Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Quoting CaneWarning:
I don't own a gun - will a stick work?
as long as the other fella only has a stick
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and don't forget the dress


Ouch, vivid images again, where is that glock when I need it. Ouch !

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KOG....went to visit a freind's mother in the hospital this afternoon...one of his nephews was there...I've never met this kid...but he knew me from the dress thing here...was quite embarassing...
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I don't own a gun - will a stick work?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
chs....Thanks!!!!
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Yessir... I got mine ready... and ain't nobody gonna take them from my hands... btw we are stockpiling ammo here in Texas...


We know,..Chuck Norris let it slip..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
I just saw on the news they are going to drain Tampa Bay's water reservoir for two years to fix the cracks in it in 2012. Not good. Get ready for dead grass around here nobody will be watering anything.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting presslord:
...and don't forget the absolutely essential elements of my Ready Kit...

Mr. Glock...Mr. Browning...and several boxes of ammunition in a water proof container...


Yessir... I got mine ready... and ain't nobody gonna take them from my hands... btw we are stockpiling ammo here in Texas...
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and don't forget the dress
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
press and sj live5 is doing ahugo thing tonight at 7 just wanted to let you know
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...and Mr. Rum...
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Quoting presslord:
...and don't forget the absolutely essential elements of my Ready Kit...

Mr. Glock...Mr. Browning...and several boxes of ammunition in a water proof container...


and Mr. Geritol. LOL.
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AOI #1

AOI #2
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...and don't forget the absolutely essential elements of my Ready Kit...

Mr. Glock...Mr. Browning...and several boxes of ammunition in a water proof container...
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This is a GFS meteogram of 20N-80W just south Cuba where the potential storm is expected to track, showing classic TS conditions





Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
You all just need the $20 inverter to power your coverter from any 12v battery source. They don't use much energy. The magnavox unit I am staring at uses 8w while on. That is as much as a nightlight :)
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Link

No problems with it so far.

Heading off now, will check back later. Great discussion on Andrew last night.
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Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami
There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami.


Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
Quoting presslord:
Yes!!!!!! Mercifully, she's gone...

and if I couldn't give SJ a hard time, my life would have little meaning or purpose....
*shakes head*...poor SJ.
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If ya waiting on the Govt for Halp..you may best start yer Planning for Cane season In January.

Always have a 3-5 Day Supply for Life Sustaining..the Calvary may take a Few days to arrive.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
Quoting CaneWarning:


He just heard someone say "Carolinas".


Say Carols.. he likes that better :)
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448. presslord

Sounds good. You've got my number. I would love to help with the golf thing.I'm finally heading to the boat for some sailing this weekend. It's been six weeks!
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Quoting MarcoIsland:
I just recently purchased a crank flash light (that you can pre-charge) that has AM/FM, NOAA, temperature readout, and SOS Alert noise.

I really like it and it was only 20-30 bucks


I bought the radio that has all of that also for SWMBO'ed as part of her Emergency Social Services kit here. She belongs to the volunteer ESS in our City. I think it cost about $65 Canadian.. which is probably about $5 american (I beat someone to it)
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Yes!!!!!! Mercifully, she's gone...

and if I couldn't give SJ a hard time, my life would have little meaning or purpose....
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Quoting captainhunter:
442. presslord

You seem to be a little worked up this afternoon Press. Everything alright?


He just heard someone say "Carolinas".
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting SouthALWX:
I get what you're all saying but I get the feeling alot of people simply won't think of the small portable television units up and until they need them. People bought the converter boxes and are fine now. Until the power goes out and they think " yup, didn't think about not being able to use this li'l sucker" .... just a thought not trying to argue any points =P If the nation is as prepared to not overlook small details, then I want to know what happened to the good ole days of ignorance I was brought up in. Almost brings tears to my eyes =(


Its a good point SouthAL... I cannot count how many times people were surprised I had phone service in '04 after the hurricanes all because I had a corded phone. Don't give the general public too much credit... Need proof? Come visit my office any time, any day, holy geez!
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I gave you plenty for your Birthday press ¿~)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15634
Unfortunately alot of people are alot dumber than we give them credit for. They expect the government to do it all for them. Its just how it is.
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Quoting captainhunter:
442. presslord

You seem to be a little worked up this afternoon Press. Everything alright?
LOL...mother in law must have left...
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Capt...I'm just a little low on Geritol...need to speak with you in the next couple of weeksabout a Fall PCB golf thing...have a few pieces in place....
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I just recently purchased a crank flash light (that you can pre-charge) that has AM/FM, NOAA, temperature readout, and SOS Alert noise.

I really like it and it was only 20-30 bucks
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442. presslord

You seem to be a little worked up this afternoon Press. Everything alright?
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THats why I keep a Old AT&T rotary dial sound Powered Phone.
Cuz those Walk around ones dont work post power either.

