Hurricane season begins today; normal June activity expected

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on June 01, 2009

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Hurricane season is upon us, and it's time to take a look at the prevailing conditions and 2-week forecast for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fourteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include last year's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes, 1851 - 2007.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are close to average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). These temperatures are some of the coolest we've seen since 1995, when the current active hurricane period began. This year's cool SSTs should prevent a repeat of the unforgettable Hurricane Season of 2005, which had the highest SSTs on record in the tropical Atlantic. Note also that SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America are quite a bit above average, signaling the possible start of an El Niño episode. As I discussed in Friday's post, odds are increasing for a weak El Niño to form in time for hurricane season, and this should cut down on the number and intensity of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes this year. However, if an El Niño is developing, it shouldn't start affecting Atlantic hurricane activity until August.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 26 - 28°C in these regions, which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979, which coincidentally will be the name given to this year's first storm.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for June 1, 2009. SSTs were near average over the tropical Atlantic. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
It's not just the SSTs that are important for hurricanes, it's also the total amount of heat in the ocean to a depth of about 150 meters. Hurricanes stir up water from down deep due to their high winds, so a shallow layer of warm water isn't as beneficial to a hurricane as a deep one. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, Figure 3) is a measure of this total heat content. A high TCHP over 80 is very beneficial to rapid intensification. As we can see, the heat energy available in the tropical Atlantic has declined considerably since 2005, when the highest SSTs ever measured in the tropical Atlantic occurred. TCHP this year is similar to last year's levels, which were high enough to support five major hurricanes.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for May 31 2005 (top), May 31 of last year (middle) and May 30 2009 (bottom). TCHP is a measure of the total heat energy available in the ocean. Record high values of TCHP were observed in 2005. TCHP this year is much lower, and similar to last year. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Tropical Depression One formed. The low shear "hole" has dipped down into the northern Gulf of Mexico a few times. Disturbance 90L, which almost developed into a tropical storm before it came ashore in Mississippi/Alabama on May 23, took advantage of one of these low-shear areas.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days. This means that the waters offshore of the Carolinas are the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the northern Gulf of Mexico will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The latest 16-day forecast by the GFS model (Figure 4) predicts that the subtropical jet will weaken and retreat northwards by the middle of June, creating low-shear conditions over the Caribbean. This is a typical occurrence for mid-June, and we need to start watching the Western Caribbean for tropical storm formation by the middle of the month.


Figure 4. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2009 run of the GFS model for June 1 (left panel) and June 17 (right panel). Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina under low shear, making this area the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. By June 17, the subtropical jet is expected to weaken and move northwards, leaving the Caribbean under low shear, and favoring that region for tropical storm formation. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why 2007's Subtropical Storm Andrea never became a tropical storm. Dr. Amato Evan of the University of Wisconsin will issue his dust forecast for the coming hurricane season later this week, and I'll be discussing his forecast in an upcoming post.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has been typical for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3-5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the typical June pattern, bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast capable of recurving any June storms that might form. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 36% chance of a named storm occurring in the first half of June. The current conditions in the atmosphere and ocean are near average, so expect about a 1/3 chance of a named storm between now and June 15. The computer models are currently not forecasting development of any tropical storms over the next seven days.

I'll have an update Tuesday afternoon, when I'll discuss the Colorado State University June Atlantic Hurricane season forecast by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray, which will be issued Tuesday morning.

My next analysis and 2-week outlook for hurricane season is scheduled for June 13.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:
here is my



You have posted 5071 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 33747 comments in all blogs.


You win. I think you have the most post on this site.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
here is my



You have posted 5071 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 33747 comments in all blogs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Taz, who what where when?
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And i was not here during the peak of 2008...lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Been a member since 7-31-2006. Although, I remember finding this site when Alberto formed.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
387. Weather456 12:17 AM GMT on June 02, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting CaneWarning:
Wow, I just realized I've posted over 500 comments.

You have posted 510 comments in all blogs.



Gosh

You have posted 9671 comments in all blogs.


Lol....

You have posted 230 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 6105 comments in all blogs.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting Weather456:


Gosh

You have posted 9671 comments in all blogs.


You win.

You have posted 6559 comments in all blogs.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting CaneWarning:
Wow, I just realized I've posted over 500 comments.

You have posted 510 comments in all blogs.



Gosh

You have posted 9671 comments in all blogs.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting IKE:
More sayings on the blog...when the NHC issues an update and several of us think that a blob is showing signs of developing...and the NHC doesn't.....

"""I can't believe they didn't say it was organizing"""

"""I don't trust the NHC"""

"""Their full of BS"""


LOL...
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
385. TX2FL
As a result of the air conditioning units being a possible cause, They must now be at least 10 feet from any engines while running, we keep them further than that away. Several people I worked with in Florida that worked for TWA in JFK were working that night of the crash.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, I just realized I've posted over 500 comments.

