Season's first tropical depression forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:43 PM GMT on May 28, 2009

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Nature is jumping the gun a bit this year, with the season's first tropical depression forming four days before the official start to hurricane season. The area of disturbed weather (91L) that we've been watching, about 250 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has developed enough heavy thunderstorm activity and spin to be classified as a tropical depression. QuikSCAT imagery from last night revealed a closed surface circulation, but top winds of only 20 - 25 mph. Satellite estimates (using a cloud pattern recognition method called the "Dvorak" technique) were saying this was a tropical depression this morning, though, so the NHC elected to upgrade the system.

The disturbance is over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream (25°C) and has wind shear of 5 - 10 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Friday, when the system will likely move over waters too cold to support intensification. TD One is not a threat to any land areas. I give the storm a 60% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Ana.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD One.

Is the formation of TD One a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
Probably not. Early season storms occurring near the U.S. coast have not been shown to be correlated with an active main portion of hurricane season during August - October. However, the situation is different if we start getting June and July storms in the deep tropics between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This was the case last year, when the formation of Hurricane Bertha in the deep tropics in July presaged an active 2008 hurricane season. According to the Hurricane FAQ, "as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during June and July have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a June/July storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" condition for a year to produce at least average activity."

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida last week, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Equipment will also be provided to local shelters and other organizations working with flood victims. To help out, visit the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Images credit: NOAA.

Jeff Masters

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The best energy if we could tap it, would be LIGHTNING.

IF we could build some kind of contraption in an area that gets frequent strong lightning storms we could run entire cities. The average lightning volt runs between 10 million and 120 million volts!
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National Hurricane Preparedness Week

History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2009 will be held May 24th through May 30th.

The goal of this Hurricane Preparedness Web site is to inform the public about the hurricane hazards and provide knowledge which can be used to take ACTION. This information can be used to save lives at work, home, while on the road, or on the water.

Friday May 29th "Be Prepared"

"Preventing the loss of life and minimizing the damage to property from hurricanes are responsibilities that are shared by all."

Disaster Prevention should include:

* Developing a Family Plan
* Creating a Disaster Supply Kit
* Having a Place to Go
* Securing your Home
* Having a Pet Plan

One of the most important decisions you will have to make is "Should I Evacuate?"

If you are asked to evacuate, you should do so without delay. But unless you live in a coastal or low-lying area, an area that floods frequently, or in manufactured housing, it is unlikely that emergency managers will ask you to evacuate. That means that it is important for you and your family to HAVE A PLAN that makes you as safe as possible in your home.

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They are stockpiling it and then they will sell it at current prices. Just to rip people off.
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586. atmoaggie

Not trying to poke the hornet's nest here but if we're talking about needing Suburbans to haul all of our kids maybe we need to start thinking about not having as many kids. World population stabilization would go a long way to fixing a lot of our problems both energy-wise and food-wise. While other industrialized countries have seen declines in birth rates the US birth rate is climbing and was at a 45 year high in 2008.
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:
KEH, I don't know how diesel engines in small cars do, but our Ford F350 gets the crappiest gas mileage of any vehicle I've ever owned. On highway I'm lucky to get about 16 mpg and here in Utah it is more expensive for diesel than it is for unleaded. If a manufacturer could make a hybrid or more fuel efficient truck without the loss of towing capacity (for work not toys) then I'd be all over that.

CaneW, kudos to you for using canvas bags while shopping. I have so many to buy for, I'd have to push a cart around just to hold my empty canvas bags! :o) How are ya this morning?


I'm excellent. We got rain again this morning!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
If we could come up w/a proccess that produces energy from salt water,thats an idea...now solar/battery cell cars seems like the way to go...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Oil demand is down and supply is way up, so why the high prices? A few puzzel pieces for you.

Link


Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting atmoaggie:


A Mazda 5, and many others, seat 7 (or maybe 8?) and get almost 30 mph. Some storage room, but not as much as a Suburban.

Atmo, there are 9 of us :o). I have to get the base model suburban with the fold up front seat to fit us all.

CaneW, Any hybrid they make had better come with some dang good 4WD. I use 4WD more than half the year!
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Oh by the way this story was on yahoo this morning Hey StormW long time, How ya doing?
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Quoting atmoaggie:


Why? Would be a lot better to have a rig 30 miles out than your landscape covered in turbines.

