Average hurricane season foreseen by CSU, NOAA, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on June 02, 2009

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A near-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2009, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 88% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is a step down from their April forecast, which called for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a near-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an average risk of a major hurricane.

The forecasters cited several reasons for an average season:

1) Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic are quite cool. In fact, these SST anomalies are at their coolest level since July 1994. Cooler-than-normal waters provide less heat energy for developing hurricanes. In addition, an anomalously cool tropical Atlantic is typically associated with higher sea level pressure values and stronger-than-normal trade winds, indicating a more stable atmosphere with increased levels of vertical wind shear detrimental for hurricanes. Substantial cooling began in November 2008 (Figure 1), primarily due to a stronger than average Bermuda-Azores High that drove strong trade winds. These strong winds increased the mixing of cool waters to the surface from below, and caused increased evaporational cooling.

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño conditions bring higher wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. The CSU team expects the current neutral conditions may transition to El Niño conditions (70% chance) by this year's hurricane season. I discussed the possibility of a El Niño conditions developing this year in a blog posted Friday.


Figure 1. Change in Sea Surface Temperature anomaly between November 2008 and 2009. Most of the Atlantic has cooled significantly, relative to normal, over the past 7 months. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to slightly warm ENSO conditions, slightly below-average tropical Atlantic SSTs, and above-average far North Atlantic SSTs during April-May. Those five years were 2002, which featured Hurricane Lili that hit Louisiana as a Category 1 storm; 2001, featuring Category 4 storms Michelle, which hit Cuba, and Iris, which hit Belize; 1965, which had Category 3 Betsy that hit New Orleans; 1960, which had two Category 5 hurricanes, Ethyl and Donna; and 1959, which had Category 3 Hurricane Gracie, which hit South Carolina. The mean activity for these five years was 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2009 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team have historically offered a skill of 20 - 30% higher than a "no-skill" forecast using climatology (Figure 2). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. This year's June forecast uses the same formula as last year's June forecast, which did quite well predicting the 2008 hurricane season (prediction: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes; observed: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes). An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.44 to 0.58 for their June forecasts, which is respectable.


Figure 2. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed at Colorado State University (CSU) by Dr. Bill Gray's team (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR, colored lines). The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

NOAA's 2009 hurricane season forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), issued its 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 21. NOAA anticipates that an average season it most likely, giving a 50% chance of a near-normal season, 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. They give a 70% chance that there will be 9 - 14 named storms, 4 - 7 hurricanes, 1 - 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the 65% - 130% of normal range. The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

2) There will either be an El Niño event or neutral conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. An El Niño event should act to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. However, our skill at predicting an Niño in late May/early June is poor, so there is high uncertainty about how active the coming hurricane season will be.

3) Cooler-than-average SSTs are currently present in the eastern tropical Atlantic. These cool SSTs are forecast to persist through into August-September-October (ASO). ASO SSTs in the eastern tropical Atlantic have not been below average since 1997. Cooler SSTs in that region are typically associated with a reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity.

Thus, they expect that even though we are in an active hurricane period, the presence of an El Niño or cool SSTs in the eastern Atlantic could easily suppress activity, making a near-average season the most likely possibility. They note that two promising computer models, the NOAA CFS model and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Global Climate Model System 3, both forecast the possibility of a below-average hurricane season.

2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued June 4 calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Air France crash
The Air France Flight 447 A330 aircraft that disappeared over the mid-Atlantic Ocean yesterday definitely crossed through a thunderstorm complex near the Equator, according to a detailed meteorological analysis by Tim Vasquez. He concludes that "the A330 would have been flying through significant turbulence and thunderstorm activity for about 75 miles (125 km), lasting about 12 minutes of flight time" but that "complexes identical to this one have probably been crossed hundreds of times over the years by other flights without serious incident". See also the excellent CIMSS satellite blog for more images and analysis of the weather during the flight.

Invest 92
NHC is tracking a storm near the Azores Islands (Invest 92L) that is probably the remnants of the core of an extratropical cyclone that closed off some warm air at the center. The system has developed some heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, making this a hybrid storm. However, with ocean temperatures near 62°F (16°C), this storm has little chance of becoming a named subtropical storm.

Jeff Masters

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Study: Warming to worsen hurricane damage in Texas
Posted 6/1/2009 5:38 PM

By Juan A. Lozano, Associated Press Writer


The study projected that rising sea levels and more intense hurricanes, due to global warming, will increase structural damage to homes and buildings from a major hurricane in Corpus Christi by 60% to 100% in about 20 years and by more than 250% by the 2080s.

