Hurricane season begins today; normal June activity expected

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on June 01, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

Hurricane season is upon us, and it's time to take a look at the prevailing conditions and 2-week forecast for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fourteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include last year's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes, 1851 - 2007.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are close to average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). These temperatures are some of the coolest we've seen since 1995, when the current active hurricane period began. This year's cool SSTs should prevent a repeat of the unforgettable Hurricane Season of 2005, which had the highest SSTs on record in the tropical Atlantic. Note also that SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America are quite a bit above average, signaling the possible start of an El Niño episode. As I discussed in Friday's post, odds are increasing for a weak El Niño to form in time for hurricane season, and this should cut down on the number and intensity of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes this year. However, if an El Niño is developing, it shouldn't start affecting Atlantic hurricane activity until August.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 26 - 28°C in these regions, which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979, which coincidentally will be the name given to this year's first storm.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for June 1, 2009. SSTs were near average over the tropical Atlantic. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
It's not just the SSTs that are important for hurricanes, it's also the total amount of heat in the ocean to a depth of about 150 meters. Hurricanes stir up water from down deep due to their high winds, so a shallow layer of warm water isn't as beneficial to a hurricane as a deep one. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, Figure 3) is a measure of this total heat content. A high TCHP over 80 is very beneficial to rapid intensification. As we can see, the heat energy available in the tropical Atlantic has declined considerably since 2005, when the highest SSTs ever measured in the tropical Atlantic occurred. TCHP this year is similar to last year's levels, which were high enough to support five major hurricanes.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for May 31 2005 (top), May 31 of last year (middle) and May 30 2009 (bottom). TCHP is a measure of the total heat energy available in the ocean. Record high values of TCHP were observed in 2005. TCHP this year is much lower, and similar to last year. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Tropical Depression One formed. The low shear "hole" has dipped down into the northern Gulf of Mexico a few times. Disturbance 90L, which almost developed into a tropical storm before it came ashore in Mississippi/Alabama on May 23, took advantage of one of these low-shear areas.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days. This means that the waters offshore of the Carolinas are the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the northern Gulf of Mexico will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The latest 16-day forecast by the GFS model (Figure 4) predicts that the subtropical jet will weaken and retreat northwards by the middle of June, creating low-shear conditions over the Caribbean. This is a typical occurrence for mid-June, and we need to start watching the Western Caribbean for tropical storm formation by the middle of the month.


Figure 4. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2009 run of the GFS model for June 1 (left panel) and June 17 (right panel). Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina under low shear, making this area the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. By June 17, the subtropical jet is expected to weaken and move northwards, leaving the Caribbean under low shear, and favoring that region for tropical storm formation. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why 2007's Subtropical Storm Andrea never became a tropical storm. Dr. Amato Evan of the University of Wisconsin will issue his dust forecast for the coming hurricane season later this week, and I'll be discussing his forecast in an upcoming post.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has been typical for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3-5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the typical June pattern, bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast capable of recurving any June storms that might form. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 36% chance of a named storm occurring in the first half of June. The current conditions in the atmosphere and ocean are near average, so expect about a 1/3 chance of a named storm between now and June 15. The computer models are currently not forecasting development of any tropical storms over the next seven days.

I'll have an update Tuesday afternoon, when I'll discuss the Colorado State University June Atlantic Hurricane season forecast by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray, which will be issued Tuesday morning.

My next analysis and 2-week outlook for hurricane season is scheduled for June 13.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 794 - 744

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

no trolls this morning...I think he means that if everything stays slow a troll could appear in the next 30 days
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
And i hope
that "Severe troll warning statement" wasn't directed towards me, because if asking a question is really such a crime on this blog I might as well go somewhere else for my tropical needs.

nonono, not at all. asking that is a legit question. I was actually responding to a pair of posts several below yours, by CaneWarning and WPBHurricane05.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting IKE:
I don't care how many systems CSU forecasts. Plus, it's not really fair that they can adjust numbers after the season starts.