Did you know that oil naturally seeps out of the ocean floor in some places?


I would rather not have anything off the coast of Florida. Sure, oil may seep out in some places, but does it seep out off the coast of Florida? I don't know. I don't like any drilling in the gulf to be honest.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting MarcoIsland:
who cares if gas hits $3? I have the choice to either pay for it and drive or not and run out of gas and find other means of transportation.

No one is forcing you to buy $3 gas, $2 gas, or $10 gas.
LOL-This is true Marco,but I beleive that the price of gas when it was over 4 bucks a gallon ,took its toll on small and large businesses and contributed to the down turn of the economic situation.Do you agree?
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KEH, I don't know how diesel engines in small cars do, but our Ford F350 gets the crappiest gas mileage of any vehicle I've ever owned. On highway I'm lucky to get about 16 mpg and here in Utah it is more expensive for diesel than it is for unleaded. If a manufacturer could make a hybrid or more fuel efficient truck without the loss of towing capacity (for work not toys) then I'd be all over that.

CaneW, kudos to you for using canvas bags while shopping. I have so many to buy for, I'd have to push a cart around just to hold my empty canvas bags! :o) How are ya this morning?
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Quoting CaneWarning:
As long as they don't drill off the Florida coast I am fine. If they decide to drill then I'm going to move.


Why? Would be a lot better to have a rig 30 miles out than your landscape covered in turbines.

Did you know that oil naturally seeps out of the ocean floor in some places?
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Morning All, I see the comments about oil. I read this morning that the oil producing companys are putting the oil in tankers and storing it till needed. They were saying that back in 1998 they did this and it failed and oil went down to 10 or 15 a barrel. Looks like they are trying this again and hoping the economy will bounce back this year in this country since we use 40% of the worlds oil.
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maggie:exxon/mobile recorded record profits last yr!!!Link
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
I wonder when Dr. Master's will give us another update...
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


It does, the mslp version you linked does not show the moisture. That tells you it's a mid/upper level feature unsuccessfully trying to establish a surface reflection.



Easier to see on the 850vort.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
A coupla questions

1)How do diesel engines compare with gasoline engines?

2)What map graphic is best for seeing fronts in the Caribbean and West Atlantic. (Wiht forecast front changes)

Thanking you in advance



The diesel and gasoline engines are very similar. The main difference is the diesel engine doesn't use a spark plug to make the combustion it uses the heat from the compression chamber.

Also you can get excellent gas mileage in BIG diesel trucks for instance 26-29 mpg if you have it chipped.
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Interesting topic of discussion this morning. I would be all for a more energy efficient vehicle. Unfortunately I am one of those who drive a suburban as it is one of the few vehicles that can fit my family and give me a little room left over to haul all their crap too. I cringe everytime I have to pay $75+ to fill up my tank.


A Mazda 5, and many others, seat 7 (or maybe 8?) and get almost 30 mph. Some storage room, but not as much as a Suburban.
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As long as they don't drill off the Florida coast I am fine. If they decide to drill then I'm going to move.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmm why doesn't yours match this one?
gfs 2009052906 Forecast slp Java Animation


It does, the mslp version you linked does not show the moisture. That tells you it's a mid/upper level feature unsuccessfully trying to establish a surface reflection.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Interesting topic of discussion this morning. I would be all for a more energy efficient vehicle. Unfortunately I am one of those who drive a suburban as it is one of the few vehicles that can fit my family and give me a little room left over to haul all their crap too. I cringe everytime I have to pay $75+ to fill up my tank.


Maybe one day there will be hybrid Suburbans!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting StormW:


Shell reports decline in profits...Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Profit fell to $3.3 billion

Gee...wish I could make a quarterly profit like that. My heart bleeds for 'em


And 3 bad wells erase half of that. Not enough to explore at home with any earnest.

How many jobs have we created in the Middle East, I wonder. Spent hundreds of billions of future taxpayer money there, too. Killed a bunch of people, locals and Americans. For what? To pay $0.5 less at the pump?
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Quoting atmoaggie:


Certainly use as little as possible in resources. Not a thing wrong with that. There are very few instances where an Excursion or Suburban is warranted. Absurd. Currently, though, the posed 'solutions' to AGW are not about using less resources.

