Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Quoting chsweatherintern2009:
and here we go again with all the hyping. Before you go and start freaking out. Let the thing develop. The GFS always hypes. if you want to hype got to accuhype. not here


I don't see any hype going on? If anything... this is one of the more sane conversation I have seen on here?
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and here we go again with all the hyping. Before you go and start freaking out. Let the thing develop. The GFS always hypes. if you want to hype got to accuhype. not here
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Quoting CaneWarning:
I would think the interaction with Cuba would harm the storm more than that model shows.


I dont think they do well with land interaction
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
One thing I've notice was large upper high parked over the feature moving over high TCHP. One reason why the GFS is bombing this feature


Since you are talking from an experienced background... GFS possible, or do you think its out of touch with reality?
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Ahhhhhhhhhh,now I can see the GFS soultion...!

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841


heres 700mb/slp/500/1000 mb
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NWS Miami....

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE GFS MODEL STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVING IT NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS BY END OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEP THE
LOW DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODEL...AS THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING
THE DEEPENING OF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT WEEK PULLING THE LOW
NORTHEAST. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE CWA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODELS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT AND POSITION OF THE LOW DURING NEXT WEEK.
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I would think the interaction with Cuba would harm the storm more than that model shows.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Open the Flue above a Vigorous Surface Low..and Down she goes..in MB

Venting is a Must in a Bomber
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting hurricane23:
Strong ts/minimal cane



Earlier WX discussions said the GFS was too quick with this area, have those been solved on this run?

I am not buying into the storm being east of Florida though. The June climo map backs that up with 155 years of data. This could be an odd ball and go east but it will be one of those prove it and I'll believe it scenarios.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
big blog in W Pac but it will probably fizzle


Is that blog on WeatherUnderground?
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One thing I've notice was large upper high parked over the feature moving over high TCHP. One reason why the GFS is bombing this feature
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
A Mighty Thank You to Ma Nature for the June Frontal Passage. Dewpoints are going down and Morning Lows as well.

WU-US Frontal Map in Motion
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841


at 156 hr shows system se of isle of youth nw of jamaica sw of cuba
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big blog in W Pac but it will probably fizzle
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2377
Quoting MarcoIsland:


Yes, I agree there but assuming the wing broke off or part of the wing and didn't break the pressure seal for a short time.



So what is the morbid curiosity? Plane broke up.. their dead... did they know.. umm who cares.. result is the same?
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GOM IR Image Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


The main thing, though, I guess is that you don't really see anything of any consequence forming until about 5 days from now at 120 or so hours.


I just posts thems as I sees them
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Strong ts/minimal cane

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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



At 37000 feet, the temperature is a balmy -69.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

Minus 69 degrees @ 500mph, need I say more?


Yes, I agree there but assuming the wing broke off or part of the wing and didn't break the pressure seal for a short time.

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Quoting CaneWarning:


Wow Orca that looks like quite a storm.


The blog will be rocking if it comes true.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
The gfs, still has Cuba and Florida getting a little bit of a blow.

The cmc & ngp... not so much

Little blow good. Big blow bad.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
The gfs, still has Cuba and Florida getting a little bit of a blow.

The cmc & ngp... not so much


Wow Orca that looks like quite a storm.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667


1996 El Nino
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting Orcasystems:
The gfs, still has Cuba and Florida getting a little bit of a blow.

The cmc & ngp... not so much


The main thing, though, I guess is that you don't really see anything of any consequence forming until about 5 days from now at 120 or so hours.
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El Nino will most likely develop but will it be a 2006 El Nino or 2004 El Nino?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Are you buying into this scenerio, Hurricane23?


Yes i am to some point but iam not sure i buy the hurricane intensity on the 12z run.Something to watch over the weekend.
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The gfs, still has Cuba and Florida getting a little bit of a blow.

The cmc & ngp... not so much
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Quoting WxLogic:
Well... no much of a system from 12Z ECMWF... it has a weak low tracking NE in the same fashion as depicted on the GFS, but considerably weaker as pretty much expected of a non so aggressive model.


It shows up nicely on the latest HPC Forecast.

Link
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Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike,
ECMWF??


Similar to GFS in terms of track.12z ECM
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Well... no much of a system from 12Z ECMWF... it has a weak low tracking NE in the same fashion as depicted on the GFS, but considerably weaker as pretty much expected of a non so aggressive model.
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Quoting Weather456:
I like to think outside the box and El Nino is a real possibility but what if November 30 we have 15 named storms or a year similar to 08 or 04 that would bite us right in the as* and reduce our understanding of ENSO.


I predict 15/5/3.

Remember 2004 was an El Niño and we got all the way to Otto which is 15.
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Quoting Weather456:
I like to think outside the box and El Nino is a real possibility but what if November 30 we have 15-20 named storms or a year similar to 08 or 09 that would bite us right in the as* and reduce our understanding of the tropics.


What really matters is whether Mother Nature is well supplied with coffee, especially early on this season. It didn't happen in 2005, and we know what happened there...
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Quoting NOWCAST:
is it cooling or does it just look like its cooling that is the question.


I see what you're looking at. I wonder if determining an El Nino/La Nina has more to do with departures from normal. In other words, it may be cooling, but is it still warmer than normal?

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I like to think outside the box and El Nino is a real possibility but what if November 30 we have 15 named storms or a year similar to 08 or 04 that would bite us right in the as* and reduce our understanding of ENSO.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Ah GFS trying to throw a cane at me its alright.Everybody seems to be in agreement lol on 11/5/2.
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is it cooling or does it just look like its cooling that is the question.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



At 37000 feet, the temperature is a balmy -69.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

Minus 69 degrees @ 500mph, need I say more?


Not to mention the whole no oxygen thing.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Link
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Quoting MarcoIsland:
Imagine how scary it must have been to be in that plane getting ripped apart in midair? Although I guess with the pressure change you wouldn't be conscious for a lot of it but you would have to have been aware of the initial extreme turbulence followed by the plane shredding in mid-air and about 1min of consciousness before the pressure change knocked you out, correct?

horrifying.



At 37000 feet, the temperature is a balmy -69.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

Minus 69 degrees @ 500mph, need I say more?
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I see something troubling in the la nina region. Cooler waters have recently expanded west. Is La NINA making a comeback? And if so why do they over look the past week or so of cooling?
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Quoting NOWCAST:
Would anyone like to answer a weather question?


Shoot! But be prepared for 5 or 6 different answers..........LOL
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793

AOI #1

AOI #2
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Maybe THIS would explain the thrust issues Air France was having. Sounds very similar


You'd think those bozo's would have fixed that, but who knows.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Ike,
ECMWF??
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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