Season's first tropical depression forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:43 PM GMT on May 28, 2009

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Nature is jumping the gun a bit this year, with the season's first tropical depression forming four days before the official start to hurricane season. The area of disturbed weather (91L) that we've been watching, about 250 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has developed enough heavy thunderstorm activity and spin to be classified as a tropical depression. QuikSCAT imagery from last night revealed a closed surface circulation, but top winds of only 20 - 25 mph. Satellite estimates (using a cloud pattern recognition method called the "Dvorak" technique) were saying this was a tropical depression this morning, though, so the NHC elected to upgrade the system.

The disturbance is over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream (25°C) and has wind shear of 5 - 10 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Friday, when the system will likely move over waters too cold to support intensification. TD One is not a threat to any land areas. I give the storm a 60% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Ana.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD One.

Is the formation of TD One a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
Probably not. Early season storms occurring near the U.S. coast have not been shown to be correlated with an active main portion of hurricane season during August - October. However, the situation is different if we start getting June and July storms in the deep tropics between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This was the case last year, when the formation of Hurricane Bertha in the deep tropics in July presaged an active 2008 hurricane season. According to the Hurricane FAQ, "as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during June and July have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a June/July storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" condition for a year to produce at least average activity."

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida last week, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Equipment will also be provided to local shelters and other organizations working with flood victims. To help out, visit the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Images credit: NOAA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting atmoaggie:


That's right, "deal with it" is a great way to cover it, but auto accidents and malnutrition are killing more. Problems we can actually do something about. We cannot undo the most recent glacial period.


The article does mention malnutrition. I think we can all do little things that are better for the environment whether we believe in global warming or not. For example, I recycle and now only use canvass bags at Publix. I want to use less natural resources. I don't see anything wrong with that. I encourage others to do the same.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Orcasystems:


Good mileage always trumps people eating and the price of food :(


Ponder this --- Add two additional high end gears and what happens to your mileage? You can easily double it on flat terrain like Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:


This is a big issue that the world has to deal with sooner or later.


That's right, "deal with it" is a great way to cover it, but auto accidents and malnutrition are killing more. Problems we can actually do something about. We cannot undo the most recent glacial period.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I get good mileage!


(unfair comment, not sure if StormW knew we were talking about ethanol fuel, and changing food into fuel)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
550. IKE
TD1......

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting StormW:


2008 Mustang V6 Coupe. Even with the performance stuff I've put on it, I'm gettin' 21-22mpg City, and 30+ on the highway.


That isn't bad. Not too much different than my car. One day, I may even buy a hybrid.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
548. JRRP
Quoting Orcasystems:


cmc 2009052900 Forecast slp Java Animation
Develops the one in the pacific.. but not the GOM

yh
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547. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
wow that sad.. up to 275 deaths from Cyclonic Storm Aila. =(
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Quoting JRRP:

CMC develops that area.... i think


cmc 2009052900 Forecast slp Java Animation
Develops the one in the pacific.. but not the GOM
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting StormW:


I get good mileage!


What do you drive?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
542. JRRP
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like the 2nd gulf blog got sucked into the wave that just entered the EPAC. May see an invest there soon.

CMC develops that area.... i think
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Quoting Ossqss:
Let's see how this compares to the up and coming run.



Hmm why doesn't yours match this one?
gfs 2009052906 Forecast slp Java Animation
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
20% chance for Tpa at the end of may,is about normal..usually our rainy season starts in ernest about mid-late june....
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Quoting theFatherofNature:
Thank you all for the lists of colleges. I'm trying to go somewhere in south florida


Should that not work out I have to interject here.

U South Alabama - Mobile has a nice program and a couple of really good tropical researchers on staff.

Cannot forget U Alabama - Huntsville, Texas A&M (how did you other guys forget this one? Really.), U Washington, UCLA, Texas Tech, Illinois, SUNY - sometown, Valpo, Missouri - Springfield, Mississippi State, U Maryland, more-i-am-forgetiing.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Oss, that run shows something in the gulf for sure going in around New Orleans of course.


Also shows the Sat/Sun spoiler
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ORCA SYSTEMS-For now the wind shear out there should put any tropical development on hold.
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536. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like the 2nd gulf blog got sucked into the wave that just entered the EPAC. May see an invest there soon.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39455
Oss, that run shows something in the gulf for sure going in around New Orleans of course.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Local MET in WPB Steve Weagle seems to think the front/surface trough in the GOMEX is going to be a Saturday spoiler for us.


Tampa only has a 20% chance of rain on Saturday. Way below normal. It looks like WPB shows a 70% chance of rain though.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Let's see how this compares to the up and coming run.

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Local MET in WPB Steve Weagle seems to think the front/surface trough in the GOMEX is going to be a Saturday spoiler for us.
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Quoting hydrus:
ORCA SYSTEMS-Do you think we might have something brewing in the Gulf of Mexico in the near future?It does look interesting.