And when the Cell towers Battery Packs die, and they will,..well..your Blind.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
Thanks for the explanation Levi. I've always heard that the GFS has an eastern bias, but never really understood why.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
I get what you're all saying but I get the feeling alot of people simply won't think of the small portable television units up and until they need them. People bought the converter boxes and are fine now. Until the power goes out and they think " yup, didn't think about not being able to use this li'l sucker" .... just a thought not trying to argue any points =P If the nation is as prepared to not overlook small details, then I want to know what happened to the good ole days of ignorance I was brought up in. Almost brings tears to my eyes =(
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SJ...if you're gonna spam the blog...please spam it with:

www.portlight.org
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90% of our information Post Katrina was from Radio...
Only feed for TV was CBS outta Baton Rouge at Night, via Antenna Analog by Gen...till Sept 13-14 time frame,when Cable was restored to our Lil niche.

Not much use either,re-runs of stuff.

Radio is the BEST way to stay informed Post Storm..Hands down.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
Quoting CaneWarning:


If they don't know then they have to be in a coma or something. Local tv stations scroll it at the bottom of the screen and mention it 100 times a day.

True but
Quoting presslord:
SouthAL...part of being prepared is knowing this information...digital conversion has hardly been a secret...I swear to God I'm not trying to be argumentative...but, for the life of me, I don't know how we protect folks from their own chosen ignorance...

You are right, but the lack of portable DTV's at this time is disturbing, Channel 10 news here in Tampa ran a story a couple of weeks ago stating basically the same thing...I guess radio is always the best to have...but us hurricane junkies want to see the radar when the power goes out...
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Something I noticed that really annoys me about the GFS. Here's the 500mb for 180 hours:



Here's 240 hours:



Notice how the GFS split the energy taking the tropical cyclone northeast and leaving another piece behind in the NW Caribbean? It's been doing that the last several runs, and does on a regular basis when forecasting long-range tropical cyclones.

It creates the weakness too far east in the ridge.....it's my experience that you usually have to "average-out" the two vort maxes. The one near the Yucatan at 240 hours is weaker and therefore has "less say-so" in the actual position of the TC, so we would nudge the GFS position slightly further southwest, closer to east Florida rather than southeast of North Carolina. Not saying that this is where the storm will be, but in my experience this is how the GFS interpretations have to be dealt with in what it is seeing.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting SouthALWX:

I know that pat, my point is it may not cross many minds that "hey that unit I use for hurricanes in my attic won't work". I had't thought about it myself until a few weeks back when I was checking my supplies. I'm just throwing it out there that alot of people won't put two and two together on this.


Our local station mentioned it on their hurricane special last week. Hopefully most people are aware.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
well...Look who the cat drug in!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe because models can and will change as we get closer to the event normal rule of tumb is to wait for some type of surface dev to appear first before sounding the alarm


Ya I found a few mentions of "possible tropical weather", I guess if that area actually does form something ppl will be all over it.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
Quoting presslord:
SouthAL...part of being prepared is knowing this information...digital conversion has hardly been a secret...I swear to God I'm not trying to be argumentative...but, for the life of me, I don't know how we protect folks from their own chosen ignorance...


Yeah the whole conversion was even pushed back several months. I am ready for it to happen because I am tired of hearing about it on the news!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Afternoon all

Nice little swirl moving just S of Columbus....Ga...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15634
Quoting Patrap:
If someone is Not aware of Analog going Digital in a Few Days,.well then they aint been watching much TV the Last 2years.

I know that pat, my point is it may not cross many minds that "hey that unit I use for hurricanes in my attic won't work". I had't thought about it myself until a few weeks back when I was checking my supplies. I'm just throwing it out there that alot of people won't put two and two together on this.
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I'm not sure how true this is, but someone told me you could get a portable digital tv that you can crank to provide its energy. I haven't seen it yet myself.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
SouthAL...part of being prepared is knowing this information...digital conversion has hardly been a secret...I swear to God I'm not trying to be argumentative...but, for the life of me, I don't know how we protect folks from their own chosen ignorance...
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Quoting SouthALWX:


$100 is quite expensive in comparison to a cheap analog unit though. I think the main concern is that people won't realize they won't work until the power's out ... little late at that point.


If they don't know then they have to be in a coma or something. Local tv stations scroll it at the bottom of the screen and mention it 100 times a day.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting MrstormX:
I wonder why none of the TV networks including local ones have picked up on this possible system? I am guessing because it is just models, but still you think someone would pick up on it.
maybe because models can and will change as we get closer to the event normal rule of tumb is to wait for some type of surface dev to appear first before sounding the alarm
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
I have a Portable Solar Panel that can Power most of my Needs in a Emergency as well.

They are a Great Investment as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
If someone is Not aware of Analog going Digital in a Few Days,.well then they aint been watching much TV the Last 2years.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.