90L comes close to being the season's first named storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:30 PM GMT on May 23, 2009

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The large extratropical storm (90L) that has been pounding Florida, the Bahamas, and Haiti this week with heavy rain and high surf has moved ashore over Mississippi. Last night and this morning, the storm put on an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorm activity and came close to becoming a subtropical or tropical depression. Winds at the Fort Morgan, AL station were 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, and winds at Dauphin Island, Alabama coastal station were sustained at 39 mph, gusting to 48 mph at between 8am and 10am EDT this morning. While these winds were in excess of the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm force, both measurements were taken at elevations higher than the international wind measurement standard of ten meters, so the top measured winds of 90L were actually slightly less than tropical storm force. Had 90L spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm.

The circulation around 90L continues to mean rain for Florida, but the rains will be lessening today. Rainfall amounts as high as 28 inches were measured this week in Northern Florida at Brunnell. Rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches have accumulated along the Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida Panhandle coasts from 90L so far (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Mobile, AL radar.

There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, so have a great weekend, and I'll have a new blog post by Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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That's good we could use a 2 week break.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Sorry Aqua that was a pretty big post with all those pics lol.

Basically we're more similar to 2004 than we have been over the past couple years, but it's not near as extreme of a pattern setting up as it was in 2004. The threat to Florida and the SE coast will be bigger this year because of developments close to home, rather than long-track storms. Most storms coming off Africa will likely recurve or shear apart more often than not this year.
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12z GFS at 384 hours shows that the shear wont quit.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic"
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Quoting aquak9:
and while I'm at it, how does this year compare with where we were at in '04, at this same time?

Guess that's what I'm really trying to figure out, without sounding alarmist.


As far as El Nino goes, we're pretty close. 2004 went from neutral to weak El Nino by the end of the hurricane season.

2004 SST anomalies May 23rd:



2009 May 22nd:




The Bermuda High at this time in 2004 was also stronger than normal and further west, but more so than it is right now.

2004 Means May 1-20:



2004 anomalies May 1-20:

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lopa, yeah I'm usually treading lightly in here. Ni harm, no foul.

Just trying to get my main question answered- where do compare, now vs '04, at this time?
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144. JRRP
extreme ??
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Is there any data on where the Walker Circulation is or do they estimate it?
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Shear in the Caribbean is having a hard time staying even close to climatology; it is the reason why none of the long-range computer forecast model show development over the next 2 weeks.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Good to see you Extreme.

I wouldnt be surprised at all to see a weak El nino this year.


Nice to see you too. Agreed.
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Quoting Drakoen:



Pretty impressive pulse there. Seems to be doing good in the EPAC.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ITCZ seems to be active in the Eastern Pacific.


Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Quoting CycloneOz:


I really like this abacast.com streaming service. It's windows-friendly and utilizes Windows Media Encoder as the user interface.

One of the settings is the ability to archive the stream. I've got a really cool portable 120 gig USB powered HD that is currently hooked to the Dell Mini-9. I've been archiving the stream since the get-go.

Right now...(using gotomypc.com to see the Dell Mini-9 within the black box outside), I can see that I've got a 400KB .wmv file of 3:15 minutes of stream. Nice!


Cool, make sure you have some type of peer to peer connection when you need it. Don't count on service being there under certain conditions.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
ITCZ seems to be active in the Eastern Pacific.
EDIT: It appears that the easternmost area is a tropical wave. Link


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136. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
you're welcome
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Quoting aquak9:
Also, even with a quick turn to ElNino, will it really affect Season™ that quickly?

Doesn't it take a while for the oceans/atmosphere to respond?

These are not personal attacks; just looking for info here.


Lol I know I been off the boards for awhile has there been some fighting again on the boards while I was away?
There is no need to defend yourself or explain yourself if I was wrong and you corrected me I thank you for it,after all this is what the board is for..
;=)

Thanks to everyone here for giving me the links I need to start over and bookmark them again..
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
oh and Levi 98B is a depression, The Joint Typhoon Warning Center doesn't issue advisories until winds are at 35 knots or greater.


Oh that's right I forgot about that. Thanks.
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Quoting aquak9:
and while I'm at it, how does this year compare with where we were at in '04, at this same time?

