Disturbance 91L spins towards Cape Hatteras; Cyclone Aila toll at 180

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on May 27, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, is centered 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. While the storm does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity, it does have a well-developed circulation, and the spin of the system is readily apparent on long range radar animations out of Morehead City, North Carolina. The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Thursday afternoon, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development. The disturbance will track north or north-northeastward at 10 - 15 mph towards North Carolina's Outer Banks today, then get swept northeastwards out to sea on Thursday. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression, but an Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. If the system does develop, the current location of the heaviest thunderstorm activity in a band well removed from the center suggests that 91L would be classified as a subtropical depression. The Outer Banks of North Carolina can expect 20 - 25 mph winds and heavy rain from this system tonight and Thursday morning. In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Latest radar image from the Morehead City, NC radar.

Tropical Cyclone Aila death toll at 180
The year's deadliest tropical cyclone so far, Tropical Cyclone Aila, has killed at least 180 people in India and Bangladesh border region, according to the latest media reports. Aila hit the India/Bangladesh border region on May 25 as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane, bringing sustained winds of 65 - 75 mph and a 3 - 4 meter (10 - 13 foot) storm surge to the coast. Aila has left over 150,000 homeless in India and 500,000 in Bangladesh. The cyclone destroyed over 180,000 homes in Bangladesh--a severe blow for a region still recovering from the devastation wrought by Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Sidr of November 2007, which killed 3,500 people. The death toll form Aila will likely go much higher, as over 500 people are still missing. The Bay of Bengal is no stranger to deadly cyclones--fifteen of the world's twenty deadliest tropical cyclones have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent was last year's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Aila as it made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border. Image credit: NASA.

Interview tonight on hurricanetrack.com
I'll be doing one of my periodic spiels on Internet radio tonight at 9pm EDT. Tune your browsers to www.hurricanetrack.com and listen in to my interview with host Mark Sudduth. There is also a live chat to participate in. Hurricane season starts Monday!

Jeff Masters

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Couple of 40-45 knt barbs... on a bad pass...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
377.
Thanks, SJ. Good to know he's doing well. Kinda based a character in a story I wrote on him. Good to know he's doing well.
He was going to come here for Ophelia; but then him and the wench ended up in the OBX ~) LOL.

Goodnight to all. Have fun!
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393. 7544
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Geez this blob is racing towards Florida in no time!By tomorrow it could be right off the west coast.


the texas blob is alomst the size of fla pinisular lol serious if this does somthing it could be trouble as it tracks east and thats even odd
Link

but then again stranger things have happen even with shear in the way
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6617
Quoting stillwaiting:
looking at the ramdis loop it sure looks like the gulf blob has a mid level circulation,if this holds until the morning this could be a suprise storm of the decade!!!!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/mflash-avn.html

Whoeveer said this cluster would die over water was very very wrong... I know i'll be watching the weaather channel when i get up in 8 hours. then after work in an other 8 hours. :/

Am i seeing things or is there outflow forming on all sides...
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
387... I think the shear makes it look like it is moving faster then it is.
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Evening sw, SW, and 456
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Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Pretty big drops in a short period...
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Geez this blob is racing towards Florida in no time!By tomorrow it could be right off the west coast.
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386. beell
bf!
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joking about the suprise storm of the decade,sheer is to high in the immediate are,IMO
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Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
looking at the ramdis loop it sure looks like the gulf blob has a mid level circulation,if this holds until the morning this could be a suprise storm of the decade!!!!
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Evening SW
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
378. BtnTx
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening Btn,

Thought the interview went well also...Was surprised that Mark did not seem to realize just how big the WU is

No WX web site is bigger & better than wunderground IMO. I am charter member since 1999!
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Evening SW

BFOTR, don't think he got to met school but last I heard he was doing fairly well. I never actually chased with him. He was going to come here for Ophelia; but then him and the wench ended up in the OBX ¿~)
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Sup Dubya?
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Thanks HK

Funny thing, I was reading through some of the olden day blogs...Never realized how long you have been around here...Very different blogosphere back then...