Let's see how they've done in June:

2008: 15-8-4 - real total of 16-8-5.
2007: 17-9-5 - real total of 15-6-2.
2006: 17-9-5 - real total of 10-5-2.
2005: 15-8-4 - real total of 28-15-7.
2004: 14-8-3 - real total of 15-9-6.
2003: 14-8-3 - real total of 16-7-3.
2002: 11-6-2 - real total of 12-4-2.
2001: 12-7-3 - real total of 15-9-4.
2000: 12-8-4 - real total of 14-8-3.
1999: 14-9-4 - real total of 12-8-5.

'Course, with 2005 nobody could of predicted that with any real certainty. They horribly dropped the ball in '06 but the rest haven't been *too* far out.

But yes, any forecasts after June is just cheating!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
791. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Ummm ok... All I asked for was the missing requirement. The info on the WU tropical page
is usually always in sustained winds. And i hope
that "Severe troll warning statement" wasn't directed towards me, because if asking a question is really such a crime on this blog I might as well go somewhere else for my tropical needs.


I haven't seen any comments/posts this morning on here by "trolls".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
NHC did a great job last year, they were right on the money...


They really did! There were times I doubted them but again and again I was proven wrong!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ummm ok... All I asked for was the missing requirement. The info on the WU tropical page
is usually always in sustained winds. And i hope
that "Severe troll warning statement" wasn't directed towards me, because if asking a question is really such a crime on this blog I might as well go somewhere else for my tropical needs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
788. IKE
Quoting IKE:


A few breezy rain showers?

Here's a PWS in Niceville,FL. They had 1.27 inches of rain on Friday, May 22nd.

They had 1.70 inches of rain on Saturday, May 23rd.


Plus, the Sunday after that low moved inland I had......Precipitation: 3.67in

In a feeder band.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
06.02.2009 1402 UTC
SEVERE TROLL WATCH
THE WEATHERUNDERGROUND BLOG WATCH SERVICE IS NOW ISSUING A SEVERE TROLL WATCH FOR THE WEATHERUNDERGROUND BLOG SYSTEM. DUE TO A LACK OF NOTABLE TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND ENTIRELY TOO MUCH FREE TIME, THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED REPORTS OF TROLLING ON THE BLOGS. PLEASE BE AWARE, AND WHEN IN DOUBT, REMEMBER...

DONT FEED THE TROLLS!

FORECASTER JEFFS713
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Morning all

I'm sure some folks who got flooded in FL have a name for that low. Weather is weather it does not need names or designations.

Good to see you sg03, and you are correct, the Florida flooding system may not have had a name, but it still impacted so many so seriously...On that note, Portlight is in the process of putting a team together to go down and assist with clean up. Pulling sheet rock, carpet, etc, out of homes. As of now, it looks like we will be in the area beginning June 12. If anyone would like to volunteer or donate to help support this effort; please learn more here!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I think the NHC is bored...already lookin at stuff outside the tropics...I mean, NE of the Azores...gimme a break.


that storm maybe had a warm core for 12hrs or so,I even doubt that...extra-tropical storm,if it was sept or oct. I'd say possibly STS or TS,the waters are waaaay to cool in that area,IMO....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
784. beell
Sometimes an invest is called in the N ATL due to the Navy having "assets" in the area-all it takes...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16213
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY HURRICANE FORECAST TEAM LOWERS FORECAST, NOW ANTICIPATES SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE SEASON IN 2009


11-5-2. Thought they would go to that.

Think it's actually a little low, gone a little too far.

But we'll only know come November 30th.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
782. IKE
I don't care how many systems CSU forecasts. Plus, it's not really fair that they can adjust numbers after the season starts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is something interesting from their report:

"The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 48 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach. The hurricane forecast team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on various portions of the U.S. coast:

- A 28 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent).

- A 28 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).

New with this forecast are landfall probabilities for the Caribbean and Central America. This season, the forecast team expects a 39 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean, which is slightly lower than the long-term average of 42 percent.

Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
780. IKE
Quoting 69Viking:
Good morning everyone! Wow, it's bash the NHC morning I see! Anybody that thinks 90L should have been named is crazy. In the Panhandle of Florida we were on it's east side and it was nothing but a few breezy rain showers on Saturday. I was all worried my Memorial Day boating weekend was going to get messed up, boy was I wrong! The weather on Sunday and Monday turned out nice. Mostly sunny with a LIGHT breeze and then some scattered LATE afternoon thunderstorms like we see just about everyday during the summertime. No way 90L was anything but a weak low when it came ashore. Seas came up maybe 1', any weak tropical storm easily brings the water up 2-4 feet. I've lived here since 1992 and seen many a tropical storms and 90L was not even close!


A few breezy rain showers?

Here's a PWS in Niceville,FL. They had 1.27 inches of rain on Friday, May 22nd.

They had 1.70 inches of rain on Saturday, May 23rd.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I've never seen an invest with 50 mph winds before... I thought when an invest has that hit
those winds and all the other requirements for upgrade, it was upgraded. What requirement is it missing?

39+ mph SUSTAINED winds. Gusts don't count. Everything I have seen so far says that the winds were not sustained that high over water. Some storms may have had higher gusts, but you can also get higher gusts (and sometimes short-term sustained) from regular thunderstorm cells, too.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY HURRICANE FORECAST TEAM LOWERS FORECAST, NOW ANTICIPATES SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE SEASON IN 2009


Conditions on this blog will probably go downhill.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY HURRICANE FORECAST TEAM LOWERS FORECAST, NOW ANTICIPATES SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE SEASON IN 2009


If that turns out to be true, the blog will kills itself.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
NHC did a great job last year, they were right on the money...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 69Viking:
Good morning everyone! Wow, it's bash the NHC morning I see! Anybody that thinks 90L should have been named is crazy. In the Panhandle of Florida we were on it's east side and it was nothing but a few breezy rain showers on Saturday. I was all worried my Memorial Day boating weekend was going to get messed up, boy was I wrong! The weather on Sunday and Monday turned out nice. Mostly sunny with a LIGHT breeze and then some scattered LATE afternoon thunderstorms like we see just about everyday during the summertime. No way 90L was anything but a weak low when it came ashore. Seas came up maybe 1', any weak tropical storm easily brings the water up 2-4 feet. I've lived here since 1992 and seen many a tropical storms and 90L was not even close!


Thanks for the "firsthand" report (same report here in the Big Bend)....Gotta go get some work done...Be back this afternoon (to see if the blob in the GOM is gone yet...Lol)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8785
Good morning everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning everyone! Wow, it's bash the NHC morning I see! Anybody that thinks 90L should have been named is crazy. In the Panhandle of Florida we were on it's east side and it was nothing but a few breezy rain showers on Saturday. I was all worried my Memorial Day boating weekend was going to get messed up, boy was I wrong! The weather on Sunday and Monday turned out nice. Mostly sunny with a LIGHT breeze and then some scattered LATE afternoon thunderstorms like we see just about everyday during the summertime. No way 90L was anything but a weak low when it came ashore. Seas came up maybe 1', any weak tropical storm easily brings the water up 2-4 feet. I've lived here since 1992 and seen many a tropical storms and 90L was not even close!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
771. beell
Most of the ship reports I saw from Sailwx.com (if you believe them) were under 20C
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16213
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Update


Thanks 456, this explained the current scenario with 92 quite well.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
92L

img



could 92L be what was TD 1???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
that did not stop Vince or Epsilon and they where overe 20c of water and they where both hurricanes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
767. beell
756. jeffs713 1:27 PM GMT on June 02, 2009

The waters right now off the Azores aren't even 20C.

Amen!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16213
92L

img
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
764. IKE
Quoting StormW:
What time frame are the models hinting at for GOMEX action?


Within 48 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've never seen an invest with 50 mph winds before... I thought when an invest has that hit
those winds and all the other requirements for upgrade, it was upgraded. What requirement is it missing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
762. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Some of you folks need to relax on here, you will have plenty to track in the next few months, you are guranteed that the models will spit out a major cane somewhere along the line if nothing else and Ike will post these so enjoy the season. I'm sure some folks who got flooded in FL have a name for that low. Weather is weather it does not need names or designations.


