First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 877 - 827

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Keeper, got anything on SST's around the area that the Mid Level and Low Level are in right now?




Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53469
Quoting violet312s:
Wow. Howdy all! New season, lots of the same people. First time logging in for 2009!

I lost my bookmarks (virus). Can someone send me a link to a site that has most of them? I'll pick up the balance as the season progresses.

Also desperate for the Google Earth file. Very addictive!



You can find a bunch here just down the page.



867, they do the beach thing to keep the houses beach front, instead of beach. We have the same expenditures here in FL. Just doesn't seem fair to the rest of the taxpayer, but it is what it is :)

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow. Howdy all! New season, lots of the same people. First time logging in for 2009!

I lost my bookmarks (virus). Can someone send me a link to a site that has most of them? I'll pick up the balance as the season progresses.

Also desperate for the Google Earth file. Very addictive!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vortex95:
Drak so now ex 90l is supposed to go out to sea?


A surface low is expect to develop north of Haiti as indicated my 3 computer forecast models. Whether that entity becomes a subtropical system will remain to be seen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
873. MahFL
A spin-up ESE of Melbourne.....



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Stepped out onto the beach at Tybee to look at the big waves and, whadda you know, the beach is getting eaten away. Mother nature has a funny way of course-correcting. We just underwent a huge and expensive beach renourishment project this winter. $9 million in Tybee sand is being washed away right now. Why bother pumping sand up on the shore when most gets eroded away with the first strong Northeaster or tropical storm?

At least the fishing should get better after this.


I think I heard Chris Poseman talking about that tonight (I can't stand her...especially with storm stories that apparently is jacked from twc). Put so much money into this last year and now it's all gone. However, in defense of mother nature, perhaps some folks just shouldn't be on the beach... ;)

How are you doing Savannah - nice to see you back. Blowing stink here in RH...sure it's the same there where you are. HUGE gusts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC 72hr Surface Map:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just started to rain again here.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
Stepped out onto the beach at Tybee to look at the big waves and, whadda you know, the beach is getting eaten away. Mother nature has a funny way of course-correcting. We just underwent a huge and expensive beach renourishment project this winter. $9 million in Tybee sand is being washed away right now. Why bother pumping sand up on the shore when most gets eroded away with the first strong Northeaster or tropical storm?

At least the fishing should get better after this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53469
Quoting Ossqss:


Thanks Orca, forgot ª¿ª

GASP!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hawks 1 up :)


Thanks Orca, forgot ª¿ª
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
862. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM S OF JACKSONVILLE THROUGH TAMPA INTO A 1007 MB
LOW NEAR NAPLES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ACROSS
THE ERN FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA AND
MUCH OF THE E GULF NE OF A LINE FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA TO
GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN FROM
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N85W WITH A
EXPANSIVE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NE GULF...FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STRONG NE
WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N E OF 85W. A NARROW
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WRN GULF AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N80W TO 17N83W.
WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH ACROSS
FLORIDA...THE NE GULF AND W ATLC...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-84W. ALOFT...THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS IS BEING AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AS THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 8N TO A 1006 MB
COLOMBIAN LOW NEAR 8N73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE NE TO BEYOND 32N78W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE PRESENTLY N OF THE WARM FRONT TO ALONG THE SE CONUS
COASTLINE. AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 66W. MOST OF THE W ATLC IS
UNDER A LARGE DIFFLUENT ZONE E OF AN UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 22N71W N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NW TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N45W
27N44W 24N46W 20N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 31N51W AND A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
31N55W THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 30N BETWEEN
42W-53W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLC NW OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS NEAR 34N19W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO NEAR 5N ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH NELY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
NOTED ALONG THE W AFRICAN COAST AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS.

$$
HUFFMAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
861. IKE
Quoting scottsvb:
90L (X) 26.2N 75.5W 1006mb


Interesting.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hawks 1 up :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Before I head home after a long day, just wanted to let ya'll know I did a little mini blog update. See ya all later tonight!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53469
Thanks Vortex, I was hoping for something, just a little, more exciting. (please but only a little, Andrew world here, not stirring the pot!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vortex95:
<-----

I finally decided being faceless was no fun




Yes, now Im not the only one with a Wilma Avatar!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WHOLE SCENARIO OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IS DEVELOPING
COMPARATIVELY MORE AND MORE EACH DAY. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS
FORMED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1010 LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS CURRENTLY IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RAGGED ISLAND
RANGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RANGE FROM THE WATERS BETWEEN
ANDROS ISLAND AND SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS...
AND FROM THE TURKS ISLANDS TO LONG ISLAND/RUM CAY/CROOKED ISLAND.
THE SAME DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 31N52W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
31N54W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 34N49W
AND 31N46W. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ALONG 31N46W 22N50W 18N60W
18N65W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 18N65W...TO NORTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE RAGGED
ISLAND RANGE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CUTS ACROSS
THE TOP OF THE AREA OF THE FRONT.
$$
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53469
854. Vero1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Here is a little refresher for you and we would never tell on anyone :)

Link

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Great to see ya CRS!