Such a catastrophic storm surge event would translate into projected damage increases of between $100 million to $250 million in around 20 years and of between $250 million and more than $1 billion by the 2080s.

But Irish said such potential damage could happen anywhere along the Texas Gulf Coast and even the rest of the U.S. Gulf Coast due to global warming, in which carbon dioxide and other gases added to the air by industrial and other activities have been blamed for rising global temperatures. This has increased worries about possible major changes in weather and climate.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Entergy says restoring power after hurricanes still will take time

05:24 PM CDT on Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Maya Rodriguez / Eyewitness News

WESTWEGO, La. ― In the days following Hurricanes Gustav and Ike last September, Entergy faced more than a half-billion dollars in damage to its electrical infrastructure. On Tuesday, company officials said they are prepared for the new hurricane season, but warned customers should not have unrealistic expectations, for when power will be restored after a storm.

Video: Watch the Story

"We will never be able to get the lights on as fast as our customers want, but I think communication is the key," said Rod West, Entergy New Orleans president and CEO.

The message from Entergy officials: they are ready for this year's hurricane season, after spending millions on upgrades since last year.

"We're talking about tens of millions of dollars in new capacity of lines, extending into the New Orleans metropolitan area," said Randy Helmick, transmission and Entergy storm boss.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
610. 7544
hay all looks like our main area foto watch will be around fla this week stay tuned Link
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609. IKE
Quoting Levi32:
The low moving along the north gulf coast right now is not going to be the problem.

The trough-split and remnant low left behind in 3-4 days is going to be the problem.


That's what I see on the 12Z GFS...what's left behind over the upcoming weekend.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Oil Companies Prepared Despite Mild Hurricane Outlook


The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season officially began Monday and runs through Nov. 30. According to Reuters, experts predict it will be a quieter season than last, when 16 tropical storms and hurricanes formed in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.


But, Shell, the largest natural gas producer and second largest oil producer in the Gulf region, isn’t betting on the forecast. "We prepare for the worst and hope for the best," said Frank Glaviano, vice president of Shell's U.S. offshore operations. The Gulf accounts for 15 percent of U.S.-produced natural gas and 25 percent of domestic crude oil output, according to Reuters.

Analysts told Reuters the oil industry learned vital lessons since Hurricanes Ivan in 2004, Katrina and Rita in 2005, and Gustav and Ike in 2008. And a global recession has relieved pressure on what for much of 2008 was a drum-tight U.S. oil and refined product distribution system with virtually no extra supply, according to the Reuters report.
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607. IKE
Shear has dropped in the northern GOM, but there's very little 850mb vorticity...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
606. Skyepony (Mod)
Jeffs~ Gravity wave is formed where the thunderstorm rises up & punctures the tropopause. The ground feel wind. Up high it is pretty severe turbulance, which can tear up a plan. What is the plots on the debri field? Would be interesting to see if it was in the ITCZ there at the time.

The 00:00 UTC rawinsonde report from Fernando de Noronha, Brazil (below) indicated that the tropical tropopause level was probably located near the 100 hPa pressure level (at a height of 16,649 meters, or 54,623 feet), where the minimum temperature was -77.7º C. The presence of cloud top IR brightness temperatures colder than -80º C on the METEOSAT-9 imagery suggests that many of the strongest thunderstorm updrafts were penetrating the tropopause — and such overshooting thunderstorm updrafts have been known to initiate strong gravity waves aloft that have generated moderate to severe turbulence.
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605. beell
A gravity wave really only affects the ground or near-ground stuff. the Air France flight was well above that, at FL350. (35,000 ft)

May want to check that one out a bit Jeff. I do not claim total understanding, but cloud top gravity waves above tropical convection are somewhat common. Not sure about the amplitude or height from the top to the bottom of the wave-but read somewhere it is on the order of 200 meters or so. (??)

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sea level pressures are above average over the tropical atlantic along with some of the coolest sst readings ive seen in a while.
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The low moving along the north gulf coast right now is not going to be the problem.

The trough-split and remnant low left behind in 3-4 days is going to be the problem.
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Current GOM WV loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Agree with you for the most part but, there is a surface low analyzed on the most recent surface chart.



it actually been on the maps for about 24hrs now.....the main feature,the one responsible for all most all the wx along the gulf coast is a ULL SW of LA,however there is a weak surface low that will be moving towards the Panhandle over the next24hrs....
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2009060306 GFS analysis and forecast cyclone phase evolution
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
There is a surface low..
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
Quoting IKE:


I think most of us on here understand that.