Exactly...whether it has a name or not.

Thanks for mentioning me:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
757:yea w/named it ,it begins w/mother,lol.....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
I'm sure the NHC knows their stuff. (God knows they know a lot more than I do) But they do make mistakes... I think...lol Anyway I saw some man from the NHC on tv last night talking about last years U.S. landfalling storms beginning with Faye,Gustav,Hanna, and ending with Ike. Now I can see why Edouard didn't get a mention. LOL (I didn't even lose electricity.) But didn't Dolly make landfall in south Texas??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL,wow, are we impatient this year. Sounds like people think we should be up to the letter "D" by now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Update
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some of you folks need to relax on here, you will have plenty to track in the next few months, you are guranteed that the models will spit out a major cane somewhere along the line if nothing else and Ike will post these so enjoy the season. I'm sure some folks who got flooded in FL have a name for that low. Weather is weather it does not need names or designations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
If the GFS were to be correct, we would have another "Arthur" for Mexico next week or so lol..

The NHC makes mistakes like we all do, they made a mistake with 90L, I think they will be smarter with this one, lets not forget Vince in 2005, formed in waters cool as the waters where 92L is, and Vince I believe formed in the same exact spot!

Actually, Vince formed very late in the season, and Atlantic waters were abnormally high across the board that season, so the waters were significantly warmer... around the 23-24C level if I remember. The waters right now off the Azores aren't even 20C.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Well you can certainly tell that there isnt anything out there to talk about because the WU bloggers are all now arguing over what isnt there and whether the non-tropical low should be named, investigated or not. LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:
LOL. Just think of how this blog will blow up when that happens. Half the blog will go nucking futs over it, and the other half will be too busy laughing to say anything.


You're presuming half of the blog isn't already nucking futs... LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Exactly. They were WAY off on 2005... but they kept on naming storms.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If the GFS were to be correct, we would have another "Arthur" for Mexico next week or so lol..

The NHC makes mistakes like we all do, they made a mistake with 90L, I think they will be smarter with this one, lets not forget Vince in 2005, formed in waters cool as the waters where 92L is, and Vince I believe formed in the same exact spot!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL. Just think of how this blog will blow up when that happens. Half the blog will go nucking futs over it, and the other half will be too busy laughing to say anything.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
NHC does have some of the best experts in the world on this issue (including, formerly, our Dr. Masters)and they do a great job and have been steadily improving forecasting issues over the past 15 years....However, all experts recognize that the biggest gap is in the realm of intensifcation issues; that 90L just deepend quite a bit just as it made landfall when it hit the pocket of favorable shear..Don't blame NHC for that one..


Moreover, consensus in forecasts is needed inside of any National Weather Service of any country. For example, at Spain: there are Territorial Delegations of our AEMET Each delegation makes its own forecasts for its region, but those forecasts need to be agreed with the main centre of AEMET (located in Madrid). It is a very complex network!

Then, the situation can be very similar with your NHC which depends on the NWS, etc... They can't give a name "easily", as a consensus is needed between each part of this network.

Not sure if you understand what I want to mean... (oh, my bad English.............)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


LOL.

I get a kick out of how they describe 92L...."A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE"

"non-tropical"? Then why are they even mentioning it?


I think they call Subtropical Storms "NON-TROPICAL"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I really doubt the NHC is worried about being wrong with their pre-season numbers. They aren't naming these storms because these storms do not deserve to be named.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting StormW:


You're welcome...yeah, I'm waitin' for them to start designating the polar vortex as an INVEST.

They have, and are now calling it officially 92L. The SSD is calling it ST3.0
strength on Dvorak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


You're welcome...yeah, I'm waitin' for them to start designating the polar vortex as an INVEST.


Maybe they'll post a storm warning for Mount Washington while they're at it... :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 794 - 744

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
69 °F
Mostly Cloudy