Interesting topic of discussion this morning. I would be all for a more energy efficient vehicle. Unfortunately I am one of those who drive a suburban as it is one of the few vehicles that can fit my family and give me a little room left over to haul all their crap too. I cringe everytime I have to pay $75+ to fill up my tank.
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Charlston:Tropical wx maps from the NHC:Link
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
who cares if gas hits $3? I have the choice to either pay for it and drive or not and run out of gas and find other means of transportation.

No one is forcing you to buy $3 gas, $2 gas, or $10 gas.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
hi all


today i was Featur on Erik Klemetti blog on back on eruption.com



Eruptions reader David pointed out that Anak Krakatau is experiencing heightened activity to the point that officials have closed off a 3-km area around the volcano to fishermen and tourists. The volcano has had increased seismic activity along with a number of vulcanian explosions over the last few weeks.


Link


my name is David
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Quoting stillwaiting:


it was a TS at one point,the winds in this depression were 35mph,39 is a TS,it had the stucture, a warm core and at one point I'll bet had 39mph sustained winds,IMO...its all but gone now(naked swirl),lol..


I don't think this ever deserved to be called a TS.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
I am off to the Tropical Rainforest... then out the door to work :)


TD 1

AOI #2
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting jeffs713:
The problem with corn-based ethanol is that it does not produce as much energy as an equivalent amount of gasoline. Switchgrass-based ethanol (aka. cellulosic ethanol) is closer to gasoline in energy potential. While ethanol overall *is* renewable, there is still the issue of pollution and the automotive culture to be addressed. Its a good temporary fix, but it is not the end-all fix. Something sustainable needs to be developed that does not add as much CO2. One other issue is the fact that the internal combustion engine is not very efficient. It wastes something like 70% of the energy generated in the form of heat. Something to capture that heat is needed.

On a tropical note... TD1 was hardly a TS. It never looked impressive, or even like a TS, and the NHC made the right decision not naming it. It didn't have the winds for a TS when it also had the structure of an almost-TS.


it was a TS at one point,the winds in this depression were 35mph,39 is a TS,it had the stucture, a warm core and at one point I'll bet had 39mph sustained winds,IMO...its all but gone now(naked swirl),lol..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
I think we need to try to avoid using oil at all possible. Why not create another type of engine that runs on something else?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
you said that right storm!!!GREED,we need to step up and change our ways,IMO.....example:if you can walk or bike somewhere instead of driving why don't we???Because as a society aswell as being greedy, there is a equal amount of lazy people,if not more.....Ride a bike,take a walk america!!!!collectively we can put some of these companies in there places,but it'll take a movment,until then expect gas to hit $3 a gallon by mid-late august...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting StormW:


Yeah, and it's funny, how when prices on oil rise, the powers that be come up with every excuse in the book...supply and demand...Oh, this country is unstable, or...we're afraid of tensions in such and such a country...anything but the real issue...GREED!


They haven't made any money lately. And most of that, above, is about speculative investors. The oil companies buy the oil at those prices and have a % profit goal after refining/distribution. For us to get less dependent on foreign sources, our domestic companies would have to make more than they are right now, and for the foreseeable future, to take the risks involved in exploration. If you want all energy to cost more, and everything that depends on it, be happy with our current political leanings.

If nothing else, we might also wonder when there have been enough mergers and there are too few competitors.
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Quoting atmoaggie:


Certainly use as little as possible in resources. Not a thing wrong with that. There are very few instances where an Excursion or Suburban is warranted. Absurd. Currently, though, the posed 'solutions' to AGW are not about using less resources.


I guess I should state that my reaction to possible global warming is to use less resources and avoid doing things that you know are harmful to the environment. I do those things daily and expect others to do the same.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
A coupla questions

1)How do diesel engines compare with gasoline engines?

2)What map graphic is best for seeing fronts in the Caribbean and West Atlantic. (Wiht forecast front changes)

Thanking you in advance
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats why I removed it :)
Mind you, as per normal.. Ossgss is quicker then I am and quoted me. He sure has gotten a lot quicker on here since his team took up Golfing.


