Season's first tropical depression forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:43 PM GMT on May 28, 2009

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Nature is jumping the gun a bit this year, with the season's first tropical depression forming four days before the official start to hurricane season. The area of disturbed weather (91L) that we've been watching, about 250 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has developed enough heavy thunderstorm activity and spin to be classified as a tropical depression. QuikSCAT imagery from last night revealed a closed surface circulation, but top winds of only 20 - 25 mph. Satellite estimates (using a cloud pattern recognition method called the "Dvorak" technique) were saying this was a tropical depression this morning, though, so the NHC elected to upgrade the system.

The disturbance is over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream (25°C) and has wind shear of 5 - 10 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Friday, when the system will likely move over waters too cold to support intensification. TD One is not a threat to any land areas. I give the storm a 60% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Ana.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD One.

Is the formation of TD One a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
Probably not. Early season storms occurring near the U.S. coast have not been shown to be correlated with an active main portion of hurricane season during August - October. However, the situation is different if we start getting June and July storms in the deep tropics between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This was the case last year, when the formation of Hurricane Bertha in the deep tropics in July presaged an active 2008 hurricane season. According to the Hurricane FAQ, "as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during June and July have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a June/July storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" condition for a year to produce at least average activity."

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida last week, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Equipment will also be provided to local shelters and other organizations working with flood victims. To help out, visit the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Images credit: NOAA.

Jeff Masters

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254. IKE
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
This is kind of funny. We had 90L which was only an invest and there was 1000+ posts on this blog. And right now there's a TD that might became TS Ana and there's less than 300 posts on this blog!


Because it was affecting a land mass...this TD is only affecting a fish mass.
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90L had direct Impacts to Land,and Populations

The TD is a Phish..


Big difference in Post always
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Almost to tropical storm strength:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.3 3.0

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29942
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
This is kind of funny. We had 90L which was only an invest and there was 1000+ posts on this blog. And right now there's a TD that might became TS Ana and there's less than 300 posts on this blog!

The NHC knows 90L should have been Ana (at least TD1), but they forecasted it to be a dud, and they didn't want to be wrong. Funny thing... same thing with 91L, but now we have TD1.
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HUMBERTO was one for the record books....lol! it was still strenghting over land... crazy storm... It was fun to sit outside and watch though
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This is kind of funny. We had 90L which was only an invest and there was 1000+ posts on this blog. And right now there's a TD that might became TS Ana and there's less than 300 posts on this blog!
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Back on the last post, how did nrtiwlnvragn get that renaming from 91L to 01L?
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All you have to do is take a look at the 2004 season. It was a neutral season slightly in the warm phase. El Nino didn't kick in until towards the end of the season. Didn't matter much at that point. I personally think neutral conditions are more conducive to more storms IMO. Look at 2005.
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Make preparations for hurricane season

May 26, 2009 9:35 AM

As the 2009 hurricane season nears, North Carolina Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler reminds farmers to take necessary steps to help protect their farms, families and workers if a storm strikes.

“Planning is essential to reducing the potential damage from hurricanes and tropical storms,” Troxler said. “Preparing now can help farmers avoid learning hard lessons later.”

Hurricane season runs June 1-Nov. 30, and weather forecasters predict 12 to 16 named tropical storms in the Atlantic this year.

Farmers need to make preparations for their families, workers, equipment and buildings, and have backup plans for electricity for their barns and other critical farm facilities, Troxler said. In addition, livestock operations should maintain emergency plans that address power needs and on-site feed capabilities.

Troxler said farmers should have a transfer switch properly installed so they can use a generator. A properly installed transfer switch is critical for the protection of farm facilities and utility workers, he said.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Ty to some of those who sent me a email from earlier this morning on me saying this was probably a TD due to the size of the system..the sat estimates of wind speed were probably 5-10 mph lower and it really was closer to 30kts. But as I said also.. this wont make it thru the night.
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Quoting Patrap:
New wave of anxieties feared over hurricanes

By JENNIFER RADCLIFFE Copyright 2009 Houston Chronicle
May 25, 2009, 9:20PM

Hurricane Ike left hundreds of Houston children with signs of post-traumatic stress disorder, and mental health experts worry that more youngsters could start showing symptoms of the anxiety illness as a new hurricane season rolls in next month.

Characterized by feelings of fear and helplessness, symptoms of the disorder include trouble sleeping, eating and concentrating.

