Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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Quoting CaneWarning:


I agree, but I do not buy into the strength it is showing.


It is a tad insane, but it's certainly possible given the pattern over the atlantic right now. 8 days from now, showing a really well defined storm still almost stalled.. over bahamas

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Quoting CaneWarning:


To me it looks a little more to the west than the GFS.


Split the difference and you get a track right over JFV's house.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting IKE:
Check out where the 18Z NOGAPS takes 93L/Ana and seems more aggressive on this run...Link


To me it looks a little more to the west than the GFS.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Convection south of Panama being enhanced on the east side of a passing tropical wave and the Columbian low:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
573. IKE
Check out where the 18Z NOGAPS takes 93L/Ana and seems more aggressive on this run...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting winter123:
162 hours... looking like a potential major hurricane landfall in eastern cuba... this is madness!



Thats not a major hurricane. Not even close.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15923
GFS is really wanting to stir something up. I'm not buying in to it yet though. Two days will tell the tale.

GFS Model
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting antonio28:
Just log in, I saw the 12z gfs run and nows have a well defined tropical system forescast. Is the 18z out?


We are watching the 18Z run come in now. The GFS is bouncing around when it comes to the track, but its still showing development.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Homeless--

I keep a supply of food and water to last probably a week... I think if everyone would do so and not be so greedy when a storm hits things would be much better... I will admit that in the past I would hit up every depot to get "free" stuff... In the future I am going to relax that and truly try to rely on myself...


Yeah. I learned things the hard way. And you are absolutely right about the greedy. After Rita it drove me nuts hearing everyone talking about what a windfall it was. They didn't get damage but they partied on that FEMA cash card.
Ugh!! Well thats why they weren't there after Ike. And it was the ones with no damage griping about it again. It really brings out the best in people...thankfully there were enough kind people after Rita that i didn't climb a tower with a rifle! Ugh!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting Levi32:
The GFS is going biserk because of the insane poleward outflow channel it forecasts to set up. The system would basically have the core of the sub-tropical jet as its venting system.



The model is probably showing the worst-case scenario event here, but that doesn't mean it will pan out that way. I am convinced there will be trouble down there though in one way or another sometime in the next 2-4 days.


I agree, but I do not buy into the strength it is showing.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting antonio28:
Just log in, I saw the 12z gfs run and nows have a well defined tropical system forescast. Is the 18z out?


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml (i'm posting images from this)
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The GFS is going biserk because of the insane poleward outflow channel it forecasts to set up. The system would basically have the core of the sub-tropical jet as its venting system.

GFS 144 200mb


The model is probably showing the worst-case scenario event here, but that doesn't mean it will pan out that way. I am convinced there will be trouble down there though in one way or another sometime in the next 2-4 days.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Just log in, I saw the 12z gfs run and nows have a well defined tropical system forescast. Is the 18z out?
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162 hours... looking like a potential major hurricane landfall in eastern cuba... this is madness!

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Quoting StormSurgeon:
O.K., a hurricane aftermath moment. After Katrina, we lost power for three days. I'd been through it too many times so I decided to try something. I froze 4 one gallon plastic jugs with water and froze them in our chest freezer (hooked to the generator for the duration), I then placed two frozen jugs behind a good oscillating fan and it blew cooler than you might think. We can always come up with ingenious ideas to make ourselves a little more comfotable in the worst case.
sounds like a newfie air conditioner except we use blocks of ice

lol
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So basically its all about timing/strength of the trough.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
If the GFS is right cyclogenesis is going to happen sooner than we thought. Then it won't be caused by the trough split, but the low will still have to interact with it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Im sitting here hitting F5 on the gfs model page... I think i maybe like hurricanes :)

144hrs, potential big hurricane drifting NE or stalled near jamaica
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Quoting Weather456:
This thing is the SW Carib by Saturday afternoon -18Z +42 hrs.


42 hours??? That's quicker than I expected.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting IKE:


Agree...Haiti?


Flooding kills a ton of people there.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
O.K., a hurricane aftermath moment. After Katrina, we lost power for three days. I'd been through it too many times so I decided to try something. I froze 4 one gallon plastic jugs with water and froze them in our chest freezer (hooked to the generator for the duration), I then placed two frozen jugs behind a good oscillating fan and it blew cooler than you might think. We can always come up with ingenious ideas to make ourselves a little more comfotable in the worst case.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting hurricane23:


18z looks way south of southern florida


Odd track for a system in June. Looks like it heads ENE in the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:
Hello Everyone,
I don't have any problem with people owning guns. I do have a problem with people not knowing how to use them. Most of the people I know that have guns do not go to the range. Once the power goes out mine are loaded.
I have always like the sign "looters will be shot, survivors will be shot again". I saw this on the front of a house. It was painted on plywood.


