Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Ike,
ECMWF??
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Would anyone like to answer a weather question?
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marcoisland-I agree, as there was at least 10-14 min beforehand, the pilot texted at 11pm, and at 11:14 the last msg came thru. so the people on the plane had to know something bad was happening and I cant imagine their fear. God Bless them all.
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Quoting Levi32:


Been alright, but the volcanic ash is turning my hair grey, along with everything else I might add...

How are things with you?

Not too bad, Levi...all things considered...
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Quoting Floodman:
Random, I was talking about the NOAA and NHC post storm summaries; they always seem to be a little conservative


oh ok...lol! I think they always rest on the conservative side...haha
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Random, I was talking about the NOAA and NHC post storm summaries; they always seem to be a little conservative
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Maybe THIS would explain the thrust issues Air France was having. Sounds very similar
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270. JRRP

see u later
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
(regarding Air France) It could have been a bomb too. Link
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


The Airbus doesn't share the same shock absorbing wing attributes that it's counterpart Boeing features. The assumption is very possible.


Maybe so, but Boeings blow up all the same........TWA Flight 800.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Imagine how scary it must have been to be in that plane getting ripped apart in midair? Although I guess with the pressure change you wouldn't be conscious for a lot of it but you would have to have been aware of the initial extreme turbulence followed by the plane shredding in mid-air and about 1min of consciousness before the pressure change knocked you out, correct?

horrifying.
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266. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:
It looks like my weather will be modified over the upcoming weekend due to the tropical wave. We desperately need tyhe rains here as low aquiefers have resulted in water conservation and low pressure in pipes.

yeah.... The first showers of the year from a tropical wave
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
Quoting futuremet:


Where do you live?


Saint Kitts....extreme NE Caribbean
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Quoting MobileMob:

Thanks for info, I'm in the Cat 4-5 areas, so if one of those come around I won't be sticking around.


You can download that pdf and print it if you want a hard copy. I live in West Mobile, well out of the zone, and the only reason I'd stick around for a cat 4-5 is because it would take days before I'd be allowed back in to secure our property. Residential looters have a hayday immediately following bad storms.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting Weather456:
It looks like my weather will be modified over the upcoming weekend due to the tropical wave. We desperately need tyhe rains here as low aquiefers have resulted in water conservation and low pressure in pipes.


Where do you live?
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Quoting Kahlest:
Starting to sound like the Air France plane hit a rather large and nasty microburst. Pilot sent an manual message that they were going into a large storm. A few minutes later they got an automated message that the auto pilot was disengaged then electronic systems failure and just before it disappeared from radar they got a message that cabin pressure was compromised. Just from this information, without the black boxes it sounds like the storm ripped the plane apart in the air.


The Airbus doesn't share the same shock absorbing wing attributes that it's counterpart Boeing features. The assumption is very possible.
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Looks like the 12Z GFS is even more aggressive with this system. On the contrary, the NOGAPS and the CMC are apparently dropping this system..

Interesting image

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It looks like my weather will be modified over the upcoming weekend due to the tropical wave. We desperately need tyhe rains here as low aquiefers have resulted in water conservation and low pressure in pipes.
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257.

And people wonder why I'm so scared of flying...
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Starting to sound like the Air France plane hit a rather large and nasty microburst. Pilot sent an manual message that they were going into a large storm. A few minutes later they got an automated message that the auto pilot was disengaged then electronic systems failure and just before it disappeared from radar they got a message that cabin pressure was compromised. Just from this information, without the black boxes it sounds like the storm ripped the plane apart in the air.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
In case anyone is interested......

Mobile County Storm Surge Map

Thanks for info, I'm in the Cat 4-5 areas, so if one of those come around I won't be sticking around.
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Quoting IKE:
Looks like the 12Z CMC dropped development around Florida.


Ike it is like the stock market each model has its highs, lows always read the prospectus first, lol .
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250. LOL
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252. IKE
Quoting scottsvb:


Settle down Beavis... it will happen when it happens.. LOL!


LOL.
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Floodman--

I think the Miss coast gets higher storm surges than NOAA usually predicts... it always seems that the SS that they get there is larger than the models predict...jmo
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249. JRRP
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
if weatherstudent is JFV then which pic should i see in my head? The tuxedo shot or the hip hop shot? Wow good call Drak.
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In case anyone is interested......