“It can be either gradual or a sudden onset,” said Megan Mooney, a staff psychologist with DePelchin Children’s Center. “We will be expecting that with the beginning of hurricane season to see children with sudden onset.”

Media coverage of the upcoming hurricane season, which begins June 1 for the Gulf Coast, could trigger symptoms for some children, she said.




The biggest impact that an imprudent parent could have on a child during h-season is to fail to evacuate their family if ordered to do so by local officials and risk their lives....The parent's need to assure their kids that hurricanes are a fact of life and that they will be protected by their parents and kept safe if a storm threatens...
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Quoting cg2916:
What would happen if, say, TD1 became Ana at 8PM? Would they issue a special advisory or some special statement?

If you remember hurricane Humberto you'll know that sometimes it's necessary for extra updates. With that storm there was a new wind advisory every hour. If there weren't intermediary updates Humbertos first advisory could have been a cat one on land
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Tax 'holiday' for hurricane supplies this week
Posted to: Business News Weather Virginia

Sales-tax incentive
Certain items will be exempt from the state’s 5 percent sales tax from Monday to May 31.


Exempt items
Here is the list of items that are exempt from the state’s 5 percent sales tax from Monday to May 31.
items costing $60 or less

* Artificial ice
* Batteries (excluding automobile or boat batteries)
* Bottled water
* Flashlights, lanterns, glow sticks or other portable light sources
* Radios – portable, self-powered; two-way; weather band radios and NOAA weather radios
* Tarpaulins, plastic sheeting or drop cloths or other waterproof sheeting
* Bungee cords
* Rope
* Ground anchor systems or tie-down kits
* Ratchet straps
* Duct tape
* Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
* Fire extinguishers
* Gas or diesel fuel tanks or containers
* Water storage containers
* Non-electric food storage coolers
* Manual can openers
* Storm shutter devices
* Cell phone chargers
* First aid kits

Items costing $1,000 or less

* Portable generators
* Generator power cords
* Inverters and inverter power cables

Source: www.tax.virginia.gov/salestaxholiday

By Carolyn Shapiro
The Virginian-Pilot
© May 26, 2009

Memorial Day is likely to get Hampton Roads residents thinking more about vacations, beaches and the warm summer sun than about hurricanes.

But with Atlantic Coast hurricane season officially beginning June 1, consumers can save a bit on items they might buy to stock up for potential storms.

The second Virginia sales-tax holiday for hurricane preparedness runs today through May 31 and allows consumers to save the state's 5 percent sales tax on designated items, from portable generators to duct tape.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
New wave of anxieties feared over hurricanes

By JENNIFER RADCLIFFE Copyright 2009 Houston Chronicle
May 25, 2009, 9:20PM

Hurricane Ike left hundreds of Houston children with signs of post-traumatic stress disorder, and mental health experts worry that more youngsters could start showing symptoms of the anxiety illness as a new hurricane season rolls in next month.

Characterized by feelings of fear and helplessness, symptoms of the disorder include trouble sleeping, eating and concentrating.

“It can be either gradual or a sudden onset,” said Megan Mooney, a staff psychologist with DePelchin Children’s Center. “We will be expecting that with the beginning of hurricane season to see children with sudden onset.”

Media coverage of the upcoming hurricane season, which begins June 1 for the Gulf Coast, could trigger symptoms for some children, she said.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
RANDOM FLASHBACK TIME... Barry '07. I went thorugh it on my vacation as an extratropical storm. Let me say one thing... if that was an extratropical storm, then I don't want to go through a hurricane.
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Need confirmation from others who see this as well
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Never seen this many spinners in May before hurricane season, this could be sign of things to come out there, but we'll see.
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Quoting cg2916:
What would happen if, say, TD1 became Ana at 8PM? Would they issue a special advisory or some special statement?


It is possible, they sometimes do that with developing storms (like Ike's strengthening or Josephine becoming a TS which i remember).
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definite spin north of Puerto Rico and small vort north of Bermuda
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look at visible loops
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231. IKE
(CNN) -- Continental shelves beneath the retreating polar ice caps of the Arctic may hold almost double the amount of oil previously found in the region, scientists say. Link
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My GOD there's a vort spinning north of Bermuda and another spinning vort low pressure way to the south of Bermuda/north of Puerto Rico, what the hell is going on out there....
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Ike proves importance of hurricane preparedness
Jacksonville Progress


By Kelly Young

kyoung@jacksonvilleprogress.com

Following a 2008 hurricane season whose effects devastated the Gulf Coast in addition to reaching all the way to Cherokee County in addition to devastating the Gulf Coast, the wisdom of being prepared for the worst can’t be overstated.