You have posted 510 comments in all blogs.

Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Patrap:
In a lil over a Month,, U.S.Navy Salvage Divers and most of the Naval Salvage Fleet and Divers recovered all the victims from Flight 800 and over 90% of the Aircraft.

Not a Bad attempt at finding out what occurred.
No evidence ever found suggested anything other than the NTSB findings of Flight 800.





I know someone who was supposed to have been on the flight. They had tickets and everything but didn't make it.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
A good excerpt video of what occurred to TWA Flight 800

Prior to its departure, TWA 800 was delayed while waiting for ground personnel to locate a "missing" passenger. While the plane sat on the hot tarmac, the air conditioning units kept the passengers cool, but at the same time they generated tremendous heat. Because the A/C units on the 747 are located directly beneath the center wing tank, the heat they generated heated the fuel in the center tank.
As a liquid, JET A-1 fuel is extremely difficult to ignite, but as a vapor it is highly explosive.
Eventually the ground personnel found the "missing" passenger (was already onboard) and TWA 800 left JFK over an hour late. The delay had allowed the fuel in the center wing tank to be heat up to its flash point.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125625
In a lil over a Month,, U.S.Navy Salvage Divers and most of the Naval Salvage Fleet and Divers recovered all the victims from Flight 800 and over 90% of the Aircraft.

Not a Bad attempt at finding out what occurred.
No evidence ever found suggested anything other than the NTSB findings of Flight 800.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125625
380. TX2FL
Coming in the middle of this but since i'm an airline employee, I study this stuff alot. The NTSB did officially say in 2002 that probable cause of the TWA flight 800 accident was an explosion of the center wing fuel tank (CWT), resulting from ignition of the flammable fuel/air mixture in the tank. The source of ignition energy for the explosion could not be determined exactly, but, of the sources evaluated by the investigation, the most likely was a short circuit outside of the CWT that allowed excessive voltage to enter it through electrical wiring associated with the fuel quantity indication system.

There are several missile strike conspiracy theories though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if they dont name it now we will find out if they do it at post season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


I trust what you have to say, Levi.
Do you see why this is not a TD/TS/STS/Anything more than it is now?

Thanks.


Quoting Weather456:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 012355
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


I do not understand why the NHC delays naming these things. Pretty soon it will fizzle and they'll say it never was an STS, but it is, and has been already for the 6-hour minimum the NHC likes to see before naming something. They're inconsistent in this area so I can't say for sure why it is or what they'll do next. All I can say is that by all definition, this invest is a sub-tropical storm.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
377. IKE
Well they did say it was non-tropical, so I'm half wrong.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
i think they make this 92L
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375. IKE
Well...I was wrong.

OOPS!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Patrap:
TWA Flight 800 was caused by a Explosion from a Fuel Cell..that ignited and exploded.

The NTSB investigation ended with the adoption of its final report on August 23, 2000. In it they concluded that the probable cause of the accident was an explosion of the center wing fuel tank, most likely as a result of faulty wiring.




Wow it took them 4 years to reach a conclusion...and that wasn't even 100% certain.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
TWA Flight 800 was caused by a Explosion from a Fuel Cell..that ignited and exploded.

The NTSB investigation ended with the adoption of its final report on August 23, 2000. In it they concluded that the probable cause of the accident was an explosion of the center wing fuel tank, most likely as a result of faulty wiring.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125625
i be keeping track for post season storms

so far we got 90L wish could have been name later on in the season


91L could be update too a TS at post season


and we got per 92L wish could be come a ST or STS if not will find out at post season



did i for get any thing???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
371. Mikla
In most planes the o2 masks drop immediately on loss of cabin pressure, or the pilot can trip them. In all cases the passenger must pull on the mask to start the flow of o2. Some systems use main tanks of oxygen to supply each mask, but others (and I believe this plane was one of them), there is a small (about the size of a soda can) chemical canister for each set of masks (usually 3 masks) that produces oxygen by burning the chemical. The burning is started by pulling on the mask, which fires an initiater.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Without any Radio Calls post event its more likely a Catastrophic Failure occurred that overwhelmed the Crew,or even a Sudden Mid-Air Break Up is plausible.

The weather could have played a Major Role as these Carbon Fiber Composites can fail with Deadly results as in New York in November 2001.



Flight 587




We may never know. If I remember correctly, they never determined the cause of TWA 800's crash over the Atlantic. I assume the plane has landed on the ocean floor and at those depths may never be recovered making the chance of us finding a reason even less likely.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Weather456:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 012355
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Wow, so they actually gave it a small chance of being a sub-tropical depression in the next couple of days.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Without any Radio Calls post event its more likely a Catastrophic Failure occurred that overwhelmed the Crew,or even a Sudden Mid-Air Break Up is plausible.