Guess that's what I'm really trying to figure out, without sounding alarmist.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
132. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
oh and Levi 98B is a depression, The Joint Typhoon Warning Center doesn't issue advisories until winds are at 35 knots or greater.
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Quoting lopaka001:


Good to see you again Storm thanks for the input..


Good to see you too! Feel free to ask questions. Allot of knowledgeable people here now.
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Quoting Ossqss:


Hey Oz, don't overlook you can usually adapt an external HD (USB) for saving video capture if necessary. Kinda a back up if you will. Redundant senarios can't hurt in that environment. Not sure of your setup. L8R All
:)


I really like this abacast.com streaming service. It's windows-friendly and utilizes Windows Media Encoder as the user interface.

One of the settings is the ability to archive the stream. I've got a really cool portable 120 gig USB powered HD that is currently hooked to the Dell Mini-9. I've been archiving the stream since the get-go.

Right now...(using gotomypc.com to see the Dell Mini-9 within the black box outside), I can see that I've got a 400KB .wmv file of 3:15 minutes of stream. Nice!
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From the latest dynamic model consensus there could very well be a weak or even moderate El Nino develop. The chance for El Nino is only very slightly lower than the chance for neutral conditions.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Non-La nina and Non-El nino is considered neutral conditions with either warm or cool biases.


Good to see you again Storm thanks for the input..
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I am in Puerto Rico and those graphics that you posted increased my interest.My question is,what is PWAT?


Precipitable water. It relates to the column of moisture between the surface and upper levels if all of it were to be released to the surface. Basically we are looking at precipitation paths and implications.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
It does take some time for the atmosphere to respond to the changes in the ocean, but some of the affects are already beginning to be felt around the world.
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Latest predictions re. ENSO say neutral for about 6 months, i.e. most of the season, with possibly a swing towards El Nino by the end of the year. Thing is, neutral phase can be pretty bad in the ATL basin.
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and while I'm at it, how does this year compare with where we were at in '04, at this same time?

Guess that's what I'm really trying to figure out, without sounding alarmist.
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123. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Summary: Tropical Pacific warms as El Niño risk increases.

Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral, although recent trends are consistent with the very early stages of a developing El Niño. These will continue to be monitored very closely during the next few months. The equatorial Pacific Ocean has continued to warm over the past few weeks and the SOI has fallen rapidly to an approximate 30-day value of −7; the value for April was +9. Also, the Trade winds have remained weaker than average across most of the Pacific.

---
source Bureau of Meteorology
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El Nino 2009
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121. mobal
Just a small report from Mobile.....No damage seen, a non event here....
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Quoting extreme236:


Wouldn't rule out one starting up later this year.


Good to see you Extreme.

I wouldnt be surprised at all to see a weak El nino this year.
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Quoting Drakoen:
June PWAT means from the CFS. Implications of active weather in the Bahamas and around the Greater Antilles.


July:


I am in Puerto Rico and those graphics that you posted increased my interest.My question is,what is PWAT?
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Neutral.

We still haven't swung over to the "warm" side of the scale yet.
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Also, even with a quick turn to ElNino, will it really affect Season™ that quickly?

Doesn't it take a while for the oceans/atmosphere to respond?

These are not personal attacks; just looking for info here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
nothing personal, lopa. Just trying to determine if anything non-LaNina is considered ElNino.

I really thought we had entered neutral, so without any proof, I will leave it to the better minds on this blog to set me straight.


Non-La nina and Non-El nino is considered neutral conditions with either warm or cool biases.
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98B should be a TD. QuikScat shows a nice closed circulation with 30-knot winds. It still has some work to do to get organized before significant intensification can occur. The COC is currently located under the northern edge of the southern blob of convection. There are significant areas of deep convection both north and south of the center, but they need to consolidate more over the center and organize into bands before this thing can ramp up.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
We're not in an El Nino event. Refer to Stormchaser's above post.


Wouldn't rule out one starting up later this year.
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Quoting aquak9:
nothing personal, lopa. Just trying to determine if anything non-LaNina is considered ElNino.

I really thought we had entered neutral, so without any proof, I will leave it to the better minds on this blog to set me straight.