Hurricane season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, and the Texas Governor’s Division of Emergency Management has named this week — May 24-30 — as Hurricane Preparedness Week. Texans are encouraged to use this week as an opportunity to prepare an emergency supply kit, devise an evacuation plan and learn how to minimize their chances of catastrophic loss or death.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
The development of El Nino has caused implications in predicting the 2009 tropical atmopshere. It could or it could not. Which makes it more interesting when the season arrives.
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Quoting tillou:
Heres a El Nino question:

With El Nino conditions being forcasted/happening in the Eastern Pacific, should we be seeing more activity there now? The EPAC season did start about a month ago right?


Very interesting as NOAA predicts a below normal season there. They said it was because neutral conditions tend to decrease activity there. Personally, I feel El Nino conditions will not arrive as soon as expected. Waters will warm, but the remainder of the tropical atmosphere will not feedback for about 1-2 months. This occured in 2004 when we had warm anamalies in August/September but the effects arrived October when Nicole ended the long period of actitivty.
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225. IKE
Looking at TD1...looks like it's holding it's own or maybe weakening slightly. Maybe just DMIN.
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What would happen if, say, TD1 became Ana at 8PM? Would they issue a special advisory or some special statement?
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Quoting tillou:
Heres a El Nino question:

With El Nino conditions being forcasted/happening in the Eastern Pacific, should we be seeing more activity there now? The EPAC season did start about a month ago right?

Yep but surprisingly the Atlantic is more active now and no eastern pacific storms yet.Not even a depression.lol
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pressure dropped one millibar since the last advisory, so it's it strengthening slowly
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Heres a El Nino question:

With El Nino conditions being forcasted/happening in the Eastern Pacific, should we be seeing more activity there now? The EPAC season did start about a month ago right?
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Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
The update is at 5pm and 11pm and 5am and 11am correct?


ha. we're like, opposites or something!

anyway this is one of those anomaly type storms... reminds me of 2005 vince.
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217. Skyepony (Mod)
The discussion is 2 & 8.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37488
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Hi guys. I have a question about WU's email. How can someone send me an email that has no name in the from field? I got an email that doesn't indicate who it is from - it is just blank there. Any ideas?


I just checked and there appears to be no way to do that. Was it a legitimate email or was it from someone trying to sell you his "system" to become a real estate tycoon even if you're bankrupt?
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 282031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT
305 MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND
ABOUT 565 MILES...905 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...
26 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE OVER COLDER
WATERS BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.7N 69.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


No...hurricanemaniac123 had it right. Advisories are at 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm.


Okay. I'm was checking actually. I wasn't sure though...
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Hi guys. I have a question about WU's email. How can someone send me an email that has no name in the from field? I got an email that doesn't indicate who it is from - it is just blank there. Any ideas?


I didn't even know that you can send an email without a name.
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Hi guys. I have a question about WU's email. How can someone send me an email that has no name in the from field? I got an email that doesn't indicate who it is from - it is just blank there. Any ideas?


I didn't think that was possible. Did they indicate who they are? Or if you hit reply does it show a name?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Hi guys. I have a question about WU's email. How can someone send me an email that has no name in the from field? I got an email that doesn't indicate who it is from - it is just blank there. Any ideas?
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Looks like there are 2 lows in the Gulf, one moving southeast towards Florida and another one moving towards the Yucatan pen.Link
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Quoting AGuyInAustin:


The updates are at 2am, 8am, 2pm, and 8pm.
Wow! I can't believe we have TD1 in our hands, ready to turn into Ana, really close.

:)


No...hurricanemaniac123 had it right. Advisories are at 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
The update is at 5pm and 11pm and 5am and 11am correct?


The updates are at 2am, 8am, 2pm, and 8pm.
That's for NHC...
Wow! I can't believe we have TD1 in our hands, ready to turn into Ana, really close.

:)
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The closes Jim got to my house was in Fort Lauderdale when I am 10 miles north of him in Boca during Hurricane Katrina.Other than him Jeff, Stephanie and Mike were farther from me like in Miami or West Palm.:(......One day they will come here.
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5 PM out, no real change other than the pressure went down 1 MB.
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Quoting tkeith:
I'll take him over Geraldo standing on a flood wall...


But that would great, just one little shove and..........LOL
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TD 1

AOI #2
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.