First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting scottsvb:
he didnt say 55kt winds..also 45-55mph might be offshore but wont be like that inland..maybe 25-35mph in a squall line


Over water the Buoys measure the winds in KNOTS.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
The CMC still has this thing developing and going to THAT place.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
post 892
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


iam glad it did'nt turn in to this


Keeper - you almost just gave me a heart attack!!! GEEEEEEEEZZZZZ. I've been checking all day and nothing and then i catch a glimpse of that post with your comment underneath.

Ok...going to drink a bottle of wine now. Keeper - now you have to get everyone up here and moving in the morning. I hope you know how to make poached eggs.



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he didnt say 55kt winds..also 45-55mph might be offshore but wont be like that inland..maybe 25-35mph in a squall line
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NEXRAD Radar
Tampa, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting ChrisDcane:
!! for those of u on C.FL atlantic coast be aware, noaa buoys have recorded wind from 45-55 approching the coast, winds should rapidly increase throught the next 30 min!!


Winds have been blowing at 40-50 knots all day off the GA and SC coast, but on the immediate coastline it has only been 20-30 knots sustained. Lack of friction allows the wind to achieve much higher speeds offshore. Interaction with the coastline and surf zones causes the movement to slow, so those windspeeds won't be nearly as high onshore.
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Quoting ChrisDcane:
!! for those of u on C.FL atlantic coast be aware, noaa buoys have recorded wind from 45-55 approching the coast, winds should rapidly increase throught the next 30 min!!


You have a link or some kind of proof that someone will see 55 Knot winds?
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
!! for those of u on C.FL atlantic coast be aware, noaa buoys have recorded wind from 45-55 approching the coast, winds should rapidly increase throught the next 30 min!!
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting irecthh:
Does anyone have a rain total so far for Titusville??

about 1.72 inches
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Looks like another surface low struggling to start on the Atlantic side on Melbourne radar.
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well im out for the night...looks like not all of ex90L is gong to get drug out by the Low over florida and will have to see what she does cause she is a crazy old bird. well ill be back on tomorrow early morning to monitor things
Rest in peace Ms Dogens (she was on of my dads friends that past just a few moments ago. her and her husband were married 66 years)
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i have noted that wind shear in the gulf is down too 5 to 10kt


Link
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Does anyone have a rain total so far for Titusville??
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actually x90L will get absorbed into the front (which is sort of already is) as it moves into florida this morning.
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What happened to invest 90? thay took it off the map??????????
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but its not warm enough yet a another couple of months

i know that
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Been draining the pool for over an hour now. Still have about 3 inches to go. Here is a nice radar view of FL.

Link
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Quoting ChrisDcane:

Same location
but its not warm enough yet a another couple of months
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is it just me, or does it seem like there is a surface low trying to form offshore of ft myers? it looks like the ull is further to the northwest but even on the radar, it appears as if the circulation is trying to close
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Same location
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Quoting Vortex95:
885. when would ex 90l make it by thurs cause I do not see it here by tommorow?
it gets pinch and push ne e
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Photo slideshow on past Super Bowls in New Orleans