You must be confusing the Pen's with the Canucks :)

Golf is big with all the Canadian hockey teams this time of year -- LOL J/K -- well, this year anyhow.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting jeffs713:


On a tropical note... TD1 was hardly a TS. It never looked impressive, or even like a TS, and the NHC made the right decision not naming it. It didn't have the winds for a TS when it also had the structure of an almost-TS.


Man.. I obviously need more coffee.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
The problem with corn-based ethanol is that it does not produce as much energy as an equivalent amount of gasoline. Switchgrass-based ethanol (aka. cellulosic ethanol) is closer to gasoline in energy potential. While ethanol overall *is* renewable, there is still the issue of pollution and the automotive culture to be addressed. Its a good temporary fix, but it is not the end-all fix. Something sustainable needs to be developed that does not add as much CO2. One other issue is the fact that the internal combustion engine is not very efficient. It wastes something like 70% of the energy generated in the form of heat. Something to capture that heat is needed.

On a tropical note... TD1 was hardly a TS. It never looked impressive, or even like a TS, and the NHC made the right decision not naming it. It didn't have the winds for a TS when it also had the structure of an almost-TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:


Ponder this --- Add two additional high end gears and what happens to your mileage? You can easily double it on flat terrain like Florida.


Hmm flat terrain.. I wish.
I walked to work two days ago.. it took me 47 minutes at a pretty good clip... and it was ALL basically down hill.

Barbi picked me up for the ride home... 47 minutes of basically uphill would have killed me.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting CaneWarning:


The article does mention malnutrition. I think we can all do little things that are better for the environment whether we believe in global warming or not. For example, I recycle and now only use canvass bags at Publix. I want to use less natural resources. I don't see anything wrong with that. I encourage others to do the same.


Certainly use as little as possible in resources. Not a thing wrong with that. There are very few instances where an Excursion or Suburban is warranted. Absurd. Currently, though, the posed 'solutions' to AGW are not about using less resources.
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Quoting StormW:


How have you been BTW?


Alive and kicking... and way to darn busy :(
Good to see you back by the way... it means the season is starting, and Hockey is almost over.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Ossqss:


Ponder this --- Add two additional high end gears and what happens to your mileage? You can easily double it on flat terrain like Florida.
Quoting Ossqss:


That is exactly how my 4-cyl Mazda 6 effectively goes in the low gears and gets good mileage at highways speeds.
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559. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 8.3N 100.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.05.2009 8.3N 100.4W WEAK
12UTC 30.05.2009 7.9N 99.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.05.2009 9.0N 99.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.05.2009 10.9N 99.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.06.2009 11.6N 100.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.06.2009 12.0N 102.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.06.2009 12.9N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.06.2009 12.1N 105.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.06.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


---
Reply to Skye on E. Pacific invest.
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Quoting Ossqss:


Ponder this --- Add two additional high end gears and what happens to your mileage? You can easily double it on flat terrain like Florida.


They don't really care about us,its all about the oil companies and profit,Gas prices have been going up because 2 months ago opec cut the amount there refinery's would produce,that and the speculation that the worst of the global reccession maybe over w/push gas above the $3 mark before the end of summer...and until we the consumer "push back"..It'll stay all about the oil execs and there profit,ie:$$$$$$$$$$
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting StormW:


No...I didn't...it was a basic response to the statement...We should focus of more fuel efficient cars


Thats why I removed it :)
Mind you, as per normal.. Ossgss is quicker then I am and quoted me. He sure has gotten a lot quicker on here since his team took up Golfing.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Ossqss:


Ponder this --- Add two additional high end gears and what happens to your mileage? You can easily double it on flat terrain like Florida.


Thats about the only thing saving me.. is the OD settings.. I drive a Magnum.. and I don't think it even knows how to drive past a gas station.

Going to buy a Volt, in the second year of production when they have the new Batteries. They have the new technology lithiums that can be fully charged in about 5 minutes (another Canadian invention)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting atmoaggie:


That's right, "deal with it" is a great way to cover it, but auto accidents and malnutrition are killing more. Problems we can actually do something about. We cannot undo the most recent glacial period.


The article does mention malnutrition. I think we can all do little things that are better for the environment whether we believe in global warming or not. For example, I recycle and now only use canvass bags at Publix. I want to use less natural resources. I don't see anything wrong with that. I encourage others to do the same.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.