First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TheRisingTide:
First time post from Mobile, Al. Been reading you guys for the last several years. My wife says I'm addicted to the site so I should at least say hello. Thanks for all the great info and look forward to the season.


Welcome to WU!
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Quoting TheRisingTide:
Maybe one day I'll know enough to keep up with these guys.


If you stick around for even one hurricane season, then you'll undoubtedly gain plenty of knowledge, even if you didn't initially come here to learn.

I know I did.
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Quoting irecthh:
Does anyone have a rain total so far for Titusville??


I am in Titusville as well and I have about 5 inches so far in my rain gauge...we are slated for 7.7 as per Tom Sorrells on Channel 6.
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There is a nice spin-up between Vietnam and The Philippines.


PAGASA Synopsis: At 2:00 a.m. today, an Active Low Pressure Area (ALPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 320 kms Northwest of Puerto Princesa City (12.4N 116.7E) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affecting Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
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Maybe one day I'll know enough to keep up with these guys. Although my wife already calls me the weather man. lol
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welcome to WU, risingtide. Grab a bucket of popcorn, it's gonna be a long show.
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Quoting TheRisingTide:
First time post from Mobile, Al. Been reading you guys for the last several years. My wife says I'm addicted to the site so I should at least say hello. Thanks for all the great info and look forward to the season.


Welcome to the community. You're probably not going to want to leave now that you've created an account and made your first post. :P
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Quoting TheRisingTide:
First time post from Mobile, Al. Been reading you guys for the last several years. My wife says I'm addicted to the site so I should at least say hello. Thanks for all the great info and look forward to the season.



Always good to add another Voice.

Welcome.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting TheRisingTide:
First time post from Mobile, Al. Been reading you guys for the last several years. My wife says I'm addicted to the site so I should at least say hello. Thanks for all the great info and look forward to the season.

hello from one lurker to the other. lol
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Buoy 41008 is adrift and heading my way! I wonder if I get a reward if I find it on the beach.

Link


LOL! I've been watching that buoy all day and didn't even notice! I hope NOAA can capture it before hurricane season gets into gear.
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First time post from Mobile, Al. Been reading you guys for the last several years. My wife says I'm addicted to the site so I should at least say hello. Thanks for all the great info and look forward to the season.
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Ossgss, thanks for the refresher earlier. It has been over 20 years since I was in college :o)
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oreodog- I was JUST looking at an infrared loop of the gom , and was wondering about that!! Thank you!
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Boy, Lake O is sure dry.
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Station SPLL1
LSU CSI


Location: 28.867N 90.483W
Conditions as of:
Tuesday, May 19, 2009 7:00:00 PM
Winds: NE (50°) at 19.0 kt gusting to 22.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.10 in and falling
Air Temperature: 70.2 F
Water Temperature: 76.6 F
Visibility: 6.5 nmi
Tide: 0.5 ft (above MLLW)


NDBC
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Vortex - And, there is moister air pushing in from Texas/Mexico
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Blog Update


AOI #1


AOI #2



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catDL- I can see ya just fine. You pretty!

Mel- yeah I was wondering too, how much wind ya'll were getting. this is exactly like faye was, just long and drawn out. No water/flooding problems yet, we drain pretty good unless it's a torrential downpour.

Got some pics in my blog.

Heading to the beach this saturday to check out erosion, flotsam and jetsam.
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Station 41009
NDBC
Location: 28.519N 80.166W
Conditions as of:
Tuesday, May 19, 2009 8:50:00 PM

Winds: ENE (60°) at 33.0 kt gusting to 40.8 kt
Significant Wave Height: 12.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and falling
Air Temperature: 71.1 F
Dew Point: 67.5 F
Water Temperature: 73.6 F

View Details - View History
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page


Multi-Model


Nam


NCEP Ensemble
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
View of the future??

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Quoting aquak9:
here in jacksonville florida coast we have had steady wind 20-30 for the past 12 hours. About 4 inches of rain since sunday evening, 2 of those being in the last 24 hours.

It's just like Faye. Exactly. Except it's not hitting Florida four times.


I was thinking about you today Aquak during all this mess and our conversations last year during Faye.

We haven't gotten as much rain with this and the wind has been lighter but from what I have heard from you and twc, you guys are getting it huge. You holding up okay? Flooding?

We have good wind - gusts, then nothing, then gusts again. I don't think the kids will be sailing in the day tomorrow. COLD too.
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Quoting hurristat:
May I dare ask why it is warmer by bermuda than in the caribbean?


According to this map, it isn't:

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Does anyone have any idea why my avatar would all of a sudden disappear? My portrait is still marked as primary and is still there, but for some reason just not showing up on the blog.
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NEXRAD Radar
Tampa, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting Ossqss:
Station SKMG1
Skidaway
Location: 31.534N 80.236W
Conditions as of:
Tuesday, May 19, 2009 8:36:00 PM

Winds: NNE (20°) at 42.9 kt gusting to 49.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.08 in and rising
Air Temperature: 66.2 F
Dew Point: 61.3 F

View Details - View History


That's Navy Tower R6 off Savannah, Georgia. it has nothing to do with winds reaching the C. Fla coast.

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Quoting MelbourneTom:
Been draining the pool for over an hour now. Still have about 3 inches to go. Here is a nice radar view of FL.

Link
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May I dare ask why it is warmer by bermuda than in the caribbean?
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here in jacksonville florida coast we have had steady wind 20-30 for the past 12 hours. About 4 inches of rain since sunday evening, 2 of those being in the last 24 hours.

It's just like Faye. Exactly. Except it's not hitting Florida four times.
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Station SKMG1
Skidaway
Location: 31.534N 80.236W
Conditions as of:
Tuesday, May 19, 2009 8:36:00 PM

Winds: NNE (20°) at 42.9 kt gusting to 49.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.08 in and rising
Air Temperature: 66.2 F
Dew Point: 61.3 F

View Details - View History
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting Vortex95:
Ocra any other models still working?


I have only 1 showing it going to you know where... and three putting it into the GOM, weaker, but alive
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934. JRRP
may be we will see 91L north of Dom Rep in 3 days
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Quoting Vortex95:
Ocra any other models still working?


Mmmm, I love Ocra. Especially fired ocra.
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If it is still needed

Floating devices in Water
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting Vortex95:
924. Seems like the dry air is being constricted on two sides wouldn't be surpised to see most of it gone my mid morning tommorow.


The Dry air or the Storm? lol
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Quoting scottsvb:
he didnt say 55kt winds..also 45-55mph might be offshore but wont be like that inland..maybe 25-35mph in a squall line


Over water the Buoys measure the winds in KNOTS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.