Oh no nothing personal taken I wasn't sure myself that is why I ask..
I just read this page which indicates a neutral for the rest of 2009.

Still this is a very wet May for Florida and hopefully it might be good news down the road..
At least I don't have to smell the smoke anymore from the fires!
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Quoting CycloneOz:
I just hit the 3-hour mark on video streaming without interruption. This is looking very very good for when it's go-time here at wunderground.


Hey Oz, don't overlook you can usually adapt an external HD (USB) for saving video capture if necessary. Kinda a back up if you will. Redundant senarios can't hurt in that environment. Not sure of your setup. L8R All
:)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
nothing personal, lopa. Just trying to determine if anything non-LaNina is considered ElNino.

I really thought we had entered neutral, so without any proof, I will leave it to the better minds on this blog to set me straight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We're not in an El Nino event. Refer to Stormchaser's above post.
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Quoting lopaka001:
Hello All,
Now that we are in a El Nino event

More like neutral with a cool bias.
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According to the blog entry from Jeff Masters we are in El Nino event.

I lost all my computers in a fire last year so I don't have all my links anymore to see the data..
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I just hit the 3-hour mark on video streaming without interruption. This is looking very very good for when it's go-time here at wunderground.
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Good to see you to K8e!

Afternoon haha
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101. lopaka001
Hello All,
Now that we are in a El Nino event are they going to revise the list on active storms this year to be less or more?

we're in an ElNino event??

Was neutral just an overnight event?
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104. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
DEPRESSION BOB02-2009
23:30 PM IST May 23 2009
======================================

Subject: Depression over west central & adjoining east central Bay of Bengal and cyclone alert for West Bengal coast.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB02-2009 over west central Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and lays over west central and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal near 17.0N 88.5E, or about 430 kms southeast of Paradip, 530 kms south-southeast of Sagar Island and 590 kms south-southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.

Satellite imagery indicates persistant organized convection. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection observed over area between 11.0N 18.5N and west of 90.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C around the system.

Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is around 15-20 knots. The system lies very close to the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation over east central Bay of Bengal located to the east-northeast of the system. There is a feeble upper tropospheric trough in westerlies roughly running along 80.0E to the north of 200N. Sea surface temperatures are also favorable for intensification at it is 0.50 to 1.00C above normal. MAjority of NWP models also suggest intensification of the system and landfall over West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a near northerly direction and cross West Bengal-Bangladesh coast near 89.0E (about 100 kms east of Sagar Island) between 1200 UTC and 1500 UTC on monday May 25th.
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Quoting Ossqss:
Wow, things have slowed here, 50 posts took about 10 minutes yesterday. Be well all, Hockey night in Bradenton. Go Pens !






Looks like it will be this way all weekend. No invest and plus Memorial Day Weekend.
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THE NAM/CANADIAN REASONABLY
CAPTURE SOME OF THE CURRENT DETAIL OBSERVED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
THUS ARE PREFERRED THROUGH THE 1ST 36 TO 48 HRS. BY MONDAY...THE
NAM/GFS AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SHOW A SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY.
GIVEN THIS MODEL PERSISTENCE AND POOR RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE...A
SOLUTION TOWARD THE STRONG SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IS
RECOMMENDED...BUT PREFER MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE RECOMMENDING
THE STRONGEST NAM AFTER MONDAY...WHICH IF TRUE...WOULD BE UNUSUAL
FOR LATE MAY.

from the HPC Model Discussion
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3189
Hello All,
Now that we are in a El Nino event are they going to revise the list on active storms this year to be less or more?

If memory serves me well a very wet month of May usually means less storms for us in Florida.
It also means a very wet season for Texas and the Southern Gulf states correct?

Someone posted a image of the SST chart of a large area of warm water down south
could this be from the walker circulation shifting towards the east and dumping warm air it picked up from El Nino?
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Howdy, well it looks like the Epac is picking up.



Wow, things have slowed here, 50 posts took about 10 minutes yesterday. Be well all, Hockey night in Bradenton. Go Pens !




Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
June PWAT means from the CFS. Implications of active weather in the Bahamas and around the Greater Antilles.


July:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.