Florida's soaking continues; 5th warmest April for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:51 PM GMT on May 20, 2009

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The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly westward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 13.3 inches have been measured in Northern Florida in Flagler County over the past three days, with another 2 - 4 inches expected from the storm. The storm is bringing beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal to the Northeast Florida coast, along with damaging thunderstorm winds. While the storm's center is located just offshore Southwest Florida, a large band of precipitation arcs to the north and east, extending over northern Florida. This type of structure is typical of subtropical storms, though the storm does not have enough heavy thunderstorm activity or warm core air to qualify as a subtropical storm. The storm is under about 30 knots of wind shear, and shows no signs of developing more tropical characteristics. The computer models generally predict the storm should weaken this week as it moves towards Louisiana or Texas. As the center moves farther north over the next few days, it will be moving into a region of lower wind shear, and I still give the storm a 20% chance of becoming a subtropical depression 2 - 7 days from now.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.

Fifth warmest April on record
The globe recorded its 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - April was tied for the sixth warmest such period on record. April marked the first time since October 2008 that the planet has recorded a monthly temperature anomaly in the top five warmest months. The warming may be due to the fact that a La Niña event ended in the Eastern Pacific in April. Global temperature records go back to 1880.

A cool, wet April for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., April temperatures were the 36th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month was also quite wet, ranking as the 35th wettest April. The warmest state was New Hampshire, which recorded its 8th warmest April. The coldest state was South Dakota, which wad its 25th coldest April. Through April, U.S. tornado activity was very close to the mean observed during the past five years, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, there were just 15 tornado deaths through April, compared to 70 deaths through April of 2008, and the 3-year average of 60 deaths.

On May 12, 2009, 17% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. However, The amount of the U.S. in the highest levels of drought, extreme to exceptional, had increased from 1.2% at the beginning of the year to 2.6% by May 12. These extreme drought regions were in South Texas and South Florida.

La Niña officially over
The La Niña event of September 2008 - March 2009 is officially over, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. They define La Niña conditions as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") cools below -0.5°C and is expected to persist for three consecutive months. Temperatures warmed significantly in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific during April, and are now near average in the Niña 3.4 region. Most of the model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region predict neutral conditions for the August - October peak of hurricane season. Three out of 16 El Niño models are predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season. Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 30% chance of an El Niño event during the coming hurricane season. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is typically reduced in an El Niño year, due to increased wind shear from strong high-level winds.

Sea ice in the Arctic below average, but not greatly so
April 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 10th lowest since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record April low was set in 2007. The rate of ice decline in April was the third slowest on record, thanks to cooler than usual temperatures over the Arctic. Nevertheless, the Arctic remains vulnerable to near-record melting this summer if much warmer than average temperatures return to the region. Strong winter winds pushed a considerable amount of multi-year-old ice out of the Arctic this year, leaving the Arctic with the lowest amount of old sea ice on record in March. The amount of ice more than two years old fell below 10% for the first time since satellites began observing the ice in 1979.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Ossqss:


I would bet they are saying the same thing :)


ROFLMAO, you might be right....
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Coastal Flood Watch

Statement as of 3:50 PM CDT on May 20, 2009

... Coastal Flood Watch in effect from 1 am CDT Thursday through
Saturday evening...


The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Watch... which is in effect from 1 am CDT Thursday through
Saturday evening across coastal sections from Bay St. Louis
Mississippi to Port Fourchon Louisiana.

An area of low pressure will result in increasing northeast and
easterly winds through Thursday. These winds will pile water along
east facing shores from near Bay St. Louis to Port Fourchon and
increase tides further above normal over the next few days.

Tide levels were already running one half to one foot above normal
near Waveland Mississippi and Lake Borgne... and the onshore winds
will continue to cause water levels to rise to one to one and one
half feet above normal around the time of high tide Thursday
morning and early afternoon... and up to two feet above normal
around the time of high tide Friday.

Minor flooding of low lying roadways may occur in Hancock County
Mississippi... and minor flooding of low lying areas may occur
outside of hurricane protection levees from near Lake Catherine
and Lake Borgne... to Grand Isle and Port Fourchon.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Quoting Orcasystems:
Almost time to close up shop.. then I have to go and look after the Zoo, until SWMBO gets back from Quebec on Sunday... anyone want two dogs and two Siamese cats?