Mobile County Storm Surge Map
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting WeatherStudent:


It's gonna materialize, believe me, bud, it shall. Because the GFS Model is historically extraordinarily accurate when it comes to it sniffing out these types of tropical entities before they actually commence to form, so, stay tune. :)


Settle down Beavis... it will happen when it happens.. LOL!
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I was in a multi- story building during Charley made sure of that. We had the option to go up 4 floors if need be. If Charley had been moving slower or been closer to an average hurricane in size, it would have been devastating. To think that a hurricane with virtually no surge and a radius of maximum winds only 6 miles wide caused 15 billion in damage is mind blowing to me. It's a testament to the severity of the wind in the eyewall.And that I can tell you firsthand was pretty terrifying.
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Isn't the actual water level line a combination of storm surge and waves? 6 ft waves on top of a 19 ft storm surge would give you a 25 ft water line.
Does storm surge predictions include the tides or not? If not then add height of tide to that surge.

I guess, what I am trying to say, is that, I believe storm surge is only one component of the water you will see.

If this is incorrect, I am sure someone will correct my mistake ; )
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Man, just got another downpour here.

currently at .28 inch of rain (and rising) in the past 20min or so.

Over 1.1 inches since june 1 and four consecutive days of rain to start the month of June.
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Quoting Floodman:
Hey, Levi! How you been?


Been alright, but the volcanic ash is turning my hair grey, along with everything else I might add...

How are things with you?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26659
3 florida hurricanes happend in June that came from the area in the carribean of intrest, if it still is haven't checked GFS yet:

Alma
Allison(95)
Agnes
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Flood..it is a scary thought. When Charley hit SWFL and I live in Cape Coral---15 miles south from the eye...I thought we were gonna die due to surge...they told us right before the power went out on the news to be prepared for a 15-20 foot surge! Mind you this was when it blew up(RI) and did not give us time to evacuate. Here I am with a ladder ready to go in case we have to get in the attic (which after Katrina i realize i would need an axe too)Of course now i know about how a surge builds and take the attitude i do now. I am glad they are adressing the surge scale to not just go by category whatever.
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Jupiter, FL seems to have found it's own little rain tap. It's been raining here for several hours, heavy rain.

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Hey, Levi! How you been?
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Quoting scottsvb:


Well alot of the parishes and low coastal areas are alittle below sea level.. if they said it was 14ft...it was 14ft above sea level..not counting the few feet below sea level parts of the areas are in ..such as New Orleans!


I was talking about coastal Mississippi...New Orleans is all bets off...
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235. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Its still on the FSU site but hidden. Don't know how much longer it may be there.

Sea Level


Thanks...it shows nothing too.

Not much to back up what the GFS is spitting out.

I may have that baked crow w/A1 sauce.
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234. IKE
Looks like the 12Z CMC dropped development around Florida.
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Quoting IKE:
Anyone here that can link up the 12Z UKMET...old bud....sir.....IKESTER would appreciate it....


Its still on the FSU site but hidden. Don't know how much longer it may be there.

Sea Level
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I hope a TS or C1 hurricane do come towards south carolina next week. It will give me something to do for my first week of summer vacation.
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Quoting Floodman:


Everyone underestimates surge...I'll be honest, I saw a lot of NOAA and NHC data post-Katrina that didn't match my field experience; when you have scour at 22' up trees and buildings and the NHC says the max surge in the area was 14' there's something not right. Howdy folks, by the way...


Hey floodman! Haven't seen you around in forever.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26659
Quoting Floodman:


Everyone undersetimates surge...I'll be honest, I saw a lot of NOAA and NHC data post-Katrina that didn't match my field experience; when you have scour at 22' up trees and buildings and the NHC says the max surge in the area was 14' there's something not right. Howdy folks, by the way...


Well alot of the parishes and low coastal areas are alittle below sea level.. if they said it was 14ft...it was 14ft above sea level..not counting the few feet below sea level parts of the areas are in ..such as New Orleans!
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I have friends who live 8 miles inland who are still in surge zones. It wouldn't be pretty. The majority of the people in the Tampa Bay area have never experienced a hurricane.


Everyone underestimates surge...I'll be honest, I saw a lot of NOAA and NHC data post-Katrina that didn't match my field experience; when you have scour at 22' up trees and buildings and the NHC says the max surge in the area was 14' there's something not right. Howdy folks, by the way...
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Charlotte Jeff

the layout of the west coast from around tampa south does not allow for much of a chance of a huge surging storm. The reason is because of protection from cuba and the yucatan. For a storm to come directly in a straight line is rare (west to east) they usually go straight north to the panhandle or "button hook" to the right from a front. The second does not allow for a huge surge to build (ie charley) Wilma was the closest thing as it hooked off the yucatan into naples..

Donna came up the coast line as a major storm but did not bring a massive surge with it..it did not have a chance to build it in a straight line.
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227. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:
IKE, this is all I could find. UKMET is hiding under a rock lately.

UKMET


Thanks...yeah it's hard to find now.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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