My question...why are so many of the tropical Atlantic storm #'s for 2009 predicated on an El Nino developing, which is based on long-range models?


I think people get a little too in love with the ENSO for predicting hurricane seasons. We can't forget that 2004 was a weak El Nino season, and there are so many other factors that can come into play during the season. Further more, as many have pointed out, there is usually a lag, so the current El Nino event that is building right now may not affect the hurricane season greatly until August or so.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


latest tropical atl. surface anal.


The ITCZ concerns me, Its below were it should be. That means storms will have a harder time 're'-curving (If your an oldey you'll remember the 're' curving argument) out into the Atlantic and will be able to trek into the Caribbean.
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surface lows are just that..surface low.. but its not a warm core surface low... just a weak area of low presure...it will do pretty much as 456 has said! If this low was forming in the southern GOM...it may have time to develop some subtropical characteristics...but its upper level support would remain cold core. Another word..weak area of low pressure thats not tropical..will move NE and merge with a frontal boundry..pressures in the NE GOM will remain kinda low with low pressures in the mid-upper levels from our cold core low!
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GOM IR Image Loop



NexSat GOM Sector, Vis Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Quoting IKE:


I think most of us on here understand that.

My question...why are so many of the tropical Atlantic storm #'s for 2009 predicated on an El Nino developing, which is based on long-range models?


Good question!
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latest tropical atl. surface anal.
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that area south of mex. has alot of TC potential,IMO...
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latest surface
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Quoting scottsvb:
There is nothing inline (Tropically speaking) that will form in the next 3-5 days... GOM system is and will be in the mid and upper levels...no organized low pressure...this will be simular to mid-Mays weather... alot of Heavy rain in parts of florida. After 5 days.. dont read anything the models show.. dont even bother unless you want to get a laugh!


Agree with you for the most part but, there is a surface low analyzed on the most recent surface chart.
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589. IKE
Quoting scottsvb:
There is nothing inline (Tropically speaking) that will form in the next 3-5 days... GOM system is and will be in the mid and upper levels...no organized low pressure...this will be simular to mid-Mays weather... alot of Heavy rain in parts of florida. After 5 days.. dont read anything the models show.. dont even bother unless you want to get a laugh!


I think most of us on here understand that.

My question...why are so many of the tropical Atlantic storm #'s for 2009 predicated on an El Nino developing, which is based on long-range models?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting scottsvb:
There is nothing inline (Tropically speaking) that will form in the next 3-5 days... GOM system is and will be in the mid and upper levels...no organized low pressure...this will be simular to mid-Mays weather... alot of Heavy rain in parts of florida. After 5 days.. dont read anything the models show.. dont even bother unless you want to get a laugh!


You guys are just taking all the fun out of this blog,looking out beyond 120hrs.
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Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit from 12:30 eastern time
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Quoting scottsvb:
There is nothing inline (Tropically speaking) that will form in the next 3-5 days... GOM system is and will be in the mid and upper levels...no organized low pressure...this will be simular to mid-Mays weather... alot of Heavy rain in parts of florida. After 5 days.. dont read anything the models show.. dont even bother unless you want to get a laugh!

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Tropical Waves, no 4 and 5

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Quoting scottsvb:
Anything more than 3 days out that is not developed and has no other model support is pretty much not going to happen..less than 20%. For everyone to be looking @ systems more than 5 days out is like reading a farmers alnamac...less than 5%.


I could not have said it better myself,scott!!!,I always start off by looking at shear maps and surface obs...
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Goodmorning Scott...
In defense of the "way out of wac" farmers almanac I have to say it nailed down the date exactly on IKE...lol! but I guess that is where the 5% chance comes in...lol!

good to see you on man.
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
Morning? Boy you barely got that in LOL! Coastal Forecast is calling for 2-4 today and tomorrow

lol, yeah sorry just woke up...long night at the Hang-out in Gulf Shores....sweet yeah i just checked the buoy's and there trying to start something....maybe this late afternoon..
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There is nothing inline (Tropically speaking) that will form in the next 3-5 days... GOM system is and will be in the mid and upper levels...no organized low pressure...this will be simular to mid-Mays weather... alot of Heavy rain in parts of florida. After 5 days.. dont read anything the models show.. dont even bother unless you want to get a laugh!
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
seems that the fronts have been stronger and coming down further this year than normal...


IMO, this is about normal for this time of year. The fronts really aren't all that strong, since by the time they get down here, they aren't much more than glorified dry lines. They are just coming down this far because the low pressure systems they are anchored to are spun up enough to swing them down this far.
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Anything more than 3 days out that is not developed and has no other model support is pretty much not going to happen..less than 20%. For everyone to be looking @ systems more than 5 days out is like reading a farmers alnamac...less than 5%.
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Quoting Nolehead:
morning everyone...well looks like La-Fl is going to get another soaker from that GOM blob...maybe it will have enough time to at least spark a small swell up here...


