Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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If someone is Not aware of Analog going Digital in a Few Days,.well then they aint been watching much TV the Last 2years.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
Looks like someone else is picking up on this,

http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=30390&z=3


"The long range forecast keeps showers and storms in the afternoon to start next week. A few long-range models are also hinting at something developing in the tropics (western Caribbean) by late next week. It's way too soon to get excited about that aspect of the forecast."
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting Patrap:
A FM Radio or AM one is a much better need than a TV in a Emergency.

One can Run a Digital TV on a Generator too.

Many Portable TV's now are Digital as well.

www.lcddigital.tv

Yea but they start at $249 and the battery life is bad bc they use the same batteries laptops use...no more D batteries...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:


They aren't expensive, you can get them for about $100.


$100 is quite expensive in comparison to a cheap analog unit though. I think the main concern is that people won't realize they won't work until the power's out ... little late at that point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

What a guy - you are keeping your halo clean! I'm impressed! I think of future AOI in 120 hours or so may come from the tropical wave that is at 40W. What are your thoughts?


The models' time frame and the wave's time frame are off a bit. By the time the wave reaches the W carib the AOI may already be south of the Caymans and that is why there is uncertainty with the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic.

Yesterday I actually thought it would reach the WCAIB during genesis but upon further analysis the time frames did not conform.


Yeah the wave is moving slower than I thought, but the models are still having a hard time pinning down when the low in the Caribbean actually forms, so it's still uncertain whether the CATL wave will get involved.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting WeatherStudent:



OUCH, that looks catastrophically disturbing.
someone said couple of days ago i hope ana forms soon so we can have something to laugh at

well i hope whoever it was is still laughing
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
A FM Radio or AM one is a much better need than a TV in a Emergency.

One can Run a Digital TV on a Generator too.

Many Portable TV's now are Digital as well.

www.lcddigital.tv

A Lot of Post Analog products are available everyday
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
Quoting TXGulfCoast:
411. You can buy a converter box.

411-they will not work when the power goes out...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the cheapie portable tv sets w/ no cable hookup are not going to work. no tv when i go camping..darn
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
You guys know that with Digital TV now all portable TV's will NOT work unless you buy the expensive portable DTV ones..


They aren't expensive, you can get them for about $100.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
I wonder why none of the TV networks including local ones have picked up on this possible system? I am guessing because it is just models, but still you think someone would pick up on it.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
411. You can buy a converter box.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

What a guy - you are keeping your halo clean! I'm impressed! I think of future AOI in 120 hours or so may come from the tropical wave that is at 40W. What are your thoughts?


The models' time frame and the wave's time frame are off a bit. By the time the wave reaches the W carib the AOI may already be south of the Caymans and that is why there is uncertainty with the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic.

Yesterday I actually thought it would reach the WCAIB during genesis but upon further analysis the time frames did not conform.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Elections for the local councils and European Parliament have just closed.

A minute later, a Cabinet minister resigns, telling Brown to also stand down.

That might be the final straw...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You guys know that with Digital TV now all portable TV's will NOT work unless you buy the expensive portable DTV ones..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys be for we get any thing going at all be for we even start talking about any thing big the following things need too come in too play


1 low wind shear wish we dont have right now

and 93L wish i dont see right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
Quoting Patrap:
how we might react if told we'd have to spend the rest of our lives in Canada....


LMAO @ Press..Wowsa..OMG,Ow it hurts my side..


Actually your right.. it is funny :)
Thanks for quoting it :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Storm for next week looks interesting... As far as the GFS is concerned it keeps the most intense(and I dare say intense, all I could see were 70 mph, maybe more like strong) winds offshore, to the northeast of the center.. Still too close to Flordia for comfort. So I suppose the general consesus is that there will be an area of possible cyclogenesis next week in the southwestern caribbean sea. At the beginning of the model run and lasting throughout the forecast period, it looks like the subtropical high will slide to the east, but it looks like towarde the very end it begins to nudge back west slightly,and strengthens just a bit. So whatever does form looks like it could potentially be pushed back toward the west once it moves into the southwestern atlantic.
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Quoting presslord:


yea...I don't see it so much as morbid curiosity as simply something which touches a deep fear in all of us...similar, for instance, to how we might react if told we'd have to spend the rest of our lives in Canada....


Agreed. I always wonder what must go through someones mind when something like that is happening. I hope I'll never have to find out.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
how we might react if told we'd have to spend the rest of our lives in Canada....