I have a sign like that made - but no gun to shoot anyone with anyway! Maybe it'll scare them off anyway.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
This thing is the SW Carib by Saturday afternoon -18Z +42 hrs.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
552. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


The worst place it could go IMO.


Agree...Haiti?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
551. CaneWarning
10:23 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Heads it for eastern Cuba...the Bahamas and maybe even DR.


The worst place it could go IMO.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
550. WhereIsTheStorm
10:23 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Hello Everyone,
I don't have any problem with people owning guns. I do have a problem with people not knowing how to use them. Most of the people I know that have guns do not go to the range. Once the power goes out mine are loaded.
I have always like the sign "looters will be shot, survivors will be shot again". I saw this on the front of a house. It was painted on plywood.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 443
549. IKE
10:23 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Heads it for eastern Cuba...the Bahamas and maybe even DR.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
548. Levi32
10:23 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
Anyone notice it intializes it from the area of convergence currently over Panama. I saw the vigorous monsoon trough (indicated by monsoon southwesterlies to the south) on QuikSCAT but dicsounted it. This seems like a text book-style situation, which is a little too perfect, got me raising eye brows.

I also notice it interacts more with Nicaragua and Honduras, mountainous areas.



Yeah I mentioned it in my blog.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
547. Stormchaser2007
10:23 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Little hurricane
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15923
546. presslord
10:22 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Does it appear Cuba will have problems? They've suffered a great deal the last few years....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
545. hurricane23
10:22 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Looks to miss south Florida.


Indeed.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
544. Stormchaser2007
10:21 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
GFS 132:

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15923
543. IKE
10:19 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Quoting hurricane23:


18z looks way south of southern florida


Looks to miss south Florida.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
542. Orcasystems
10:19 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


What's that supposed to mean?


It means I responded and posted it.. thought better of it.. and deleted it :) I couldn't see any reason to try and force my reasoning on anyone else.. with out really starting a dangerous conversation.. so I backed away from it :)

It does not mean I deleted you or put you on ignore. You will see conversation where you will only see a period or something in the reply..its the same thing.. like post 524
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
541. hurricane23
10:18 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
This is the latest GFS. Link


18z looks way south of southern florida
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
540. Patrap
10:18 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Big FIsh is a Big Guy..Im sure he's not Swimming with the KOI over it..either.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
539. Cavin Rawlins
10:18 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Anyone notice it intializes it from the area of convergence currently over Panama. I saw the vigorous monsoon trough (indicated by monsoon southwesterlies to the south) on QuikSCAT but dicsounted it. This seems like a text book-style situation, which is a little too perfect, got me raising eye brows.

I also notice it interacts more with Nicaragua and Honduras, mountainous areas.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
538. SomeRandomTexan
10:17 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Oh ok! Thanks Pat! hope I didn't upset the big fish... anyways...
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
537. SomeRandomTexan
10:16 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Homeless--

I keep a supply of food and water to last probably a week... I think if everyone would do so and not be so greedy when a storm hits things would be much better... I will admit that in the past I would hit up every depot to get "free" stuff... In the future I am going to relax that and truly try to rely on myself...
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
536. Patrap
10:14 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
533.

It means he removed the comment...

Thats why we have a Modify feature.

Many should try the preview Link on the comments box..just to see How a er,Comment will appear..to others..b-4 sending it out fer the WWW to see.

Food fer thought,to chew on


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
535. NRAamy
10:14 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
naples.....maybe you should ask STORMTOP....

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
534. naplesdreamer28
10:13 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Should I start putting up the shutters now?
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 242
533. SomeRandomTexan
10:13 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


Deleted..


What's that supposed to mean?
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
532. WPBHurricane05
10:13 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
This is the latest GFS. Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
529. hurricane23
10:09 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


I think part of it is the 18Z run from yesterday


Yep...
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
528. WPBHurricane05
10:08 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


I think part of it is the 18Z run from yesterday


oops...you might be right. I didn't bother checking.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
527. Walshy
10:08 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
Statement as of 2:33 PM PDT on June 04, 2009

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 am to 9 PM PDT
Friday for the southern Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings
Canyon...

The National Weather Service in Hanford has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect from 6 am to 9 PM
PDT Friday for the southern Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings
Canyon.

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the Sierra Nevada tonight
and Friday. Heaviest amounts of precipitation will occur
Friday... with snow levels lowering to around 7500 feet. Snow
amounts of up to 5 inches are possible above 8000 feet. This will
affect Tioga Pass in Yosemite National Park.

Weather advisory means that periods of snow will cause travel
difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited
visibilities... and use caution while driving.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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