Enjoy the stormy night, should be good for sleeping.


I guess this is what I mostly slept through last night (from StormCarib site TCI report):
Heavy downpours were interspersed with loud claps of thunder that seemed to want to peel back the heavens. The lightning show was spectacular.


CRS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mel, little quakes can also build up the pressure on adjacent faults, too.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
Hey Catastrophic - I don't remember her last name but the woman who was at the earthquake place in CA? Kate something or other - she was always SOOOO cool when things hit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT SOUTH FLORIDA-
TO-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO-TO-SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO TAMPA FLORIDA TO APALACHEE BAY
OF FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE OPEN
GULF WATERS ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUBA/BAHAMAS-TO-SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH THAT SPENT 3 TO 4 DAYS IN
NEARLY THE SAME LOCATION FINALLY HAS MOVED EASTWARD. THE TROUGH
NOW EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THAT NOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS OF THE ISLAND
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53469
I just hope it plops itself into the Lake before it dies out. All this rain down here does not help out the lake, but it does cut down on fire season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEFL will only have afternoon storms for the next few days?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The little ones are supposed to be releasing the pressure - it's when you don't have one that you are supposed to worry. Huge build up and then ka boom. That's my understanding though - I have been wrong several zillion times (don't tell my husband though).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yep pws, that area is outside of the dry air and it is also not getting as much shear as 90 was. And I think you are right, the Gulf low is going to be a very dry system before long.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wicked winds off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.





Monster waves, too:





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Taz, I hope I remember my geology right from college, but the Redoubt Volcano and Los Angeles are basically on the same techtonic plate and share the same major fault (smaller, minor faults spread out along major faults). Pressure and stress added to one location on the plate will cause friction elsewhere on the plate. We tend to see pressure and shifting in more than one location around the Australian Plate, too.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Great to see ya CRS!

Enjoy the stormy night, should be good for sleeping.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90L (X) 26.2N 75.5W 1006mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think the eye should be focused on the southern edge of this system. The one currently over in the Bahamas. not much ado about nothing with the setup in the GOM/Carib
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
this blob is about to move into a slightly lower shear area. Waters will start to cool off as it moves north as well though.


SJ... your graphic has me in the "middle"... pouring rain again here now... looks like another dark and stormy night.
CRS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:


If you check out the list, these happen frequently across the globe. It is hard to determine any patterns. The other day, the Kodiak Island region had over 30, shown in the link also. They are all along the same plate and when it moves, it moves. How severe is practically unpredictable, most trouble is caused by the shallow ones. I will take a hurricane any day over the ground moving under my feet :)



ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Link

Here's why I think the storm eventually goes dry over the gulf on the models. In the loop on this link you see dry air wrapping around the upper level low from the south. You also see the dry air eroding the moisture in NC. When this meets in a couple days the storm will lose it's moisture feed.

You got a point. While the system seems to be organizing by the minute, the water vapor loop shows the system going dry and the AVN shows convection disappearing once it reaches the GOM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Going with what I just said, that dry air cuts off the flow over florida. That blowup is in a fairly good area for something to happen, remember how the bahamas seem to be the nursery for storms last year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Keeper, from your post it looks like this blob is about to move into a slightly lower shear area. Waters will start to cool off as it moves north as well though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Link

Here's why I think the storm eventually goes dry over the gulf on the models. In the loop on this link you see dry air wrapping around the upper level low from the south. You also see the dry air eroding the moisture in NC. When this meets in a couple days the storm will lose it's moisture feed.


Plus the ull is in the development stages and has a lot of dynamics that can resist the dry air. In a couple days it will be weakening and giving the llc less support.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting melwerle:


Figures - you set cameras up and wait and ZILCH happens. Kind of how it works. If they packed up and went home, all hell would break loose!

Yep, just like a parent at home watching their kids being relatively calm and as soon as the parents leave, the house is destroyed, 10 strange kids come over, there's crayon on the wall, soda on the carpet, toys down the toilet and total chaos ensues!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Side item, run the IR Loop and look towards the tail end of this system. Huge blowup around the eastern edge of the Bahamas and just off the eastern tip of Cuba.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
I think you are onto something, along the lines of something big coming. Taz, is there a way to determine if this exact fault that you are talking about, has had any other rumblings that are not in populated areas. In which one can relate to heightened activity



not sure i be keeping a eye on this
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53469
Quoting Tazmanian:



but what dos this all mean how dos this fet in with the 4.7 on sunday and the 4.1 today???


If you check out the list, these happen frequently across the globe. It is hard to determine any patterns. The other day, the Kodiak Island region had over 30, shown in the link also. They are all along the same plate and when it moves, it moves. How severe is practically unpredictable, most trouble is caused by the shallow ones. I will take a hurricane any day over the ground moving under my feet :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 877 - 827

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
71 °F
Overcast