LMAO @ Press..Wowsa..OMG,Ow it hurts my side..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
Quoting MarcoIsland:


Because I can only imagine being a relative or friend of someone on that plane. I know I would be more at peace with the event if I knew my friend didn't suffer or wasn't scared out of his mind the last moments of his life. Just knowing that their loved ones could have been in such a state of terror in their last moments must be a horrible feeling for the families.


OK, simple answer.. there is no such thing as instant death (other then maybe a bullet in the head).. they knew, let it go.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting MarcoIsland:


Because I can only imagine being a relative or friend of someone on that plane. I know I would be more at peace with the event if I knew my friend didn't suffer or wasn't scared out of his mind the last moments of his life. Just knowing that their loved ones could have been in such a state of terror in their last moments must be a horrible feeling for the families.


yea...I don't see it so much as morbid curiosity as simply something which touches a deep fear in all of us...similar, for instance, to how we might react if told we'd have to spend the rest of our lives in Canada....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting chsweatherintern2009:
Hey guys you know what is scary it will be the 20th anniversary of hugo this year. I am not trying to scare any one i am just saying


I lived in SC for 15 years. I done the research. If it snows more then 3 inches in South Carolina during the winter it will be a major hurricane hit them. 89, snow january , Hugo hit. 99, snow, then floyd which dumped alot of rain, 09, snow, then Grace or Ida. Every 10 years, a big one hits the SC coast.
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402. IKE
18Z NAM at 84 hours...

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Quoting Orcasystems:


So what is the morbid curiosity? Plane broke up.. their dead... did they know.. umm who cares.. result is the same?


Because I can only imagine being a relative or friend of someone on that plane. I know I would be more at peace with the event if I knew my friend didn't suffer or wasn't scared out of his mind the last moments of his life. Just knowing that their loved ones could have been in such a state of terror in their last moments must be a horrible feeling for the families.
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Quoting chsweatherintern2009:
Hey guys you know what is scary it will be the 20th anniversary of hugo this year. I am not trying to scare any one i am just saying


It's also the 17th anniversary of Andrew.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Hey guys you know what is scary it will be the 20th anniversary of hugo this year. I am not trying to scare any one i am just saying
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Quoting Vortex95:
387. It is a tropical cyclone and you can call me Vortex.


lol

....on a side note the model is scary
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Best to be off the roads in those Big uns.
Have a good afternoon
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
CaneW, you'll be a couple of days too early.


I know. I'm sure my numbers are off too. I think I predicted an above average year.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Thanks Patrap! I'm glad not to be driving in that mess. .96 inches from my PWS in about 10 minutes. Looks like more is on the way. Definitely takes care of our watering for the day!
Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Jacksonville, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
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Quoting Vortex95:
387. It is a tropical cyclone and you can call me Vortex.


I usually just lurk here but I have to say...ROTFL!
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CaneW, you'll be a couple of days too early.
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Prepare now and be Ready for the Coming Calamity.
Are you Prepared for Hurricane Season?

Start Now,avoid the Crush of the Rush when a REAL threat Develops.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
Calm down...its just a model. Models are nice to look at for guidance, doesn't mean it will happen.
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Quoting NEwxguy:
No matter what forms,it looks like Florida is going to be very wet next week.


Yep - and I just discovered I have a leaky sky light that needs to be replaced :(
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I just need this thing to form on June 6 so I can win that contest.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667


Jesus what is that
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
No matter what forms,it looks like Florida is going to be very wet next week.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Isn't that the same wave you've been watching since about 37W?

#382 ROFL too funny. Still watching it, still looks pretty healthy, but I wanted to put something weather related in that comment and couldn't think of anything else :o) Hey I took some cool car pictures with my phone last night at an auto show. There's only a couple, but if you are into cars, check them out.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


CW, be good.... don't start it.


Start what? :)
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaneWarning:


Are you prepared? Will you evacuate?


CW, be good.... don't start it.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting WeatherStudent:



OUCH, that looks catastrophically disturbing.


Are you prepared? Will you evacuate?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
WEBcams,JAX

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

What a guy - you are keeping your halo clean! I'm impressed! I think of future AOI in 120 hours or so may come from the tropical wave that is at 40W. What are your thoughts?


Hey.. its a long season and I only have so much polish :)

To answer your other question.. thats out of my league.. that being said... I would say from everything I have read lately, and the timing ... it would have to be.

If you really want to know for sure.. ask 456.



Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
GFS 12Z zoomed in on Florida. Link

Main model page. Link


LOL Scaryyy
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
NEXRAD Radar
Jacksonville, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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