Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Statement as of 2:33 PM PDT on June 04, 2009

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 am to 9 PM PDT
Friday for the southern Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings
Canyon...

The National Weather Service in Hanford has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect from 6 am to 9 PM
PDT Friday for the southern Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings
Canyon.

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the Sierra Nevada tonight
and Friday. Heaviest amounts of precipitation will occur
Friday... with snow levels lowering to around 7500 feet. Snow
amounts of up to 5 inches are possible above 8000 feet. This will
affect Tioga Pass in Yosemite National Park.

Weather advisory means that periods of snow will cause travel
difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited
visibilities... and use caution while driving.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think part of it is the 18Z run from yesterday
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting presslord:
Thanks Storm...it's all in good fun...


Thanks, we'll all get serious when the time comes.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
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Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
We in America have the right to bear arms and take target practice accordingly. If we didn't, only the bad guys would have that right. Just my take as I exit stage LEFT

OssQss...I didn't know you were a member too?

:)
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Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
The bad boomers are subsiding, but I believe there will be another go round after midnight. I have my candles and bazooka ready just in case.....

Mobile Radar
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
no Jerry today?

:)
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BTW, on the digital converter/inverter item. This item is a great tool to have handy. Jump starter for cars, inflate/deflate,12v power supply,18hrs worth of room lighting, and power the digital converter with inverter for a day or so along with a small TV. Remember, during the storm, you probably will not be using your generator if it is portable and not permanently installed.




We in America have the right to bear arms and take target practice accordingly. If we didn't, only the bad guys would have that right. Just my take as I exit stage LEFT
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Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
homelesswanderer brings up a fine point.

Never in my Life was I so glad to see ICE post K.

I still to this day,wont go anywhere without it in the Summer..

A lil Jack and 7 helps too..LOL
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Thanks Storm...it's all in good fun...
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Quoting Patrap:
If ya waiting on the Govt for Halp..you may best start yer Planning for Cane season In January.

Always have a 3-5 Day Supply for Life Sustaining..the Calvary may take a Few days to arrive.


AMEN! Lol. Seriously though, on our local june first get ready show, they just came right out and said...be prepared to take care of yourself because when a million people need help...Not everyone is going to get it. Period.
Which you would think wouldn't be a news flash to anyone around here. And I can't stress this enough. If you live in an inland town or even a smaller one you will be last to be helped. I applaude Portlight for going to the little towns. Winnie and Bridge City come immediately to mind. None of this who gets what first is fair. But it is true. In some of these smaller towns the Calvary NEVER showed up. They still haven't showed up after Rita much less Ike. Eventually, and it could take weeks, the power will get restored. I don't know. I worry more about people who live where they haven't got a hurricane in a while.

On another note...we have a blow dryer that runs off your car cigarette lighter. Which may not be the most useful thing in the world. I thought it was funny that they made those. We got it to warm our hands in the boat. Lol. But then again sometimes you'd be surprised what can lift your morale after a storm. Being able to do something normal helps. Wonder what else they make that runs off the car lighter?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting presslord:
OK....Does everyone get that Mr. Subtle has me on ignore? ;)


I picked up on that earlier...
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
OK....Does everyone get that Mr. Subtle has me on ignore? ;)
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509. That's it!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting presslord:


Y'all realize that I'm fighting the urge to say something really nasty about this, right?

I mean...y'all recognize what great self control I'm showing, right?


Press, you're alright, and don't forget it!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting CaneWarning:


Just let it out, no need for restraint!


deleted
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Quoting CaneWarning:


That's what I thought. I just know a guy on LOST blew himself up with some old TNT.


Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting presslord:


Y'all realize that I'm fighting the urge to say something really nasty about this, right?

I mean...y'all recognize what great self control I'm showing, right?


Just let it out, no need for restraint!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting StormJunkie:
So when do you'll start shotting each other again?

So is that like a strong man competition or something Orca?


Y'all realize that I'm fighting the urge to say something really nasty about this, right?

I mean...y'all recognize what great self control I'm showing, right?
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Quoting Weather456:
Guns are bad, just ask Dick Cheney.


No, ask the dude hunting with him......
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Cane I think I would go crazy if I did not laugh a time or two.

Last night someone mentioned that a lady said the counterclockwise spin in a hurricane causes it to go back in time and create a portal into the Bermuda Triangle and the lady was serious.

lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Credit due where deserved..

We had a few meals with these Guys..


Canadian response to Hurricane Katrina

Canada's first response to the disaster inflicted by Hurricane Katrina along the Gulf of Mexico coastline of the United States was the deployment of a Vancouver heavy urban search and rescue team, which arrived in Lafayette, Louisiana on the evening of August 31, 2005, arriving on a WestJet Airlines aircraft. Due to security and logistics issues in the disaster area surrounding New Orleans, the team started operations on September 3, saving 30 people that day. They returned to Vancouver on September 6, reportedly saving over 110 people during their deployment. It has also accepted some evacuees to stay in Canada.