Morning? Boy you barely got that in LOL! Coastal Forecast is calling for 2-4 today and tomorrow.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3010
Quoting Skyepony:
CIMSS has some sat stuff of the Air France. ITCZ was exploding -70 . They think there may have been a strong gravity wave.

A gravity wave really only affects the ground or near-ground stuff. the Air France flight was well above that, at FL350. (35,000 ft)

I'm also hearing some stuff up here at work that it was an explosion of some kind... which would also make some sense, considering debris was scattered over a 35 mile long swath. If an aircraft breaks up at FL350, it will be spread over a huge area. If it doesn't break up until impact, it will be confined to a relatively small area, regardless of the speed.
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576. Skyepony (Mod)
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Nice update Dr M and wonderful information by the posters here thanks all.
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morning everyone...well looks like La-Fl is going to get another soaker from that GOM blob...maybe it will have enough time to at least spark a small swell up here...
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573. IKE
Quoting stillwaiting:



could happen...in time,now the front is supposed to stall now over North FL...it will be a wet week-end in FL..


I see the 12Z GFS keeps a lot of moisture/rain in the eastern gulf-states. A change from prior runs and more in line with the 6-10 and 8-14 day extended outlooks for precip.

Also shows a low in the western/NW Caribbean just like the 6Z GFS run.
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572. Skyepony (Mod)
CIMSS has some sat stuff of the Air France. ITCZ was exploding -70+. They think there may have been a strong gravity wave.
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seems that the fronts have been stronger and coming down further this year than normal...
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
man there is a lot of unstable air in the GOM... if shear keeps relexing something could form given the variable of time



could happen...in time,now the front is supposed to stall now over North FL...it will be a wet week-end in FL..
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Tropical Update
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Quoting potteryX:
Also of interest, is the very low SAL content, and the relatively moist air over most of the equqtorial and tropical Atlantic.
No waves in sight, but it would be fun to watch one now, to see what it does in the prevailing conditions.


The pattern calls for fewer but stronger dust outbreaks.

June Outlook
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566. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL, Ike has never been afraid to stick his neck anywhere :) Mind you. I keep forgetting he is so old and frail :)


Old and frail....lol.....not
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
565. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:



Ike are you ready to stick your 51 year old neck and say you think there will be a weak T.D. or T.S. out there? :)


Where? In the Yucatan channel like the 6Z GFS is showing?

I'm gonna look at the 12Z GFS now. I bet it's not there. The moisture is, but no low.

I'll take a look now:)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting PcolaDan:
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ650-655-031545-
/O.NEW.KMOB.MA.W.0092.090603T1409Z-090603T1545Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
909 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING LILLIAN BRIDGE...EAST BAY...ADMIRAL FETTERMAN REEF...
DAVID BOGAN REEF...GARCON POINT BRIDGE...J BROWN LIBERTY SHIP
REEF...NAVARRE BEACH...OKALOOSA MILLENNIUM REEF...ORISKANY REEF...
PENSACOLA BAY BRIDGE...PENSACOLA BEACH PIER...PENSACOLA PASS AND
RUSSIAN FREIGHTER REEF...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 907 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS FROM PENSACOLA BAY
BRIDGE TO DAVID BOGAN REEF...MOVING EAST AT 5 KNOTS.

* THESE WATERSPOUTS WILL BE NEAR
OVER PENSACOLA BEACH PIER BY 955 AM CDT
3 NM SOUTH OF GARCON POINT BRIDGE BY 1000 AM CDT
OVER RUSSIAN FREIGHTER REEF BY 1020 AM CDT
3 NM NORTHWEST OF ADMIRAL FETTERMAN REEF...5 NM SOUTH OF EAST BAY
AND 8 NM WEST OF NAVARRE BEACH BY 1045 AM CDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3045 8686 3037 8713 3042 8679 3006 8680
2996 8753 3038 8744 3044 8738 3047 8741
3047 8736 3043 8734 3040 8741 3030 8745
3037 8727 3037 8732 3037 8733 3042 8720
3049 8715 3045 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 1408Z 270DEG 4KT 3038 8716 3009 8739


Sounds like it's time to turn on piercam.net! :)
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


I'm wanting to think that I have seen her on during the past month but don't hold me to it...



Hope she is ok , she used to be on here constantly .
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.