Cyclone Aila kills at least 120 in India, Bangaldesh; 91L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on May 26, 2009

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The year's deadliest tropical cyclone so far, Tropical Cyclone Aila, hit the India/Bangladesh border region on May 25 as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Aila brought sustained winds of 65 - 75 mph at landfall, and a 3 - 4 meter (10 - 13 foot) storm surge to coast of eastern India and western Bangladesh. Approximately 150,000 were left homeless In India, and at least 45 people were killed, many of them in the Kolkata (Calcutta) area. Damage was heavy in the city, which is India's second largest, with a population of 7.8 million. In Bangladesh, at least 89 are dead and ten of thousands homeless. The death toll will likely go higher, as over 100 people are missing in Bangladesh. The Bay of Bengal is no stranger to deadly cyclones--fifteen of the world's twenty deadliest tropical cyclones have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent was last year's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Aila as it made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Aila began as a "monsoon depression"--a large cyclonic disturbance that formed within the advancing Southwest Monsoon. The monsoon depression filled the entire Bay of Bengal, then gradually intensified between May 23 and 25 to the threshold of Category 1 hurricane strength. Since Aila started as a monsoon depression, it was a huge storm, with an eye over 100 miles in diameter. The storm helped pull the welcome rains of the Southwest Monsoon into India and Bangladesh a week ahead of normal (Figure 2). For reasons we don't fully understand, tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean are very predictable using computer models. Dr. Peter Webster of Georgia Tech was predicting the formation of Aila ten days in advance.


Figure 2. Progress of the Southwest Monsoon over India this week was aided by Cyclone Aila. Image credit: India Meteorology Department.

Disturbance 91L forms near North Carolina
An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, has formed a few hundred miles southeast of North Carolina. The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur over the next 24 - 36 hours. The disturbance will track northwards towards North Carolina's Outer Banks over the next 24 - 36 hours, then get swept northeastwards out to sea. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression. However, the storm should bring winds of 20 - 25 mph and heavy rain to North Carolina's Cape Hatteras on Wednesday. An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system on Wednesday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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497. CycloneBoz
7:52 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
The final test of the live webcam and remote hurricane weather station is progressing nicely. The test will end at approximately 8 PM MDT...so you still have time to see the birds, how fast they move...and how this system captures it all.

The system has been stable all day long with only a small and expected hiccup early on this morning.

Since then, we've had uninterrupted streaming of live video with amazing frame rates [29.97 max - 29.89 avg.]

It has been a pleasure putting this system together for you all.

When it fires back up, it will be in an area projected for a hurricane landfall.

CycloneOz---
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 217
496. IKE
1:47 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
495. IKE
1:39 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
494. Skyepony (Mod)
1:39 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
leftovers~ He must be talking about Erin. Most wood frames here made it through worse in 2004. Huricanes sound way scarier from in a wood frame.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39084
493. IKE
1:36 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting ChrisDcane:
The NHC hasn't even declared it a "91L" yet


Did you ever look at their website?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
492. IKE
1:35 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting NEwxguy:
Good morning,all. No one really expected much out of 91L did they?


I didn't.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
810 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

CORRECTED TO ADD PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS IS LOCATED
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE
SYSTEM HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
REACHING THE COLDER OCEAN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10-15 MPH...THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...AND AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT. SEE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
491. Skyepony (Mod)
1:34 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
A majority of model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region show that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through the remainder of 2009

The majority of model forecasts are statistacal & don't look at the heat & the depth that runs in the water. Scroll over T-depth anomily here.


The lesser numbered dynamical models that take all the observations into consideration are screaming El NiNo comith.


This past week we also hit the +.5 threashold. 6 more weeks folling this trend & we are in an offical El Nino. Good chance July's monthly (I think the 9th) will declare we are in offical El Nino.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39084
490. stillwaiting
1:34 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
This will make you laugh!!!!,something to do until TC season offically starts,Squirrel fishing!!!,lolLink
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
489. NEwxguy
1:28 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
Good morning,all. No one really expected much out of 91L did they?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15970
488. nrtiwlnvragn
1:28 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


NHC does not declare it 91L Navy does


Not true.


From the 2009 National Hurricane Operations Plan:

2.3. DOD Responsibilities. The DOD will:

Initiate, monitor, and update satellite invest areas on the tropical cyclone satellite websites provided by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Monterey, California. TPC/NHC and CPHC will coordinate with JTWC on the initiation of desired invest areas and will provide JTWC numbers for invest areas as required.

Navy's responsibility is to provide the satellite data, NHC initiates the invest.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11305
487. Orcasystems
1:17 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
486. stillwaiting
1:14 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
Oz:looks great!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
485. muddertracker
1:04 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
1999, not 2007.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
484. muddertracker
1:03 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
In loving memory of those lost May 27, 2007, Jarrell, TX. Rest in peace little ones.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
482. TampaSpin
12:48 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
Morning everyone..........91L never really stood a chance.........
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
480. CycloneOz
12:40 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
'mornin' all! :)

The Remote Hurricane Station webcam is currently conducting one of its final tests.