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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


haha! Orca your funny.. hopefully not soon... Just eventually ammo is going to be taxed extremely.. so to skirt the taxes you just stockpile...


Deleted..
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So when do you'll start shotting each other again?

So is that like a strong man competition or something Orca?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16607
Quoting CaneWarning:


Here's a dumb question but I seriously don't know, does ammunition have an expiration date?
Quoting CaneWarning:


Here's a dumb question but I seriously don't know, does ammunition have an expiration date?


not a dumb question...
You have to keep it in dry places... some of the new ammo is built to "expire" they actually deteriorate so that you can't shoot them after periods of time..
But older ammo does not unless it is really old or left in elements...
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
Quoting presslord:
Cane...not specifically...but it probably ain't a great idea to leave it on the shelf years and years....


That's what I thought. I just know a guy on LOST blew himself up with some old TNT.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Cane...not specifically...but it probably ain't a great idea to leave it on the shelf years and years....
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Quoting Levi32:
Something I noticed that really annoys me about the GFS. Here's the 500mb for 180 hours:



Here's 240 hours:



Notice how the GFS split the energy taking the tropical cyclone northeast and leaving another piece behind in the NW Caribbean? It's been doing that the last several runs, and does on a regular basis when forecasting long-range tropical cyclones.

It creates the weakness too far east in the ridge.....it's my experience that you usually have to "average-out" the two vort maxes. The one near the Yucatan at 240 hours is weaker and therefore has "less say-so" in the actual position of the TC, so we would nudge the GFS position slightly further southwest, closer to east Florida rather than southeast of North Carolina. Not saying that this is where the storm will be, but in my experience this is how the GFS interpretations have to be dealt with in what it is seeing.


If the GFS is right on track and intensity they will 10000% delay the Space Shuttle Launch, possibily to July.

180 hours out is June 13th.
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I think this system will likely develop into something...

Please visit my blog
CYCLONE ZONE PLEASE READ

and feel free to comment or visit the site.

Thanks!!
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Quoting Weather456:
Guns are bad, just ask Dick Cheney.


You're smart AND you have a good sense of humor!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting presslord:
you seem to misunderstand...we ain't gonna be shooting each other..."Canadians" Season corresponds to Hurricane Season down here...
for sale one cheap harpoon slighly used once
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Quoting presslord:
...and don't forget the absolutely essential elements of my Ready Kit...

Mr. Glock...Mr. Browning...and several boxes of ammunition in a water proof container...


Well Press, I guess you'll be ready for those reidential looters I mentioned.........or in your case, maritime looters. Either that or your a pirate.........LOL
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


haha! Orca your funny.. hopefully not soon... Just eventually ammo is going to be taxed extremely.. so to skirt the taxes you just stockpile...


Here's a dumb question but I seriously don't know, does ammunition have an expiration date?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Guns are bad, just ask Dick Cheney.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting presslord:
you seem to misunderstand...we ain't gonna be shooting each other..."Canadians" Season corresponds to Hurricane Season down here...


I think all the Canadians leave Florida during hurricane season - its too hot for them.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Patrap:
shotting?..


Is that a new Canadian Term for Drinking?


Ohh now there is an idea.. lets drink instead :)
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I am glad I am stuck up here forever in Canada. So when do you'll start shotting each other again?



haha! Orca your funny.. hopefully not soon... Just eventually ammo is going to be taxed extremely.. so to skirt the taxes you just stockpile...
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
shotting?..


Is that a new Canadian Term for Drinking?
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Prices are indeed going up on that front. I can't buy 223's in bulk anywhere nowdays. L8R
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you seem to misunderstand...we ain't gonna be shooting each other..."Canadians" Season corresponds to Hurricane Season down here...
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I am glad I am stuck up here forever in Canada. So when do you'll start shotting each other again?



It's already happening here in Florida. No guns for me thanks. :)
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
I aint't fraid a no ghost.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


Yessir... I got mine ready... and ain't nobody gonna take them from my hands... btw we are stockpiling ammo here in Texas...


I am glad I am stuck up here forever in Canada. So when do you'll start shotting each other again? (this could be better then a Hockey Game)

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i know press them type of things can turn dreams into nightmares
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
LOL Cane... I'm not sure... don't think the value of sticks are going up..lol

pistols are great investments right now... a pistol I bought 8 months ago is now worth $350 more than the $400.00 I spent on it.. That's better than Gold or def the stock market...lol
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
Who you gonna' call?

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Cane...a stick is OK...or a baseball bat....our job is just to kill 'em...

God can sort it all out...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
as long as the other fella only has a stick


I guess I better get two sticks then.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaneWarning:
I don't own a gun - will a stick work?
as long as the other fella only has a stick
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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