Disturbance 91L spins towards Cape Hatteras; Cyclone Aila toll at 180

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on May 27, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, is centered 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. While the storm does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity, it does have a well-developed circulation, and the spin of the system is readily apparent on long range radar animations out of Morehead City, North Carolina. The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Thursday afternoon, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development. The disturbance will track north or north-northeastward at 10 - 15 mph towards North Carolina's Outer Banks today, then get swept northeastwards out to sea on Thursday. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression, but an Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. If the system does develop, the current location of the heaviest thunderstorm activity in a band well removed from the center suggests that 91L would be classified as a subtropical depression. The Outer Banks of North Carolina can expect 20 - 25 mph winds and heavy rain from this system tonight and Thursday morning. In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Latest radar image from the Morehead City, NC radar.

Tropical Cyclone Aila death toll at 180
The year's deadliest tropical cyclone so far, Tropical Cyclone Aila, has killed at least 180 people in India and Bangladesh border region, according to the latest media reports. Aila hit the India/Bangladesh border region on May 25 as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane, bringing sustained winds of 65 - 75 mph and a 3 - 4 meter (10 - 13 foot) storm surge to the coast. Aila has left over 150,000 homeless in India and 500,000 in Bangladesh. The cyclone destroyed over 180,000 homes in Bangladesh--a severe blow for a region still recovering from the devastation wrought by Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Sidr of November 2007, which killed 3,500 people. The death toll form Aila will likely go much higher, as over 500 people are still missing. The Bay of Bengal is no stranger to deadly cyclones--fifteen of the world's twenty deadliest tropical cyclones have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent was last year's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Aila as it made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border. Image credit: NASA.

Interview tonight on hurricanetrack.com
I'll be doing one of my periodic spiels on Internet radio tonight at 9pm EDT. Tune your browsers to www.hurricanetrack.com and listen in to my interview with host Mark Sudduth. There is also a live chat to participate in. Hurricane season starts Monday!

Jeff Masters

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Someone do me a favor and pull the IR loop, whats the deal with that massive blow up of thunderstorms just off the coast of Louisiana?
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Notice they spelled Michael the wrong way...

i take offense to that :p
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he's bloggin' on another site....
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241

no prob
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RE:236. futuremet
Thanks. Good to see you here, futuremet.
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yep he has another site 456 i have talk with him a few times next time i see him i will ask him if i can give you that info
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239. beell
Quoting Chicklit:
Isn't it unusual for something to come off the coast of Texas and go east towards Florida/Cuba?!


Not too unusual given the position of the A/B high centered way out over the central ATL. And a cold front trying to push its way to the east. Surface flow and convergence running SW to NE across FL-with upper support from a fairly deep layer but gentle trough which seems to want to take up permanent residence over the eastern Gulf/Atlantic coast. GFS showing a broad 500mb trough off FL all week almost. The birthplace of 90L and 91L. Continued good blob watching!

Surface Chart Valid 12Z Fri


18ZGFS Valid 12Z Fri
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16651
According to Wikipedia, 253 people are dead from Aila, and over 500 more are missing. At least 650,000 have been made homeless. Also, Ontario recently had its first fatality from H1N1 flu, a man in his 40s from Toronto.
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Hi All, Ok i'll bite...12.52 May precip. My hometown Zephyrhills Fl. Nice pic Haha. Had them lookin ugly last night.
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
212. hahaguy - Wow!

213. 21N71W - Bloblettes - Love it.

Anyone
At what level does shear effect cyclonic potential? Mid level? Which shear map do you find most useful?
Thanking you in advance.


If mean tropical cyclones then, 850-200mb
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kinda sad
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Quoting IKE:


He got mad at me and I would agree with his thoughts.

He put me on ignore and vice versa.


I was in his ignore list too, after refuting many of his posts.
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Link

heres the correct spelling for stl's blog and it has been banned your wrong big fish
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Since the air was cooled, I thought there was not much life left in this storm. It came here with heavy rain, and 30+ mph gusts.
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Quoting Weather456:


I remember, it was a troll from back in the days.


Yep, so the question remains, where is MichaelSTL?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
230. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


Well, that's people get from defending pseudoscience lol


He got mad at me and I would agree with his thoughts.

He put me on ignore and vice versa.
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Quoting IKE:


Okay...yeah the original STL was banned from WU. GW debate made him difficult to talk with. He would get rude.


Well, that's people get for defending pseudoscience lol
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Quoting futuremet:
It was quite a storm hahaguy; the lightning shut my computer down.


The lightening bounced off the lake in that picture.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
227. IKE
Quoting Weather456:


I remember, it was a troll from back in the days.


Okay...yeah the original STL was banned from WU. GW debate made him difficult to talk with. He would get rude.
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Quoting hahaguy:
Took this about 20 minutes ago.



Nice pic
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Notice they spelled Michael the wrong way...


I remember, it was a troll from back in the days.
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It was quite a storm hahaguy; the lightning shut my computer down.
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223. IKE
Quoting hahaguy:


Now that's scary.


