Disturbance 91L spins towards Cape Hatteras; Cyclone Aila toll at 180

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on May 27, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, is centered 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. While the storm does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity, it does have a well-developed circulation, and the spin of the system is readily apparent on long range radar animations out of Morehead City, North Carolina. The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Thursday afternoon, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development. The disturbance will track north or north-northeastward at 10 - 15 mph towards North Carolina's Outer Banks today, then get swept northeastwards out to sea on Thursday. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression, but an Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. If the system does develop, the current location of the heaviest thunderstorm activity in a band well removed from the center suggests that 91L would be classified as a subtropical depression. The Outer Banks of North Carolina can expect 20 - 25 mph winds and heavy rain from this system tonight and Thursday morning. In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Latest radar image from the Morehead City, NC radar.

Tropical Cyclone Aila death toll at 180
The year's deadliest tropical cyclone so far, Tropical Cyclone Aila, has killed at least 180 people in India and Bangladesh border region, according to the latest media reports. Aila hit the India/Bangladesh border region on May 25 as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane, bringing sustained winds of 65 - 75 mph and a 3 - 4 meter (10 - 13 foot) storm surge to the coast. Aila has left over 150,000 homeless in India and 500,000 in Bangladesh. The cyclone destroyed over 180,000 homes in Bangladesh--a severe blow for a region still recovering from the devastation wrought by Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Sidr of November 2007, which killed 3,500 people. The death toll form Aila will likely go much higher, as over 500 people are still missing. The Bay of Bengal is no stranger to deadly cyclones--fifteen of the world's twenty deadliest tropical cyclones have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent was last year's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Aila as it made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border. Image credit: NASA.

Interview tonight on hurricanetrack.com
I'll be doing one of my periodic spiels on Internet radio tonight at 9pm EDT. Tune your browsers to www.hurricanetrack.com and listen in to my interview with host Mark Sudduth. There is also a live chat to participate in. Hurricane season starts Monday!

Jeff Masters

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Charleston, SC

lol, sm...I know the risks...like you do with surfing...Take as many precautions as possible and have fun right?
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That blob in the Gulf appears to be just that, a "blob". I can't locate any type of circulation on satellite imagery.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

3 days till winter, still got warm days but very cold nights. all last week it poured with rain. North of Sydney to the Queenland border on the coast got flooded.
Dont you need the rain?
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Aussie - 4 days straight of waves in the gulf last week -- true they were puny -- but... I got my rides... the low set up a nice wave machine
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Thanks beell...Was an amazing storm, and the first time I saw a true wall cloud. Was the second pic in that series.

Although I have nothing else to compare with, yep, it is a pretty cool place to live!
Where do you live SJ?
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Never realized that lightening was so far out front of storms until I took this pic HExpress. From the sounds of "bolts from the blue", it can be even further out.





Yes Indeed!!!! and if you have naughties in your closet... you could get selected to be "an example"
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Quoting TampaMishy:
I know! How is the weather on your end?

3 days till winter, still got warm days but very cold nights. all last week it poured with rain. North of Sydney to the Queenland border on the coast got flooded.
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Quoting hahaguy:

I think it's shift change time.
lol
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Quoting TampaMishy:
Exactly...it must be snack time?

I think it's shift change time.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
Thanks beell...Was an amazing storm, and the first time I saw a true wall cloud. Was the second pic in that series.

Although I have nothing else to compare with, yep, it is a pretty cool place to live!
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Quoting hahaguy:


Cricket....Cricket.
Exactly...it must be snack time?
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334. beell
Quoting StormJunkie:


Never realized that lightening was so far out front of storms until I took this pic HExpress. From the sounds of "bolts from the blue", it can be even further out.





Great catch, SJ! Earth is such an amazing place to live!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
Quoting surfmom:
WhooHOOO Tampa Mishy!!! LOL..... guess it's season
Yes it is! I love this time of year!
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Quoting TampaMishy:
Sure got quiet here


Cricket....Cricket.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
WhooHOOO Tampa Mishy!!! LOL..... guess it's season
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Sure got quiet here
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Quoting CaneWarning:


If the GFS is correct then we probably would.
Ugh
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Quoting TampaMishy:
Are we going to get a big downpour here this weekend in Tampa?