Posted by The Times-PIcayune May 19, 2009 4:02PM
Categories: Super Bowl
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90L 26.3N 75.6W 1005.5mb
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 192356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 10N MOVING WEST NEAR 15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 6N ACROSS INLAND NE
BRAZIL...FRENCH GUIANA AND ERN SURINAME THAT COINCIDE WITH
HIGHER LEVELS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS. WAVE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO MOVE UNDER AN AREA OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE GUYANAS AND ERN
VENEZUELA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N16W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 24W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N
BETWEEN 9W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM S OF JACKSONVILLE THROUGH TAMPA INTO A 1007 MB
LOW NEAR NAPLES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ACROSS
THE ERN FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA AND
MUCH OF THE E GULF NE OF A LINE FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA TO
GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN FROM
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N85W WITH A
EXPANSIVE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NE GULF...FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STRONG NE
WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N E OF 85W. A NARROW
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WRN GULF AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N80W TO 17N83W.
WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH ACROSS
FLORIDA...THE NE GULF AND W ATLC...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-84W. ALOFT...THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS IS BEING AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AS THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 8N TO A 1006 MB
COLOMBIAN LOW NEAR 8N73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE NE TO BEYOND 32N78W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE PRESENTLY N OF THE WARM FRONT TO ALONG THE SE CONUS
COASTLINE. AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 66W. MOST OF THE W ATLC IS
UNDER A LARGE DIFFLUENT ZONE E OF AN UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 22N71W N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NW TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N45W
27N44W 24N46W 20N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 31N51W AND A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
31N55W THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 30N BETWEEN
42W-53W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLC NW OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS NEAR 34N19W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO NEAR 5N ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH NELY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
NOTED ALONG THE W AFRICAN COAST AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS.

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iam glad it did'nt turn in to this
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nola.com has the NFL Super Bowl Local Info
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Abaco Island has a northeast wind now
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GOES-12 Atmospheric Animations
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888. Vero1
883. Patrap

NFL owners voted Tuesday to play the 2013 Super Bowl in New Orleans
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Thanks all! Nothing like starting over completely. This time I'll organize it a bit better.
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886. flsky
Winds and rain goin' a bit wild here in Daytona Beach Shores tonight. Supposed to last all night. The Intercoastal is up to the bottom of the dock - which hardly ever happens. We certainly need the rain, but I hope flooding is minimal. Flagler county has received 13 inches in the last two days. Wow!
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Quoting foggymyst:
SEFL will only have afternoon storms for the next few days?

no tomorrow and thursday's weather will be determined by upper low and ex- 90L
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884. Vero1
Quoting violet312s:
Wow. Howdy all! New season, lots of the same people. First time logging in for 2009!

I lost my bookmarks (virus). Can someone send me a link to a site that has most of them? I'll pick up the balance as the season progresses.

Also desperate for the Google Earth file. Very addictive!



Bookmark this: http://www.adriansweather.com/tropicalweatherlinks.htm
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878. I remember hearing that on the news - kid went out on the sandbar, tide came in and took him out? Terrible situation.
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GOM IR loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting violet312s:
Wow. Howdy all! New season, lots of the same people. First time logging in for 2009!

I lost my bookmarks (virus). Can someone send me a link to a site that has most of them? I'll pick up the balance as the season progresses.

Also desperate for the Google Earth file. Very addictive!



Link

Everything is linked at the bottom of the tropical section - same thing happened to me this year and it's a huge pain to try to get everything back in place the way you want it and can understand it. Also try www.stormjunkie.com and www.crownwx.com and http://www.adriansweather.com/tropicalweatherlinks.htm

That should about cover you for every link you could ask for - it's just a matter of getting it all set up.
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Quoting melwerle:


I think I heard Chris Poseman talking about that tonight (I can't stand her...especially with storm stories that apparently is jacked from twc). Put so much money into this last year and now it's all gone. However, in defense of mother nature, perhaps some folks just shouldn't be on the beach... ;)

How are you doing Savannah - nice to see you back. Blowing stink here in RH...sure it's the same there where you are. HUGE gusts.


Doing good mel. Its blowing pretty hard here. The waves are crazy, 7-10 foot breakers. If it wasn't so chilly I'd like to go surfing.

I agree with you on the beach. Sometimes we have to just let mother nature run its course. On the Outer Banks they just move everything when erosion gets bad. They even moved the Hatteras Lighthouse about 1/2 a mile several years ago.

The beach renourishment also contributes to the dangerous situation on the south end of Tybee. All the sand from the north end gets eroded to the south, where it builds up as big sandbars that are susceptible to rip currents that drown swimmers fairly frequently. A boy died last month because of it.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Keeper, got anything on SST's around the area that the Mid Level and Low Level are in right now?




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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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