I would bet they are saying the same thing :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
With the NHC coordinates the area of lowest pressure is well removed from the convection.
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Almost time to close up shop.. then I have to go and look after the Zoo, until SWMBO gets back from Quebec on Sunday... anyone want two dogs and two Siamese cats?
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GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N85W IN THE SE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR SARASOTA TO HOMESTEAD
FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE ERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS COVER MUCH OF FLORIDA AND
THE ERN GULF WATERS N OF 23N E OF 90W. THIS SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N82W
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NARROW RIBBON OF DRIER AIR
ROUGHLY 150 TO 200 NM WIDE WRAPPING AROUND THE WRN AND SRN
EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOW. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF...STRONG N TO NE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED N
OF 27N E OF 88W. A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FAR WRN GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 96W AND WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS N-NW TO
THE N/CENTRAL GULF COAST BY LATE SATURDAY.
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Gee, a little light precip has actually made it up into the Big Bend area. It'll be interesting to see the next skew-t in the morning.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


GOES East station keeping maneuver.

Expect GOES-12 (GOES-East) imager and sounder gridding offsets for up to 6 hours following the maneuver.

Link


No solar storms Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
LOL!!!!!
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Quoting BajaALemt:
LOL!!! You CANT be talking about BAHA (my namesake). JFV?


I can say Baha.. but I would be fibbing :)
The other is right... but I refuse to say or type the name :)
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LOL!!! You CANT be talking about BAHA (my namesake). JFV?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i am detecting some type of sat image disruption any one else getting this


GOES East station keeping maneuver.

Expect GOES-12 (GOES-East) imager and sounder gridding offsets for up to 6 hours following the maneuver.

Link
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Quoting BajaALemt:
Been....mmmmmmmm.....getting killed at work. Coming in here to .......decompress...LOL! Great to see you!


Things are starting to pickup here.. most of the old timers are still around :)

Your namesake is also around again.. only using multiple names instead of multiple personalities.
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Been....mmmmmmmm.....getting killed at work. Coming in here to .......decompress...LOL! Great to see you!
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Quoting BajaALemt:
Hiya ((( Mister )))) Nice blog


MRS.......... where you been :)
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i am detecting some type of sat image disruption any one else getting this
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Hiya ((( Mister )))) Nice blog
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Latest WV image


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Quoting Drakoen:


I think I see Keeper's Avitar in there ?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188

Blog Update

AOI #1

AOI #2



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LOL SJ! Good! Someone to carry on the family tradition ;)

It's goin' Drak. You know how it is...LOL! I litle rainmaker and we're all over it..hehehe.
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Is the ECMWF showing a low possibly associated with a tropical wave in the southern Carribean at the end of the month? Link
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749. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


Nice view :)


That is an impressive satellite of the GOM low....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
748. IKE
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


Hey Ike,
we hit 86 here today and the breeze started about 10am......cloudy skies now


I've got 75 and partly cloudy. Had wind gusts today near 40 mph. Branches down throughout my yard.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860


Nice view :)
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Interesting different point of view :)



Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188

This view animated says a Lot. A Great tool here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
744. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:
Crews continue mop-up in SE Qld
Thursday May 21, 2009 - 08:30 EST

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh will convene a disaster management meeting this morning as authorities deal with the aftermath of flash flooding in the state's south-east.

Overnight rain has eased in some areas after the region received almost a third of its annual rainfall in one day.

The damage from flash flooding stretches from Queensland's Sunshine Coast to the New South Wales border.

There were more than 1,800 calls to the State Emergency Service (SES) overnight and the 400 staff and volunteers still have to attend to more than 1,000 outstanding jobs.

Most of the focus has moved to Brisbane's south, the Ipswich area and the Gold Coast.

On the Gold Coast, the SES received about 230 calls for help and more are expected today.

Acting SES controller Chad Tripp said roofs were torn off some beachfront houses.

Hundreds of Energex crews are working to restore power to about 6,000 homes in the south-east.

Energex spokesman Danny Donald says repair crews are out in the field this morning.

"The worst affected areas are in the Gold Coast and in the Gold Coast hinterland and some of the damage in the Nerang area is comparable to that seen in The Gap late last year," he said.

"We have had power poles that have been snapped in half and other parts of the network completely torn down by high winds and and some of these people may be without power at least 24 hours - in some cases longer."

However Disaster Management director Mike Shapland says there have been no major issues for emergency crews overnight.

"They've been fairly routine tasks - damage to roofs, sandbagging, fallen trees, that sort of thing, so not the sort of damage we saw in The Gap, but those irritating and routine things people need assistance with," he said.

Ms Bligh says disaster relief funds will be available.

"It looks like we will pay a very high price for getting water in our dams," she said.