If the GFS is correct then we probably would.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaneWarning:


NO!!! We do not need any more rain.


It should end early next week when high pressure builds in.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


NO!!! We do not need any more rain.
Are we going to get a big downpour here this weekend in Tampa?
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:
That aforementioned progged shear profile (southern jet overhead), combined with a trough in the area and our famous surface instability, could make for some interesting weather for Florida this weekend. Maybe not tropical, but possibly severe. Also, when those forward sheared anvils arrive at the beach way ahead of the storm, the beach crowds need to look out for those lightning "bolts from the blue".


Never realized that lightening was so far out front of storms until I took this pic HExpress. From the sounds of "bolts from the blue", it can be even further out.



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Quoting Drakoen:
GFS forms a baroclinic low in the GOM on Sunday


NO!!! We do not need any more rain.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaneWarning:


You're moving?
Yes, just a few miles.
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Quoting floridafisherman:
wow its still pouring here in lee county where i live. i checked the nexrad and we have receieved 3-6 inches in an hrs time. nexrad is showing a current rainfall rate of almost 4 inches an hr.
Where is it heading?
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91L: Burst of convection holding steady over the LLCC. But i guess it's too weak to be a TD.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

The GOM blob is predicted to die but the "tampa storm" that hasn't developed yet, following right after it seems promising. Guess I'll check back in about 16 hours. :/
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Quoting TampaMishy:
Both! Just a few miles from where I'm at..Still Brandon


You're moving?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaneAddict:


After CaneAddict says something please do not reply.


Won't happen again.
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NexSat Loop,GOM
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Quoting Gulfsyed:


After a period use an uppercase letter to begin your next sentence.


Grate poynt!!!!,loL
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Quoting Gulfsyed:


After a period use an uppercase letter to begin your next sentence.


After CaneAddict says something please do not reply.
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Quoting CaneAddict:


What Cane? Me or Canewarning? Oh and where are ya moving to?
Both! Just a few miles from where I'm at..Still Brandon
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wow its still pouring here in lee county where i live. i checked the nexrad and we have receieved 3-6 inches in an hrs time. nexrad is showing a current rainfall rate of almost 4 inches an hr.
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Quoting CaneAddict:


Shear...not Sheer.


After a period use an uppercase letter to begin your next sentence.
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GOM IR loop
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Quoting TampaMishy:
Hi Cane!


What Cane? Me or Canewarning? Oh and where are ya moving to?
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That aforementioned progged shear profile (southern jet overhead), combined with a trough in the area and our famous surface instability, could make for some interesting weather for Florida this weekend. Maybe not tropical, but possibly severe. Also, when those forward sheared anvils arrive at the beach way ahead of the storm, the beach crowds need to look out for those lightning "bolts from the blue".
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Too bad STORMTOP isn't here. I bet he'd give us an update on the gulf blob.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
I hope we dont have a major thunderstorm here I am moving on Saturday
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Big Arse Gulf Storm....does anyone have a read on this storm it is huge but will probably die over night, this is not the low you guys are talking about is it...
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Hi Cane!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Mishy, Long time no see
I know! How is the weather on your end?
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Quoting stillwaiting:
if sheer relaxes over the eastern GOM,one of the impulses along the front could form a surface low or if the front stalls in the GOM,IMO..if sheer values remain the same nothing tropical can form...


Shear...not Sheer.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That is something that I have wondered as well.


Thank you. NHC doesnt do their job right.
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I favor a high chance of a good soaking in FL.

Not exactly what is needed...

Let's hope it stays that way bl, looks as if said blob will come close to the loop current.
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Quoting TampaMishy:
Hello everyone

Hey Mishy, Long time no see
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if sheer relaxes over the eastern GOM,one of the impulses along the front could form a surface low or if the front stalls in the GOM,IMO..if sheer values remain the same nothing tropical can form...
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Quoting TampaMishy:
Hello everyone


Hi.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
296. beell
Good to see you here also, SJ.
Shear looks to be pretty strong over the entire GOM after Thursday. Maybe on the ATL side-favorable.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
295. Skyepony (Mod)
Hey SJ~ Yeah not the usual twist. The CMC really holds off on any prefrontal blob & favored the frontal blob maybe developing East of FL & going NE. It didn't see this prefronal flare coming. I favor a high chance of a good soaking in FL.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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