in Ft Myers today....Not too bad near the coast as the storms are pushing inland....we are not even close to drenching the drought near the coast as most storms have been firing off near 75 and going east.
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i just wish that blob yesterday in the GOM would have evolved.
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Quoting Drakoen:
It would be rare to have a Caribbean system eject out of the Caribbean in such a fashion for this time of year. No doubt track is uncertain at this time.

Uhhh... have you seen the average June storm track?
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Global Tropics Hazards/Benefits Assessment
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
220. JRRP
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There are certain cities on the coast where a huge storm surge would be deadly, I keep thinking about New York City if something came in there.
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It would be rare to have a Caribbean system eject out of the Caribbean in such a fashion for this time of year. No doubt track is uncertain at this time.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
Quoting Vortex95:
Eyyyy Ikester!!!!


ROFL!
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IKE, this is all I could find. UKMET is hiding under a rock lately.

UKMET
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting Weather456:


Thanks! appreciate it :)


Not a problem!! :) Actually, it was closer to 48%, but I didn't want everyone to think you were a GENIUS or anything!!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't think The folks in Tampa realize how much water a Cat4 Cane will bring into the BAy of Tampa! MY house would be completely under water! The Canal chain and major water ways will go inland a long way. It would be about as bad as New Orleans but, the water would move out very fast.


I have friends who live 8 miles inland who are still in surge zones. It wouldn't be pretty. The majority of the people in the Tampa Bay area have never experienced a hurricane.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Ex-92L today at 12 UTC:



Making an extratropical transition due to increasing wind shear............ We will keep an eye on the residual swirl. It will make landfall in Spain next Saturday.
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212. IKE
I had 2 folks that had life insurance with me blow their brains out years ago...both within 6 months of each other. One an old man that had crippling uncle arthur that couldn't take it anymore.

The other was a 30 something man who did it in his front yard and his mom found him.

There was an older man that jumped off of the mid-bay bridge in Destin 2-3 months ago and committed suicide.
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Good morning all!

Tropical Tidbit from 1:20pm eastern time
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting CaneWarning:


About half the people I know say they wouldn't evacuate. In fact, they didn't evacute when Charley was forecast to hit Tampa.


I don't think The folks in Tampa realize how much water a Cat4 Cane will bring into the BAy of Tampa! MY house would be completely under water! The Canal chain and major water ways will go inland a long way. It would be about as bad as New Orleans but, the water would move out very fast.
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205...had a friend jump off the skyway bridge in Tampa st pete.....

not anymore less tragic. But i hear ya.
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What would the XtremeHurricanes.com team do should "the big one" hit Tampa, FL?

This will give you a valuable insight into what our thought processes would be in this extremely high-risk situation.
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Quoting eye2theskies:


...But only 47% of the time.


Thanks! appreciate it :)
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204. IKE
Anyone here that can link up the 12Z UKMET...old bud....sir.....IKESTER would appreciate it....
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203. IKE
Quoting Patrap:

David Carradine spoke of suicide wish before his death in Bangkok hotel

In a 2004 interview which may have foretold his death, Carradine said: "I remember one time sitting in the window of the third or fourth floor of the Plaza Hotel for about an hour, thinking about just tipping off. And that was at a time when I was having more fun than you could imagine.

"I just thought, 'Who the ---- cares, man? Why don't I just split?' Of course I didn't, so there you go."


The actor, star of cult 1970s television series Kung Fu, said he had also considered shooting himself.

"Look, there was a period in my life when I had a single action Colt 45, loaded, in my desk drawer. And every night I'd take it out and think about blowing my head off, and then decide not to and go on with my life. Put it back in the drawer and open up the laptop and continue writing my autobiography or whatever. But it was just to see."


O......K.......

That man needed some help....too late now.
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Quoting OnTheFlats:
Weather 456 is 150% correct.


...But only 47% of the time.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
Some boomers approaching.......be careful if you have to drive through them.

Mobile Radar


They are here, so I'm sitting at work listening to the rain and trying to stay awake. LOL
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
It's only a model.........



