Disturbance 91L spins towards Cape Hatteras; Cyclone Aila toll at 180

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on May 27, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, is centered 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. While the storm does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity, it does have a well-developed circulation, and the spin of the system is readily apparent on long range radar animations out of Morehead City, North Carolina. The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Thursday afternoon, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development. The disturbance will track north or north-northeastward at 10 - 15 mph towards North Carolina's Outer Banks today, then get swept northeastwards out to sea on Thursday. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression, but an Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. If the system does develop, the current location of the heaviest thunderstorm activity in a band well removed from the center suggests that 91L would be classified as a subtropical depression. The Outer Banks of North Carolina can expect 20 - 25 mph winds and heavy rain from this system tonight and Thursday morning. In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Latest radar image from the Morehead City, NC radar.

Tropical Cyclone Aila death toll at 180
The year's deadliest tropical cyclone so far, Tropical Cyclone Aila, has killed at least 180 people in India and Bangladesh border region, according to the latest media reports. Aila hit the India/Bangladesh border region on May 25 as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane, bringing sustained winds of 65 - 75 mph and a 3 - 4 meter (10 - 13 foot) storm surge to the coast. Aila has left over 150,000 homeless in India and 500,000 in Bangladesh. The cyclone destroyed over 180,000 homes in Bangladesh--a severe blow for a region still recovering from the devastation wrought by Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Sidr of November 2007, which killed 3,500 people. The death toll form Aila will likely go much higher, as over 500 people are still missing. The Bay of Bengal is no stranger to deadly cyclones--fifteen of the world's twenty deadliest tropical cyclones have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent was last year's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Aila as it made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border. Image credit: NASA.

Interview tonight on hurricanetrack.com
I'll be doing one of my periodic spiels on Internet radio tonight at 9pm EDT. Tune your browsers to www.hurricanetrack.com and listen in to my interview with host Mark Sudduth. There is also a live chat to participate in. Hurricane season starts Monday!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hahaguy:


He got banned


Oh wow.....I had no idea. What did he do?
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Quoting Weather456:
Whatever happened to MichealSTL?


He got banned
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Whatever happened to MichaelSTL?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting futuremet:


I doubt it, this system looks relatively small.


hence the phrase, "under the right conditions"
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


Yep, under that much wind shear, it is unlikely that anything can support deep convection near its core. On the other hand, that much wind shear can support MCS (under the right conditions) like the one in the Caribbean last week.


I doubt it, this system looks relatively small.
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Quoting Levi32:


That low is cold-core on the GFS, and besides wind shear of 30-50 knots will be dominating the gulf for the next several days.


Rain is the only benefit this system might bring; that is, if it doesn't die in the Gulf.
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Quoting Levi32:


That low is cold-core on the GFS, and besides wind shear of 30-50 knots will be dominating the gulf for the next several days.


Yep, under that much wind shear, it is unlikely that anything can support deep convection near its core. On the other hand, that much wind shear can support MCS (under the right baroclinic conditions) like the one in the Caribbean last week.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting futuremet:
GFS 18Z does show cyclogenesis occuring in the Gulf later this week, but I doubt it will be anything of much significance. It is merely a subterfuge.


That low is cold-core on the GFS, and besides wind shear of 30-50 knots will be dominating the gulf for the next several days.
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Quoting futuremet:
GFS 18Z does show cyclogenesis occuring in the Gulf later this week, but I doubt it will be anything of much significance. It is merely a subterfuge.


Havent look at the 18Z GFS as yet. I'll give it a 5% chance of development, the way things look now.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
91L is looking pretty good (except for firing convection).

I give it a 50-70% chance of becoming a TD or STD by tommorow or Friday.
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GFS 18Z does show cyclogenesis occuring in the Gulf later this week, but I doubt it will be anything of much significance. It is merely a subterfuge. Shear is expected to rapidly increase over the gulf within 24hrs from time. Since GFS shows cyclogenesis occurring in nearly 3 days from now, there is not much opportunity for this system to develop.
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can someone post a link on how to change my avatar? I can't find it. Thanks
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Texans only



Wednesday morning / 27 May 2009

Dear Texas CoCoRaHS Observer:

Find our new Texas CoCoRaHS newsletter, "Lone Star Roundup," for spring
2009.. now
online at... http://www.utexas.edu/depts/grg/kimmel/CoCoRaHS.pdf

The newsletter is in Adobe PDF form. If you need the free Adobe PDF
reader (software
needed to open it).. you can find it at...
http://www.adobe.com/products/reader/

I sincerely appreciate your daily reports on behalf of CoCoRaHS in
Texas. Your daily
reports, rain or not, are very important.

This is the first edition of our Texas newsletter. Please feel free to
pass along any of your observer
stories and/or pictures and I'll do everything I can to use them in the
next newsletter edition
this summer.

Again, thank you for everything you do for CoCoRaHS in Texas.