Ms Bligh said the drought is now officially over, with dam capacity in the region now at around 70 per cent.

She says there are lessons to be learnt from the flooding.

"I think the biggest learning for me in the last 24 hours and something we'll certainly give a bit more thought to, is just how quickly some of those roads can be cut off and the very major implications of major road closures - not only chaos for parents trying to get to children to collect them from school, but major transport routes and just how quickly they block up," she said.

There is some relief for rain-soaked residents in Brisbane this morning with a break in the torrential rain.

Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman says sandbags and tarpaulins are now available to residents and can be collected from Brisbane City Council depots at Morningside and Zillmere.

Councillor Newman says yesterday's deluge caught many people unprepared.

"Brisbane is a flood-prone city," he said.

"There are many houses that are built in locations with today what we know about our climate we would not have built there.

"So when we get a return to sort of normality - and that's what we've seen - we will get that sort of flooding and unfortunately impacts on people in their homes."

He says council workers will be mobilised to assist residents who need help.

"Our number one priority is always to serve the people of this city," he said.

"That's what we're paid to do so we will throw everything we can at dealing with these situations as they arise over the coming days."

On the Sunshine Coast, 20 homes were flooded when 250 millimetres of rain fell across the region.

SES spokeswoman Janet Scott S says there were 65 calls for help and the residents of a Golden Beach retirement village were moved to higher ground.

She says the Caloundra Hospital has a leaking roof and many roads were closed.

"A lot of the areas have been very badly flooded," she said.

"A lot of the roads were closed for a while I think or flooded quite well.

"We had a few ones with leaking roofs but mostly it's just been all flooding."

Two people were rescued in separate incidents from cars caught in flood waters at Acacia Ridge and at Oxley this morning.

SES spokeswoman Chantelle Rule says motorists must be more careful.

"It's not safe to drive through flood waters - there's debris in the water, it's fast-flowing water and it's a lot deeper than a lot of people expect," she said.

All state schools in the region will be open as normal today.

Two Catholic schools - St Benedicts at Mango Hill and St Peter Claver at Ipswich - will be closed.

St Brigid's at Rosewood and St Augustine's at Springfield will be operating on reduced staffing and authorities say parents may wish to keep students at home.

Education Queensland is advising students from independent schools to contact their school for information about whether they are open.

Around 480 children stranded at five schools in the region were billeted or returned home late last night.

- ABC





Serious flooding.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Nexsat is an excellent site that gives you great close up views through a next-generation satellite.
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Quoting BajaALemt:
Hiya DL! Great to see you again!

Be interesting anyway Ike. El Nino...ENSO neutral...maybe a little quieter this year? We'll see.

I call this sat Remedial GOM LOL!


Cool site. I'm gonna keep that link now.
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Doing good Baja, he's growing like a weed...Matter of fact he is sitting here helping me blog and learning how to track right now...He's having a hard time understanding the surface map, and that the mouse is not food...
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Quoting IKE:


I remember you had that last year.

Nice.


Sweet Site.
Orbital view
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Quoting BajaALemt:
Yah, Ike. I like it because I can SEE it!! LOL!

Drak! Good to see you!


Hey Baja! How's it going?
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737. IKE
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


that's cool! I have friends in Pensacola and Gulf Breeze


I'm 60-70 miles east of there.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Crews continue mop-up in SE Qld
Thursday May 21, 2009 - 08:30 EST

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh will convene a disaster management meeting this morning as authorities deal with the aftermath of flash flooding in the state's south-east.

Overnight rain has eased in some areas after the region received almost a third of its annual rainfall in one day.

The damage from flash flooding stretches from Queensland's Sunshine Coast to the New South Wales border.

There were more than 1,800 calls to the State Emergency Service (SES) overnight and the 400 staff and volunteers still have to attend to more than 1,000 outstanding jobs.

Most of the focus has moved to Brisbane's south, the Ipswich area and the Gold Coast.

On the Gold Coast, the SES received about 230 calls for help and more are expected today.

Acting SES controller Chad Tripp said roofs were torn off some beachfront houses.

Hundreds of Energex crews are working to restore power to about 6,000 homes in the south-east.

Energex spokesman Danny Donald says repair crews are out in the field this morning.

"The worst affected areas are in the Gold Coast and in the Gold Coast hinterland and some of the damage in the Nerang area is comparable to that seen in The Gap late last year," he said.

"We have had power poles that have been snapped in half and other parts of the network completely torn down by high winds and and some of these people may be without power at least 24 hours - in some cases longer."