The weather could have played a Major Role as these Carbon Fiber Composites can fail with Deadly results as in New York in November 2001.



Flight 587

The plane's vertical stabilizer and rudder separated in flight and fell into Jamaica Bay, about 1 mile north of the main wreckage site. The plane's engines subsequently separated in flight and fell several blocks north and east of the main wreckage site. All 260 people aboard the plane and 5 people on the ground died, and the impact forces and a post-crash fire destroyed the plane. Flight 587 operated under the provisions of 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 121 on an instrument flight rules flight plan. Visual meteorological conditions (VMC) prevailed at the time of the accident.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125625
what you no LOL



they said some in about it



000
ABNT20 KNHC 012355
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
30% isnt impressive but ill take it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
More sayings on the blog...when the NHC issues an update and several of us think that a blob is showing signs of developing...and the NHC doesn't.....

"""I can't believe they didn't say it was organizing"""

"""I don't trust the NHC"""

"""Their full of BS"""


Yeah, and then someone will say "Accuweather says this is going to turn into a Cat 5 and hit insert name of major city here and I agree with them. The NHC is being political."
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
000
ABNT20 KNHC 012355
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting IKE:


I know that. I'm just asking in relation to how long it takes passengers to don a mask, although 99.9% of us never pay attention to what the stewardess is telling us.


I would assume it would take much longer for a passenger.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
362. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


It doesn't really matter what the passengers can do - if the pilot is out they are going down no matter what.


I know that. I'm just asking in relation to how long it takes passengers to don a mask, although 99.9% of us never pay attention to what the stewardess is telling us.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
361. IKE
More sayings on the blog...when the NHC issues an update and several of us think that a blob is showing signs of developing...and the NHC doesn't.....

"""I can't believe they didn't say it was organizing"""

"""I don't trust the NHC"""

"""Their full of BS"""
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


What about the passengers?


It doesn't really matter what the passengers can do - if the pilot is out they are going down no matter what.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
359. IKE
Quoting Mikla:
FAA (and most international standards) requires a pilot to don their mask if one pilot leaves the cockpit (over 15k ft I think)... though I am not sure how well this is followed. There is also a requirement for quick don of the mask. When I worked on the devleopment of masks for commercial aircraft, every pilot we tested could don in under 7 seconds in a surprise emergency setting... the quickest was under 3 secs. At 35k feet or so they should have plenty of time to get the mask on before feeling the afffects of hypoxia. But who knows what really happened in the cabin during an emergency.


What about the passengers?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
357. Mikla
FAA (and most international standards) requires a pilot to don their mask if one pilot leaves the cockpit (over 15k ft I think)... though I am not sure how well this is followed. There is also a requirement for quick don of the mask. When I worked on the devleopment of masks for commercial aircraft, every pilot we tested could don in under 7 seconds in a surprise emergency setting... the quickest was under 3 secs. At 35k feet or so they should have plenty of time to get the mask on before feeling the afffects of hypoxia. But who knows what really happened in the cabin during an emergency.
Quoting truecajun:
maybe that explains whey there was no mayday call made, stsimon. they must have all passed out. they keep saying something had to have happened quickly to keep the pilots from a mayday call.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
356. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


We'll see Ikster!

LOL I couldnt resist...


LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
NexSat GOM Sector
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125625
Quoting IKE:


They won't. Water temps are around 17C.


We'll see Ikster!

LOL I couldnt resist...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
353. IKE
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


Why?


Why? Because they will think it's a non-tropical low.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
352. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Definitely possible...I just want to see if they actually have the gusto to mention it.


They won't. Water temps are around 17C.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


And it's going to say...tropical storm formation is not expected in the next 48 hours.


Why?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


And it's going to say...tropical storm formation is not expected in the next 48 hours.


Definitely possible...I just want to see if they actually have the gusto to mention it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
349. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Atlantic TWO in about 20 minutes.


And it's going to say...tropical storm formation is not expected in the next 48 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
348. IKE
Flight path....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Atlantic TWO in about 20 minutes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The first potential chance for EPAC development gone

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011731
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
345. IKE
This from MSNBC on the flight...."The plane "crossed through a thunderous zone with strong turbulence," Air France said. About 14 minutes later, at 11:14 p.m. local time, an automatic message was sent reporting electrical system failure and a loss of cabin pressure. Air France said the message was the last it heard from Flight 447."....


If anybody remembers PGA golfer Payne Stewart and how he died see section on his death..."National Transportation Safety Board investigators concluded that the plane suffered a loss of cabin pressure and that all on board died of hypoxia, lack of oxygen."......


Those 228 may have never known what happened(plane crashed in the Atlantic). Their gone.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Have a good night all. Here are some interesting weather vids I ran across while looking for the lighting item. That Atlantic system sure does look to be in good health. Be well and prayers to those on the plane.

Link

Link

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.