Sincerely,
Troy Kimmel
Texas State Coordinator
CoCoRaHS

--
Troy M. Kimmel, Jr.
Senior Lecturer, Studies in Weather and Climate
Manager, Weather and Climate Resource Center
Department of Geography and the Environment/University of Texas - Austin

Chief Meteorologist, KVET/KASE/KFMK Radio (Clear Channel), Austin, TX

Freelance Weekend/Relief Meteorologist, KEYE TV (CBS), Austin, TX

Owner/Meteorologist, KimCo Meteorological Services, Austin, TX

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Quoting 7544:
why no then what is the gfsx showing isnt that the texas blob ?
Link


That map is showing a precipitation maxima and no closed isobars, signifying thunderstorm convection associated with a possible low pressure area, not a closed cyclone.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Strong storms heading my way.

Link
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178. 7544
why no then what is the gfsx showing isnt that the texas blob ?
Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
Well vertical shear is expected to remain unfavorable through Saturday. I'm not really seeing the potential for this one for TC genesis but thunderstorms and rains is another story.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
i want to see something out of the blob coming from Texas.
According to the bloggers here it is supposed to be moving east in my direction, well if and when it gets here it should be Saturday I hope it doesn't mess up my Prom.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
do any models develop this blob in the gulf?


Nope in terms of potential ability for tropical cyclogenesis
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
174. 7544
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
do any models develop this blob in the gulf?


some

Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
Quoting Seastep:


Agree with the TD, but it is pretty windy over there atm.

See my gulf link in prior post. Plenty of stations reporting significant winds.


I'm seeing sustain winds no higher than 10 mph. But the gusts are higher.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
do any models develop this blob in the gulf?
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BBL.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Isn't it unusual for something to come off the coast of Texas and go east towards Florida/Cuba?!


I was going to ask the same thing! Anyone have any data supporting something like this previously?

Oh! Back for another hurricane season- hardly ever post but always read every season!
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Quoting Weather456:


agreed, still in the monitoring mode. In addition surface winds are relatively light


Agree with the TD, but it is pretty windy over there atm.

See my gulf link in prior post. Plenty of stations reporting significant winds.
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Quoting Seastep:
Good multiple buoy watching site for those that are interested:

Gulf

Main page to pick area


thanks
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Well folks....Surrounded by some nasty cells right now in Crawfordville, FL (25 miles south of Tallahassee) and going to navigate my way home............Have a good afternoon and hope nothing happens with the TX blob (looks like convection is already starting to wane)
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Good multiple buoy watching site for those that are interested:

Gulf

Main page to pick area
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Quoting Levi32:


I don't think there's near enough organized deep convection for them to upgrade it to TD.


agreed, still in the monitoring mode. In addition surface winds are relatively light
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Wow, an impressive spin, but where the heck are the thunderstorms?
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Morehead City, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Is there such a thing as recurve or is it just curve ?
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Quoting winter123:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Looks like a TD to me!! Waiting for 8pm....


I don't think there's near enough organized deep convection for them to upgrade it to TD.
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Looks like a TD to me!! Waiting for 8pm....
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1792
Fun blob watching.

I was watching some buoys and this one reported 41kt sustained and 48kt gust and then went offline.

Just an interesting obs to me. Blobs packing some winds. Any TX reports on winds that high?
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bbl, got yard work to do before that cloud moves in on my neighborhood
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Pensacola Dan, Glad I missed that one. This area is so weird, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN means 50% of P cola might see rain ....LOL
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Quoting intunewindchime:
PensacolaDan
what part of town got 3"? We got a sprinkle on the sw most part of the county....


Just North of Airport up 9th Ave. Winn Dixie and coupe other stores no power either. Most of it followed along I10 and just South. Scrambled around to disconnect electronics.
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Well it's been a long wait for the tropical season and everyone has withdrawl, any little thing to watch gets us excited. We are all warming up for action I guess. I hope we are all disappointed and there are no storms to watch...
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PensacolaDan
what part of town got 3"? We got a sprinkle on the sw most part of the county....
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91L is finally looking cycloney
but It's definitely suptropical and I think there isn't enought time until it recurves
we'll I can wait for 93L
anyone else think it's funny or ironic that in September the formation of a small tropical storm in the middle of the ocean wouldn't excited us at all, where as now we get hyped up over an invest that probably won't even form or effect land
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good evening
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Looks like we are off to the races early this year....
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Quoting presslord:
please check out the Portlight Blog...

Okay, I will Paul, thanks.
Working on writing a grant for United Way in Volusia Flagler counties right now. Their site for flood assistance can be linked from www.LiveUnitedinVolusiaFlagler.org
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Isn't it unusual for something to come off the coast of Texas and go east towards Florida/Cuba?!
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Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting 7544:
looks like most are saying here that once it gets it the gom the texas blob will gett ripped apart by shear but some models show it as a system heading to the se then east whos right we have wait and see tonight i guesss could this become 92l first ?


I was corrected earlier by 456 and Levi as to the issue of the TX Blob just being the result of upper level divergence associated with the frontal boundry....This sounds and looks about right and shear levels are not condusive if it slips any further south....However, and I am not sure if this blob is related to some of the model runs, but, if it is still there in some form (with sutained convection) tommorow afternoon, and it can keep from getting sheared apart, then it "could" qualify as disturbance.........On the other hand, it could be blown apart by tommorow morning...
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Rain for Canewarning :) Storms this week have been missing or dying before they reach me, but after 7.77" last week we are fine :)


No, I think we've had enough rain in Florida! It's funny how quickly things can change. A couple of weeks ago we'd beg for rain.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.