Disturbance 91L spins towards Cape Hatteras; Cyclone Aila toll at 180

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on May 27, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, is centered 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. While the storm does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity, it does have a well-developed circulation, and the spin of the system is readily apparent on long range radar animations out of Morehead City, North Carolina. The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Thursday afternoon, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development. The disturbance will track north or north-northeastward at 10 - 15 mph towards North Carolina's Outer Banks today, then get swept northeastwards out to sea on Thursday. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression, but an Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. If the system does develop, the current location of the heaviest thunderstorm activity in a band well removed from the center suggests that 91L would be classified as a subtropical depression. The Outer Banks of North Carolina can expect 20 - 25 mph winds and heavy rain from this system tonight and Thursday morning. In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Latest radar image from the Morehead City, NC radar.

Tropical Cyclone Aila death toll at 180
The year's deadliest tropical cyclone so far, Tropical Cyclone Aila, has killed at least 180 people in India and Bangladesh border region, according to the latest media reports. Aila hit the India/Bangladesh border region on May 25 as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane, bringing sustained winds of 65 - 75 mph and a 3 - 4 meter (10 - 13 foot) storm surge to the coast. Aila has left over 150,000 homeless in India and 500,000 in Bangladesh. The cyclone destroyed over 180,000 homes in Bangladesh--a severe blow for a region still recovering from the devastation wrought by Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Sidr of November 2007, which killed 3,500 people. The death toll form Aila will likely go much higher, as over 500 people are still missing. The Bay of Bengal is no stranger to deadly cyclones--fifteen of the world's twenty deadliest tropical cyclones have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent was last year's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Aila as it made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border. Image credit: NASA.

Interview tonight on hurricanetrack.com
I'll be doing one of my periodic spiels on Internet radio tonight at 9pm EDT. Tune your browsers to www.hurricanetrack.com and listen in to my interview with host Mark Sudduth. There is also a live chat to participate in. Hurricane season starts Monday!

Jeff Masters

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Lots of winds.... no organised circulation..
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Another more powerfull blob seems to be coming of texas!!!!!
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HEY hEY hEY look at 91L not bad this morning
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Quoting Vortex95:
497. Do you know if they waves from this reach Fla?


no no i really don't think so
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Quoting Vortex95:
497. Do you know if they waves from this reach Fla?


They said less then 100 miles... so I have my doubts...

(CNN) -- A powerful earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.1, was reported off the coast of Honduras early Thursday, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

The National Weather Service placed the central American country, Belize and Guatemala under a tsunami watch, but later lifted it. There were no immediate reports of damage or injuries.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
So which Blob are we watching the most?
Blob #1 the first to leave Texas toward Florida.. or Blob #2, which appears to be doing the same thing?


AOI #1

AOI #2
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
There is a possibility of a local tsunami that could affect coasts located usually no more than 100 kilometers from the earthquake epicenter, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said on its Web site. "widespread destructive tsunami threat does not exist".

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Tropical Update/New Caribbean Outlook

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Powerful earthquake strikes off Honduras
Article from: AAP

From correspondents in Washington

May 28, 2009

AN earthquake of 7.1 magnitude has struck northeast of Roatan in Honduras.
The quake that hit 64km northeast of Roatan, Islas de la Bahia, had a shallow depth of 10 km, the US Geological Survey said.

A tsunami watch was in effect for Honduras and Belize, Guatemala, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre said.

The quake, which struck at 6.24pm (AEST), was originally reported to have a 7.4 magnitude.

Roatan is large Caribbean resort area popular for its scuba diving, snorkelling and dolphin watching. One hotel, Anthony's Key, is well known.

There was no immediate report of damage
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91L looks a lot better than before with some convection firing up.

Now i give it a 40-60% chance of becoming a STD or TD.
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91L looks a lot better but I think it's to late for it to become ana
where's the next blob to watch, if it isn't the one in the gulf
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91L Link
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Quoting Chicklit:
Yes, it's 2:30 a.m. and I'm still awake due to finishing up a grad school assignment...fun! Anyhow, what is going on in the Gulf?! (probably won't be awake long enough to get the answer but will check back in the later a.m.)


A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) developed from upper-level diffluence yesterday evening. Nothing at the surface, however, and certainly nothing tropical.
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Yes, it's 2:30 a.m. and I'm still awake due to finishing up a grad school assignment...fun! Anyhow, what is going on in the Gulf?! (probably won't be awake long enough to get the answer but will check back in the later a.m.)
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Nite
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I dont know what happened to the rest of my comment but what I said is,that is exactly what I like about this website.I am sure if that is a crazy post it would be exposed. That's my only concern is people are so afraid to say something that they don't post. I realize that if a hurricane is truly threatening we need to shut up and let the Doc. and a handful of people conthttp://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/commhttp://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/co mment.html?entrynum=1230#comment_475ent.html?entrynum=1230#comment_475rol the blog.
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Hurricane thanks for that tornadocane link. That may very well be what we have, or there may very well be a lot of egg on some peoples faces. All this knowledge people bring to this site is what I truly like.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Hurricane nice link on tornadocane those radar images are cool along with the explanation. That's exsatinaly


It was wikipedia so I was a little scared to post it.
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Hurricane nice link on tornadocane those radar images are cool along with the explanation. That's exsatinaly
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Link

This loop is interesting. There is a lot of upper level rotation off the east coast. The little ull off of Georgia is interesting. It looks like it's slowing down waiting for the front/ gulf blob.
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Night gordy...I am waiting for the next buoy readings in about 15 minutes and then I am out too.