However Disaster Management director Mike Shapland says there have been no major issues for emergency crews overnight.

"They've been fairly routine tasks - damage to roofs, sandbagging, fallen trees, that sort of thing, so not the sort of damage we saw in The Gap, but those irritating and routine things people need assistance with," he said.

Ms Bligh says disaster relief funds will be available.

"It looks like we will pay a very high price for getting water in our dams," she said.

Ms Bligh said the drought is now officially over, with dam capacity in the region now at around 70 per cent.

She says there are lessons to be learnt from the flooding.

"I think the biggest learning for me in the last 24 hours and something we'll certainly give a bit more thought to, is just how quickly some of those roads can be cut off and the very major implications of major road closures - not only chaos for parents trying to get to children to collect them from school, but major transport routes and just how quickly they block up," she said.

There is some relief for rain-soaked residents in Brisbane this morning with a break in the torrential rain.

Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman says sandbags and tarpaulins are now available to residents and can be collected from Brisbane City Council depots at Morningside and Zillmere.

Councillor Newman says yesterday's deluge caught many people unprepared.

"Brisbane is a flood-prone city," he said.

"There are many houses that are built in locations with today what we know about our climate we would not have built there.

"So when we get a return to sort of normality - and that's what we've seen - we will get that sort of flooding and unfortunately impacts on people in their homes."

He says council workers will be mobilised to assist residents who need help.

"Our number one priority is always to serve the people of this city," he said.

"That's what we're paid to do so we will throw everything we can at dealing with these situations as they arise over the coming days."

On the Sunshine Coast, 20 homes were flooded when 250 millimetres of rain fell across the region.

SES spokeswoman Janet Scott S says there were 65 calls for help and the residents of a Golden Beach retirement village were moved to higher ground.

She says the Caloundra Hospital has a leaking roof and many roads were closed.

"A lot of the areas have been very badly flooded," she said.

"A lot of the roads were closed for a while I think or flooded quite well.

"We had a few ones with leaking roofs but mostly it's just been all flooding."

Two people were rescued in separate incidents from cars caught in flood waters at Acacia Ridge and at Oxley this morning.

SES spokeswoman Chantelle Rule says motorists must be more careful.

"It's not safe to drive through flood waters - there's debris in the water, it's fast-flowing water and it's a lot deeper than a lot of people expect," she said.

All state schools in the region will be open as normal today.

Two Catholic schools - St Benedicts at Mango Hill and St Peter Claver at Ipswich - will be closed.

St Brigid's at Rosewood and St Augustine's at Springfield will be operating on reduced staffing and authorities say parents may wish to keep students at home.

Education Queensland is advising students from independent schools to contact their school for information about whether they are open.

Around 480 children stranded at five schools in the region were billeted or returned home late last night.

- ABC





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Yah, Ike. I like it because I can SEE it!! LOL!

Drak! Good to see you!
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Quoting IKE:


Inland panhandle of Florida.


that's cool! I have friends in Pensacola and Gulf Breeze
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
732. IKE
Quoting BajaALemt:
Hiya DL! Great to see you again!

Be interesting anyway Ike. El Nino...ENSO neutral...maybe a little quieter this year? We'll see.

I call this sat Remedial GOM LOL!


I remember you had that last year.

Nice.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
(((( SJ !!!)))) LOL!! Gosh! I HAAAAAAVE those!! (in here somewhere ...not really, those are somewhere I know EXACTLY where they are ;) )

Good to see ya! Hows that little one?
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Nino region3.4 at +0.3C
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Severe storm warning
Thursday May 21, 2009 - 09:09 EST

ABC image
A severe cold front is expected to hit the south coast of WA.

A severe storm warning is current for the south west of Western Australia.

A cold front approaching the coast is expected to pack damaging winds.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Duty Forecaster Noel Puzy says damaging winds could bring significant damage to property.

"We're looking at pretty widespread gusts of up to 110 kilometres an hour, but could see some isolated gusts of up to 120 kilometres an hour," he said.

Mr Puzy says there's been significant rain overnight and there could be flooding in some areas.

Sheep farmers are being warned there's a serious risk of sheep or lamb losses.

- ABC
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Quoting BajaALemt:
I say this every season...."I'm gonna clean up my links"...and here I am thinking it AGAIN.


These stay dusted and cleaned Baja...

And good to see you :~)
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PAGASA Synopsis : At 2:00 AM today, a Shallow Low Pressure Area (SLPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 230 kms West Northwest of Iba Zambales or 250 kms West of Dagupan City (16.3°N, 117.7°E).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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