Today, the station is configured exactly as it would be in the field. It is being powered by dual, deep-cycle batteries and the connectivity is being provided by a VerizonWireless broadband card.

So there it is. I have a 5 gig per month limit on the card and by the end of the day, I should have used between 2.5 and 3 gig.

The webcam is back on the birds, and I've added humming bird feeders to the shot.

Have a great day! :)

CycloneOz----
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4031
478. IKE
12:29 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
GFDL and HWRF haven't run on 91L in awhile. From the looks of it, it could be RIP soon.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
476. IKE
12:00 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting ChrisDcane:


WOW IKE Thats navy if u know how to read I said NHC not Navy


I know what you said and yes, I can read.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
475. WxLogic
11:56 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
474. ChrisDcane
11:37 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
GO MAGIC
472. ChrisDcane
11:37 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


NHC does not declare it 91L Navy does

ok then "MY BAD" just rememmber it starts in the NHC and it ends with the NHC.
471. MahFL
11:35 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
The US cable news stations are very bad at reporting World news, unless its Isreal.
Also the fact that a cat1 cyclone can cause so many deaths shows you the people live in a flat area and have no advanced warning and/or places to shelter, i.e. its a 3rd world county.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
470. Thundercloud01221991
11:34 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting ChrisDcane:


WOW IKE Thats navy if u know how to read I said NHC not Navy


NHC does not declare it 91L Navy does
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
469. ChrisDcane
11:33 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Link


WOW IKE Thats navy if u know how to read I said NHC not Navy
468. IKE
11:32 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting ChrisDcane:
The NHC hasn't even declared it a "91L" yet


Link


Sickly...........

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
466. ChrisDcane
11:29 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
The NHC hasn't even declared it a "91L" yet
465. Thundercloud01221991
11:27 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting DestinJeff:


"xtrp has it headed right over my house. it has been dennis in 05 that we had anything close, so i feel like we ARE do"


xtrap means nothing right now it is expected to curve out to sea
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
463. ChrisDcane
11:26 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting all4hurricanes:
91L looks dry unless it get some convection soon this thing won't form at all

kind of depressing


What did u expect its still May and its not very favorable for developement right now

461. Thundercloud01221991
11:18 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
uh oh

North Korea not bound by 1953 truce
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
459. nchurricane
10:45 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
i know there is not much to it but look at the spin on my radar
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 87
458. IKE
10:38 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Yeah 91L looks almost naked. Not sure there's much left of it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
457. TayTay
10:31 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
It's dead.
456. Hurricane4Lex
10:27 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Hi all long time huh

so far I'm liking this if the Atlantic 09 season is like this till New Years I'll take it =)

I agree I extremely doubt 91L is going to do anything (by that I mean is it even going to soak down the outerbanks like 90L did for Mississipi, Louisana, Alabama, and Florida?)
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 658
455. Cavin Rawlins
10:22 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Good Morning,

Tropical Invest 91L
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
454. Stormchaser2007
10:21 AM GMT on May 27, 2009

.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
453. Stormchaser2007
10:18 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:

If you didn't notice, the picture was taken on Saturday!

Right now, I give 91L a 40-60% chance of becoming a TD or STD by Friday.


It doesnt have until Friday. It'll be out to sea by then. If 91L cant develop some convection in the next 6 hours then it'll be stripped of its invest status.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
452. all4hurricanes
10:13 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Sorry but It still looks bad today

This was actually Tuesday

This one is today

still pretty sickly
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2375
451. hurricanemaniac123
10:04 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting all4hurricanes:
91L looks dry unless it get some convection soon this thing won't form at all

kind of depressing

If you didn't notice, the picture was taken on Saturday!

Right now, I give 91L a 40-60% chance of becoming a TD or STD by Friday.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
450. all4hurricanes
9:53 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
91L looks dry unless it get some convection soon this thing won't form at all

kind of depressing
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2375
449. futuremet
8:12 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
MJO pulses are expected to be at their peak during during early June. This is congruous with the GFS' forecast of tropical cyclogenesis in the SW Caribbean around the same time frame. This is quite reasonable compared to the GFS' forecast las t week, which bombogenesis at the SE gulf between late May and June 5.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
448. Levi32
6:20 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Yeah....about the only thing I will continue to keep an eye on is if the GFS continues to forecast a lifting north of the subtropical jetstream in 2 weeks.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
447. HurricaneKing
6:02 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Quoting Levi32:
Just thought I'd pop in and give some late-night hype to whoever likes to jump on things like this ;)

GFS 384-hour Carribean hurricane:



I've seen it. It's been on the model for a couple of days. The GFS keeps it at 384hours and it hasn't moved foward in time on the model. Thus I believe it's a ghost storm as of right now.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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