Guess we will see what this is tomorrow morning...

HK - lmao at the Landphoon...What an odd word...
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Last comment StormJunkie. If that's not the signature of storm why do they draw them that why. I know looks can be deceiving but that maybe the surprise of the season.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Continues to "look" suspect imvho....


I think it would look like a tornadocane if we could see it with a radar. Link
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I think your right hurricane its tiny on the water vapor but I think you can see the rotation, which you don't often see unless its somewhat vigorous.
But it's still maybe interesting in fl. tomorrow in the mcc or whatever doesn't fall apart. I'm out. Goodnight.
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Continues to "look" suspect imvho....
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Quoting gordydunnot:
The NHC water vapor looks interesting. That's a big system in the gulf, Fla. will be wet sometime tomorrow. Also on the same loop more interesting is the small low off N.C. it looks so symmetrical and seems to be saying don't forget me.


I honestly think at this very moment 91L is a td. Only catch is it hasn't been this organized long enough. By the time it would meet the criteria it'll probably be swept into the front and gone.
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The NHC water vapor looks interesting. That's a big system in the gulf, Fla. will be wet sometime tomorrow. Also on the same loop more interesting is the small low off N.C. it looks so symmetrical and seems to be saying don't forget me.
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Squall line in the gulf.

Now being shown as a squall line in the gulf.

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Looking at the Funktop what ever it is looks like its heading for Tallahassee. Or Cedar Key
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Hey, is it me or is there a low that's trying to make it's way into the "blob" or MCC?



In the wind chart, south of the panhandle is what looks like a low type formation. Also, when you look at the IR loop of the gulf, you can see a group of clouds heading for the "blob". Am I just crazy or is there something to what I see?
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Sorry ,Levi I wasn't directing my comment towards you in particular. Your right that is the fun of the blog. I just dont like when people start of with condescending statements.
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Quoting Levi32:


I believe Hurricane Gustav formed from an MCC of sorts, an overgrown thunderstorm I called it, but I was out of town during his formation so I may be wrong, i only got to see one sat image of him during his early days.


Gustav originated from a tropical wave, try Hurricane Danny 1997
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Levi you are right but sometimes I think the blog goes a little to far with I am the tropical expert flowed by ,no your not, followed by I know I am, but what are you. I wasn't necessarily talking about the dead toll but overall which was the more significant weather system.There was almost no loss of life in Andrew but I don't think anyone would measure the storm on that bases.


Um well we weren't arguing about who knew more than who, like I said it was a healthy debate but I'm sorry if I offended anybody at all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26452
Quoting StormJunkie:
So Levi,why am likely misinterpreting the W wind and sudden pressure rise here? It should be on the S side of the heaviest convection


Judging by the coordinates of the buoy the center of the MCC is just about due north of it, which would mean that it's starting to pass the buoy and therefore the pressure should be rising like it is.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26452
Imagine if it was august with no shear how fast that blob could have intensified.
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Levi you are right but sometimes I think the blog goes a little to far with I am the tropical expert flowed by ,no your not, followed by I know I am, but what are you. I wasn't necessarily talking about the death toll but overall which was the more significant weather system.There was almost no loss of life in Andrew but I don't think anyone would measure the storm on that bases.
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Quoting Weather456:
Levi is correct. We cannot based development on a MCC that formed along the front over Texas and propgate westward. If conditions were right, MCC vorticies can and do develop into TC but only under perfect conditions.


I believe Hurricane Gustav formed from an MCC of sorts, an overgrown thunderstorm I called it, but I was out of town during his formation so I may be wrong, i only got to see one sat image of him during his early days.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26452
Levi is correct. We cannot based development on a MCC that formed along the front over Texas and propgate westward. If conditions were right, MCC vorticies can and do develop into TC but not in this case.
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So Levi,why am likely misinterpreting the W wind and sudden pressure rise here? It should be on the S side of the heaviest convection
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I shall put your mind at ease once again =P

No 850mb vorticity!

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Still "looks" suspect...
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Quoting gordydunnot:
You guys are right I watched the system last week in the Caribbean, I'll still say these systems maybe more interesting than a 90 or91L that had little chance of developing either. The bottom line is obviously the system in the Caribbean was much more damaging. Sometime you guys sound like lawyers, willing to argue over the mundane, past what is important. My editorial for the night. May the good weather be yours.


That's what this blog is for lol. I like healthy debate on things like this. Not ignoring potential damage it could do, Florida doesn't need more rain, but this isn't Haiti we're talking about. People aren't going to die and Florida can handle it, although it is a bummer after the soaking 90L did.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26452
You guys are right I watched the system last week in the Caribbean, I'll still say these systems maybe more interesting than a 90 or91L that had little chance of developing either. The bottom line is obviously the system in the Caribbean was much more damaging. Sometime you guys sound like lawyers, willing to argue over the mundane, past what is important. My editorial for the night. May the good weather be yours.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.