Average hurricane season foreseen by TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2009

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The ballots are all in now, and all three major seasonal forecasting groups are calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009--the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued today calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Image credit: NOAA.

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I see a Lake Huron Land Cane Image coming "Vary" soon...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
18z run is wacked better handle on 00z run later tonight
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Weather456:
I don't see how can tell if the GFS is too far east when we have no disturbance to give a relative idea.


The GFS has the low in the same spot for 2 days. It's not a very progressive solution. Looking at the steering flow the GFS give a lot more credit to the trough than the other models which feature the Bermuda high ridge holding in place a little longer with a flatter mid level trough.
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ESL by LSU
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
What will the models predict next, a hurricane over the great lakes. sheesh!!
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Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS @ 384 hours....watch out for BILL!

LOL



WARNING: THIS BLOG IS ABOUT TO GET CRAZY.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS @ 384 hours....watch out for BILL!

LOL



Good Lord!!! LOL
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Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS @ 384 hours....watch out for BILL!

LOL



ROFL
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The models bring it to near/at hurricane strength by Wensday. We don't even have a disturbance yet.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
618. IKE
18Z GFS @ 384 hours....watch out for BILL!

LOL

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Quoting Weather456:
I don't see how can tell if the GFS is too far east when we have no disturbance to give a relative idea.


See post 439. It's because the GFS splits the energy, and also isn't handling the trough split correctly, positioning the weakness in the ridge east of Florida or in the Bahamas which is too far east.

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sst's for nw carb
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Ok if the latest gfs track pans out is there any possibility the storm holds together to hit Canada as a tropical storm/hurricane? It takes it right to Nova Scotia. They don't want another Jean on them.


For one thing that is extremely far out right now, so we shouldn't even try to guess here. However I will say that if this storm recurves up in that direction, it would convert to an extratropical system well before getting there.
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Im surprised the models would show an eye, eyewall tropical characteristics 120 hours out.
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Quoting bballerf50:
Who has a good link for current THCP maps?


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
I don't see how can tell if the GFS is too far east when we have no disturbance to give a relative idea.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Drakoen:
Another vigorous run on the GFS. The difference with this system is that it is stronger and has more depth as well as more expansive that allow for more poleward movement. I still think it's too far east but the conditions aloft and the TCHP could allow for significant development. The interaction with Latin America will also be key considering that would halt cyclogenesis.


And potentially influence the track by keeping the system weaker as it first starts to move north.
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Ok if the latest gfs track pans out is there any possibility the storm holds together to hit Canada as a tropical storm/hurricane? It takes it right to Nova Scotia. They don't want another Jean on them.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
We should see the disturbance move in the SW Caribbean by late tomorrow night or early Saturday.



And than the "closed low" debate will begin. Last year was a real killer, especially Dolly and Fay.
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Another vigorous run on the GFS. The difference with this system is that it is stronger and has more depth as well as more expansive that allow for more poleward movement. I still think it's too far east but the conditions aloft and the TCHP could allow for significant development. The interaction with Latin America will also be key considering that would halt cyclogenesis.
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I think that we have consensus in the blog, developments seems to be more likely right now than speculate with the track. I think anyone from Fla, Cuba, Jamica, the caymans, and the bahamas should monitor the progres of this forescast. I dont want to mention Haiti God bless them.
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Who has a good link for current THCP maps?
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I have to say this...

If tropical systems were made out of wishes and projected hopes, we would have a cat 5 every single week.

Lets wait and see what develops, folks.
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Not I...sleep much mo a Luxury in early June than in August here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
so whos stayin up for the midnight model run

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
602. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


Uncertain, but the GFS is too far east. Any system will likely move north into western Cuba, or pull an Alberto path. It's best to wait until we have a developing system to speculate on track though.


I agree, it's too far east.
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Quoting Weather456:
Where will it go comes after when it is formed

It is the difference between it developing near 17N-85W or 15N-75W.


I don't really see it developing east of 78w. The pattern seems to be setting up more for the far west Caribbean.
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We should see the disturbance move in the SW Caribbean by late tomorrow night or early Saturday.

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Winter123: One thing to note is that the system the GFS is projecting looks more like a strong TS / weak Cat 1. It isn't spun tightly enough (look at the isobars... each contour line is 2mb). Based on just the isobars, we are looking at a 990-1000mb system, which is a tropical storm, and a little bit before a hurricane.