I don't see anything brewing... the models show something small starting and stopping over and over again in the BOC... but nothing close to firm.

I think we may have one brewing in the pacific to watch :)

That being said... I don't even pretend to know what I am talking about...I can understand models and graphics.. but thats about it. I leave the heavy predictions up to people like StormW and Weather 456, who actually appear to now what they are talking about (unlike a few others on here).
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
The area ENE of the bahamas might be our next invest,IMO..it should move NW than WNW.....
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If Glenn beck doesn't believe in GW,Then it can't be true,lol.....somepeople can get slapped in the face and still say "I didn't get slapped"..amazing,ignorance is bliss,so they say!!!,IMO
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I had the 21st..and it looked pretty got for awhile


I picked 6/6/09. I guess there is still time.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
ORCA SYSTEMS-Do you think we might have something brewing in the Gulf of Mexico in the future?It does look interesting.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Thanks goodness, I didn't pick any dates in May for the first storm to form.


I had the 21st..and it looked pretty good for awhile
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting Nolehead:
morning everyone, i'm suprised that the NHC didn't upgrade her to TS...but if i heard right...last night TWC said that if it did get named that it would have been the 1st north storm to ever develope this soon...now of course it's TWC saying this but if it did get named talk about everyone freakin over GW..but hey, who knows maybe this is something we really need to pay attention too for the next few years...since the last 3 have already started earlier each year...something to ponder...


I believe that either way,this was the furthest north a TC has formed in the atlantic,I think,I saw the same thing last night on TWC..
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Quoting IKE:
RIP TD1.....

We are gathered here today to pay our final respects to TD1...aka Ha-Anna. She blossomed while grazing the outer banks of NC and points beyond. Only to be stripped of her title and reduced to a North Atlantic swirl.

May you rest in peace as you eventually get sucked into a North Atlantic non-tropical low.


Thanks goodness, I didn't pick any dates in May for the first storm to form.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Ossqss:


Information is like a chisel on brick. As an example, the earlier article makes no reference to the impact on the starving population of the world by the recent focus on turning grain into gas instead of food for the hungry. They used to eat what now takes more energy, in total, to produce than it provides.


Ethanol should be done away with in my opinion. We should focus of more fuel efficient cars like the Prius or other hybrids. Taking food and turning it into fuel makes no sense to me when so many are starving.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Hmmmmmmm

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
I was really pulling for Ana. My wife and I place a bet every year on which month will see the first named storm. She has June. May would have been a no decision. Come on July!
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519. IKE
RIP TD1.....

We are gathered here today to pay our final respects to TD1...aka Ha-Anna. She blossomed while grazing the outer banks of NC and points beyond. Only to be stripped of her title and reduced to a North Atlantic swirl.

May you rest in peace as you eventually get sucked into a North Atlantic non-tropical low.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am reformed :)
Not playing that game anymore.. like talking to a brick wall.


Information is like a chisel on brick. As an example, the earlier article makes no reference to the impact on the starving population of the world by the recent focus on turning grain into gas instead of food for the hungry. They used to eat what now takes more energy, in total, to produce than it provides.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Vortfix,
Concentration is the best way to accomplish anything. Now that we're in a slow storm period, we can take advantage of the peace and THINK. Even if it's only about what you have to do today. If you concentrate on the tasks before you, then chances are, you'll have a better day. See ya!

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
516. IKE
Well....X-rated TD1. Looks like it got hot and stripped....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
514. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


???


2nd ???
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting vortfix:
Go get em Orca!


I am reformed :)
Not playing that game anymore.. like talking to a brick wall.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting leftovers:
hey there armchair weather pros? if you say no development and there is development dont be surprised a small electric shock comes from your keyboard. punishment for your failure.


???
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510. IKE
"""Did someone say Global Warming?"""

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting CaneWarning:


This is a big issue that the world has to deal with sooner or later.


(Removed, not relevant to the blog)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting TampaSpin:


What a bunch of HogWash.....Look who printed it.....LOL....and they exist as long a they make something out of nothing....WOW!


This is a big issue that the world has to deal with sooner or later.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
For him who has no concentration, there is no tranquility.
- Bhagaved Gita
Good morning and have a great day everyone.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Quoting CaneWarning:
This is interesting, there is a new report out that says climate change is killing 300,000 a year.

Link


What a bunch of HogWash.....Look who printed it.....LOL....and they exist as long a they make something out of nothing....WOW!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting potteryX:
Good Morning.
Post 494, its good to see that this is making "front page" news again. What will the reactions be ???
At 11n 61w, we have had a few gentle showers this morning. Temps yesterday 34c. This is very hot, for an island that is supposed to have its temp. regulated by the balmy sea breezes. Oh well.....


We have been hitting 30 pretty consistently up here also... its nice :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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