Yeah. lol. WU was a small town in the olden days. Been meaning to mention, and this seems like as good a time as any, I remember you went and chased an '05 Carolina storm with leftyy420. Don't remember the storm's name but I remember the photos. Once in awhile I wonder how he's doing and if he got to met school. Learned a lot from him back in those days, and from you and from others who are no longer here. Anyone ever hear from lefty?
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The still makes it look scary since you can't see how much the shear is ripping those clouds to the NW-ish.

bl, I agree with you, but was still kind of funny...
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372. beell
lol, SJ-it was a little trollish sounding and offensive to some I guess.
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That was unfortunate bl, always got a chuckle out of that handle.
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365. HurricaneKing

I am headed in the other direction. (Forgetting most of what I used to know - CRS/TMB). Congrats in advance on your anticipated continued success. Keep after it, you will get there.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
2005-08-16 21:04:18

That's great HK!


Thanks. This site has been a help in learning meteorology and especially my favorite part..... The tropics.
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367. beell
Not exactly sure here. Original nic was "boobless". Mid season of 2007, I think. Changed to "beell" (from "bl") in the fall.
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2005-08-16 21:04:18

That's great HK!
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Not long after you HK,
H I EXPRESS since
2005-10-13
Not a "scientist", but did stay at a popular chain hotel.


I'm not a meteorologist yet but I'm alot closer now then at my join date. I just finished my freshman year of college.
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Evening Btn,

Thought the interview went well also...Was surprised that Mark did not seem to realize just how big the WU is
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363. BtnTx
I thought the live interview of Dr Jeff Masters tonight on www.hurricanetrack.com was good
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Not long after you HK,
H I EXPRESS since
2005-10-13
Not a "scientist", but did stay at a popular chain hotel.
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hey all i take that nic rain send it too Ca
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Quoting TampaMishy:
Looks like nice weather on Sunday here


Actually, I don't see that blob holding together all the way here...It's likely that it will diminish to nothing by the time it reachs us in Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2005-07-05 21:00:12

My join date.
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Evening SSIG,

Came as a surprise to me when I saw HK that far back.

So you are in the future Aussie :~)
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening Aussie, or whatever time it is for you :~)

Amazing pics, thanks

Thanks, and its 12:30pm Thursday 28th of May
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Evening Aussie, or whatever time it is for you :~)

Amazing pics, thanks
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353. beell
Quoting surfmom:


Yes Indeed!!!! and if you have naughties in your closet... you could get selected to be "an example"


Sometimes you can get selected even with a clean closet, surfmom!
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photography god, umm, long way from it...

It was an afternoon shot...see bolt; click shutter...Just luck and persistence.
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Thanks HK

Funny thing, I was reading through some of the olden day blogs...Never realized how long you have been around here...Very different blogosphere back then...
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Never realized that lightening was so far out front of storms until I took this pic HExpress. From the sounds of "bolts from the blue", it can be even further out.





!!!!!

Are you a photography god? Also was this in the daytime or at night?
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
Quoting StormJunkie:


Never realized that lightening was so far out front of storms until I took this pic HExpress. From the sounds of "bolts from the blue", it can be even further out.





The "bolts from the blue" are positive lightning from the anvil. Normal lightning has a negative charge while anvil lightning is positive and alot more powerful.
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Quoting CaneAddict:
That blob in the Gulf appears to be just that, a "blob". I can't locate any type of circulation on satellite imagery.
Looks like nice weather on Sunday here
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Quoting TampaMishy:
Dont you need the rain?

we do but not all at once
This is way to much

Flooding in Uralba st, Lismore, Yamba, NSW.

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Quoting surfmom:
Aussie - 4 days straight of waves in the gulf last week -- true they were puny -- but... I got my rides... the low set up a nice wave machine

did you see the pic i posted of surfing in Sydney Harbour


whats left of North Narrabeen Beach in Sydndey after being pounded by big seas & high tides linked to the weather disaster unfolding in the states North


Surfers leave the beaches to experience the big waves in Sydney Harbour, due the to wild weather.
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Charleston, SC

lol, sm...I know the risks...like you do with surfing...Take as many precautions as possible and have fun right?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.