I know what that is... it's the new version of the hummer now that China's going to build them.
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
A short season would be terrific. Early start, early finish?

From prior blog, RE: Tampa
Florida Emergency Management may have it a little more together than NOLA did at the time (though I am sure that has changed). Evacuation is the key when it comes to storm surge - hopefully evacuation of Tampa would begin early on a volunteer basis.
Seriously, would any of you in Tampa wait to be told to leave, if a hurricane was heading in your direction? I know that I have always left about 30 minutes before they anticipated calling an evacuation (Charleston, SC). If I lived in Tampa or NOLA, I would move that time line up a quite a bit. Run from the water! Sometimes removing oneself from the battlefield is the better side of valor.


About half the people I know say they wouldn't evacuate. In fact, they didn't evacute when Charley was forecast to hit Tampa.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667


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My neighbor across the street commited suicide days before X-mas due economic despair and I was just drinking a beer and joking with him the day before and I would've never seen the pain behind his eyes. You just never know!!
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Yes,Grasshopper,,Wise and "VARY" prudent
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
Weather 456 is 150% correct.
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David Carradine spoke of suicide wish before his death in Bangkok hotel

In a 2004 interview which may have foretold his death, Carradine said: "I remember one time sitting in the window of the third or fourth floor of the Plaza Hotel for about an hour, thinking about just tipping off. And that was at a time when I was having more fun than you could imagine.

"I just thought, 'Who the ---- cares, man? Why don't I just split?' Of course I didn't, so there you go."


The actor, star of cult 1970s television series Kung Fu, said he had also considered shooting himself.

"Look, there was a period in my life when I had a single action Colt 45, loaded, in my desk drawer. And every night I'd take it out and think about blowing my head off, and then decide not to and go on with my life. Put it back in the drawer and open up the laptop and continue writing my autobiography or whatever. But it was just to see."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
It is nice to see that a simple question about a model can cause a 2 day argument. Sorry about that
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I wanted to fish this evening for BFT's and the rain chance is 80% but I don't see anything happening yet and with the seabreeze strong here on the east coast of Fla. I don't see the storms pushing too far east today. Any opinions?
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Quoting IKE:



That's what I'm worrying about...the 12Z GFS trended further west...the 12Z NOGAPS is even further west.

I wouldn't be shocked if this ghost-storm doesn't head into the SE GOM...IF it ever forms, which seems increasing likely.


Hard to second guess 155 years of Climo for storms that form in the NW Carrib. The ones that did pass east formed in the SW carrib, not the NW.
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It is 100% certain that potential development and movement is uncertain.

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It's only a model.........

Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
nice climatology post canewhisperer
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Lake Okeechobee was at 10.25 or .45 before the rains started two weeks ago. Today's water level is 11.36. I guess our drought is over until next year.

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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
60 knots, huh? That's kind of high for a global model...in June.


The GFS doesn't have the resolution to observe the inner core of the the system, especially of one with such depth as it is presenting. Likely those are outer core winds. The inner core is best observed by the HWRF and GFDL models.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
182. IKE
Quoting zoomiami:


Hi Ike - never would call you that. Its just heartening that I'm not the only one who misses the point sometimes.

Storms up your way yet today?


I just can't picture him committing suicide...I couldn't picture the lead singer of Boston, Brad Delp, killing himself either.

Yeah...we had rain this morning.
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The models are pretty accurate in predicting where and when low pressure will form but of course we all know that until a COC forms, the models haven't a clue as to track or intensity.
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Hiya zoo,..Model Hunting always a Fun Sport.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
Quoting IKE:


Then just call me an idiot.


Hi Ike - never would call you that. Its just heartening that I'm not the only one who misses the point sometimes.

Storms up your way yet today?
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Quoting presslord:
...and then Drak, sir, good ol' bud...It's definitely gonna slam into "the Carolinas" and destroy every living creature, right?!?!?!??!


And it will be Gobal wrming and all of those mean destructive SUVuser's fault too :o)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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