Looks more like a rainmaker, with some wind.
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Quoting Levi32:


No you're not seeing things. That's not too surprising really, but it does make things look more favorable for a developing system in that area. I would note that the GFS has been consistently positioning the 200mb high south of the surface low, and increasing the distance between them as the low moves north, implying that the storm would experience increased shear in the Bahamas, all assuming the GFS is correct about everything.


I thought I saw an anti-cyc develop over it. I tend to believe it would be more to the west of what the GFS is showing. It certainly has my attention. We'll have to see if the models show it on the next run. I do think this may be Ana.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Where will it go comes after when it is formed

It is the difference between it developing near 17N-85W or 15N-75W.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I agree CW, and I will say that watching multiple runs at this stage can at least give hints of strength and movement, but only on a very broad scale.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
Quoting CaneWarning:
It almost looks like an anticyclone could form in the area over the storm. Am I seeing things?


No you're not seeing things. That's not too surprising really, but it does make things look more favorable for a developing system in that area. I would note that the GFS has been consistently positioning the 200mb high south of the surface low, and increasing the distance between them as the low moves north, implying that the storm would experience increased shear in the Bahamas, all assuming the GFS is correct about everything.
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The main steering feature seems to an upper trough over the Eastern CONUS and that is the deciding factor on where the potential storm will go, but I'm not concern with track right now, just the intial genesis since the former with change more dramatic than the latter.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting StormJunkie:
It's best to wait until we have a developing system to speculate on track though.

Very true Levi...I think the only thing the models can help determine right now is the level of potential for genesis. Track and strength on these runs means nothing until there is something.


It's fun to watch though!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
It's best to wait until we have a developing system to speculate on track though.

Very true Levi...I think the only thing the models can help determine right now is the level of potential for genesis. Track and strength on these runs means nothing until there is something.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
Quoting IKE:


He's out boarding up his windows as we type.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he is getting the flashlights and batteries ready as we type

lol


So that's where he disappeared to.
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Quoting IKE:
Check out where the 18Z NOGAPS takes 93L/Ana and seems more aggressive on this run...Link


Curious indeed, these models are oscillating more than ENSO.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah. I learned things the hard way. And you are absolutely right about the greedy. After Rita it drove me nuts hearing everyone talking about what a windfall it was. They didn't get damage but they partied on that FEMA cash card.
Ugh!! Well thats why they weren't there after Ike. And it was the ones with no damage griping about it again. It really brings out the best in people...thankfully there were enough kind people after Rita that i didn't climb a tower with a rifle! Ugh!


haha! no kidding... I didn't take the FEMA money either time...Well I guess they only offered it once..
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
It almost looks like an anticyclone could form in the area over the storm. Am I seeing things?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Split the difference and you get a track right over JFV's house.
he is getting the flashlights and batteries ready as we type

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting IKE:


It's over western Cuba.

I think a system developing is becoming more likely...the track?


I think the track over western Cuba makes more sense than a track to the east of Florida just based on history.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Well the wind shear forecast seems to comply with the GFS solution with a poleward outflow jet and low shear developing over the system. I was attempting to find some inconsistency but the only thing I can find is interaction with central America and/or Cuba. The latter factor for those in the Bahamas, East Fl.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting IKE:


It's over western Cuba.

I think a system developing is becoming more likely...the track?


Uncertain, but the GFS is too far east. Any system will likely move north into western Cuba, or pull an Alberto path. It's best to wait until we have a developing system to speculate on track though.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sounds like a newfie air conditioner except we use blocks of ice

lol


Ha, you've been there! Hope I don't have to do it ever again. Running the freezer on generator makes life tolerable in that situation, thankfully.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Split the difference and you get a track right over JFV's house.


Too funny.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
581. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Split the difference and you get a track right over JFV's house.


He's out boarding up his windows as we type.
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I am waiting for something to start pulling N out of this before I put too much stock in anything...Although I must admit the general model support is good at this point.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
Quoting IKE:
Check out where the 18Z NOGAPS takes 93L/Ana and seems more aggressive on this run...Link


Yeah but the formation occurs at 96 hours not 48...implying that the NOGAPS thinks the trough split and/or the tropical wave currently in the CATL will have more to do with cyclogenesis.
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578. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


To me it looks a little more to the west than the GFS.


It's over western Cuba.

I think a system developing is becoming more likely...the track?
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I agree, but I do not buy into the strength it is showing.


It is a tad insane, but it's certainly possible given the pattern over the atlantic right now. 8 days from now, showing a really well defined storm still almost stalled.. over bahamas

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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