I was just fixing to pull over into that lane but thought about waiting because the heavy rain puddles that slower lane.

Good thing I waited. The man upstairs was watching out for me again.
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216. - just the kind of cloud I'd look for a waterspout - nice image.

206. - ;>) - Link

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Quoting Orcasystems:


Unlikely

Link


Notice they spelled Michael the wrong way...
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting IKE:


Had terrible lightning. I was driving on a 4 lane road. It was pouring...you couldn't see 20 feet in front of you. I was driving in the fast lane. In the other lane there was a shopping cart IN THE ROAD! The wind blew it into the highway. Not kidding. Scary.


lucky you didn't have a wreck... you guys be safe
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Quoting IKE:


Had terrible lightning. I was driving on a 4 lane road. It was pouring...you couldn't see 20 feet in front of you. I was driving in the fast lane. In the other lane there was a shopping cart IN THE ROAD! The wind blew it into the highway. Not kidding. Scary.


Now that's scary.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
218. IKE
Quoting hahaguy:


It wasn't as bad as it looked just a nice heavy rain shower.


Had terrible lightning. I was driving on a 4 lane road. It was pouring...you couldn't see 20 feet in front of you. I was driving in the fast lane. In the other lane there was a shopping cart IN THE ROAD! The wind blew it into the highway. Not kidding. Scary.
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217. IKE
Quoting 21N71W:

Hi Orca,
Yep once bitten , twice shy ...


Reminds me...once bitten, twice shy... :)
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Quoting IKE:


Looks rough. I saw clouds like that today here in Defuniak Springs,FL. Had a bad thunderstorm. Sunny now and 73 degrees.


It wasn't as bad as it looked just a nice heavy rain shower.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
212. hahaguy - Wow!

213. 21N71W - Bloblettes - Love it.

Anyone
At what level does shear effect cyclonic potential? Mid level? Which shear map do you find most useful?
Thanking you in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
214. IKE
Quoting hahaguy:
Took this about 20 minutes ago.



Looks rough. I saw clouds like that today here in Defuniak Springs,FL. Had a bad thunderstorm. Sunny now and 73 degrees.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I hope this year does not use you as an aiming point like everything did last year... you were in far to many of my graphics.

Hi Orca,
Yep once bitten , twice shy ...let me tell you Hannah and Ike in one week.... hopefully this year will be better but we have been living under continuous blobettes the last two weeks..rain and rain and rain and wind!
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Took this about 20 minutes ago.

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
211. IKE
Precipitation: 10.38in

May precip for my hometown.
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210. IKE
Summer returns to the Florida panhandle.....

Sunday and Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Highs 90 to 94. Lows 64 to 67.

Monday
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 90 to 94.


That should warm up those GOM water temps.
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Quoting 21N71W:


Turks and Caicos here, that would be great thanks



PR resident here, will be great!
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Quoting 21N71W:


Turks and Caicos here, that would be great thanks


I hope this year does not use you as an aiming point like everything did last year... you were in far to many of my graphics.
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Quoting Weather456:


Hey, I have to start issuing Caribbean outlooks, I had no idea so much Caribbean people visit this site. I got to much emails about what to expect across the caribbean when the updates exlude the region.

Could use some rain here for the aquifers.


Turks and Caicos here, that would be great thanks
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2004 predictions pretty much was thrown out...

On August 6, Dr. Gray announced he had revised his predictions slightly downwards, citing mild El Niño conditions, to 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 reaching Category 3.[4] Several days later, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 90% probability of above-to-near normal activity, but the same number of storms forecast.[5] A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 tropical storms, 4 to 8 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 of those reaching Category 3 strength.[6] The season ended up with 16 tropical depressions, 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes, placing it above all forecasts.
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AOI #1

AOI #2
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Quoting hahaguy:


Just saying what I've been hearing


Its amazing what you can learn by looking for yourself and not listening to others :)
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201. DDR
Quoting Weather456:


Hey, I have to start issuing Caribbean outlooks, I had no idea so much Caribbean people visit this site. I got to much emails about what to expect across the caribbean when the updates exlude the region.

Yes i've seen a few from trini,myself and pottery included,that would be nice,keep up the great work .
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Unlikely

Link


Just saying what I've been hearing
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
199. JRRP
in 2004 at this time of the year ... the wind shear was predicted to be above normal?
like this
Link
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Quoting DDR:
Hi everyone,hi 456,yet another sunny day,gfs shows ,moisture advecting over the windards over the weekend,can't wait!


Hey, I have to start issuing Caribbean outlooks, I had no idea so much Caribbean people visit this site. I got to much emails about what to expect across the caribbean when the updates exlude the region.

Could use some rain here for the aquifers.
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Quoting hahaguy:


He got banned


Unlikely

Link
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196. DDR
Hi everyone,hi 456,yet another sunny day,gfs shows moisture moving over the windwards over the weekend,can't wait!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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