First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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HaHaGuy whats happen......
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Hey Viking and Fox
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1025. Drakoen
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
THE GFS IS SHOWING A LOW COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE YUACATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 200 HOURS OUT. HAS ANYBODY ELSE SEEN THIS?


ROFL!
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1024. hahaguy
Hey Tampa
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Three cheers for Viking! I'm hoping the weather changes & we can be there too!
Quoting 69Viking:


Good evening Beachfoxx and hello Tampa!

Beachfoxx I'm going to Crab Island Saturday and Sunday so this thing is going to (needs to) stay South and head to LA or TX!
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Quoting scottsvb:


whats a pre-91l???? You mean like a pre-pre-pre-91l that has 1 cloud in the atlantic?


Thats for sure......I don't see a 91L coming.....Heck 90L should not have been an invest in my opinion!
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Interesting - the old timers, fishing Captains and such, all say something similar here on the panhandle.
2005 was a rough season and in March we had record rainfall amounts.....
Hmmmm, I wish I could remember the quote.
It will probably wake me up in middle of the night! LOL
Quoting sporteguy03:



Believe that is somewhat of a myth, I asked Dr.Masters about that a few seasons back he was not aware of it being true. If the right factors fall into place it does not really matter if it was a wet May or not.
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
Viking!!!

Long time no see! Guess we won't be converging on Crab Island this Memorial Weekend. Looks like we are going to be rained in. : (


Good evening Beachfoxx and hello Tampa!

Beachfoxx I'm going to Crab Island Saturday and Sunday so this thing is going to (needs to) stay South and head to LA or TX!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3010
Quoting weatherman874:
anyone see the pre 91l wrapping some nice convection around the center?


whats a pre-91l???? You mean like a pre-pre-pre-91l that has 1 cloud in the atlantic?
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It's been raining here in Citrus County for almost 48 hours straight. I'm not complaining though!
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Viking!!!

Long time no see! Guess we won't be converging on Crab Island this Memorial Weekend. Looks like we are going to be rained in. : (
Quoting 69Viking:


Welcome to the madness RisingTide! Too funny, my wife and friends say the same thing about me but I'm just as much an amateur as anybody!
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Good evening everyone!
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Quoting sporteguy03:



Believe that is somewhat of a myth, I asked Dr.Masters about that a few seasons back he was not aware of it being true. If the right factors fall into place it does not really matter if it was a wet May or not.


That may be. But the story does say:
Plotting 75 years worth of May rainfall data, Lushine found the probability of a hurricane striking South Florida almost tripled after a very dry May. Conversely, the chances of a hurricane striking South Florida after a wet May were three times less.

So I guess his guess is an educated guess. I was just point out the theory as the rain pounded outside!
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1014. EasyEEE
Quoting stillwaiting:
just saw a CG plane flying south along the beach here on siesta key beach,they were at about 5000ft...


Well, we are based out of Clearwater. :) Probably out on a training flight, or getting vectors around the weather. I'll be flying Thursday night and Friday. ;)
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anyone see the pre 91l wrapping some nice convection around the center?
Member Since: May 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
Quoting TheRisingTide:
Maybe one day I'll know enough to keep up with these guys. Although my wife already calls me the weather man. lol


Welcome to the madness RisingTide! Too funny, my wife and friends say the same thing about me but I'm just as much an amateur as anybody!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3010
former 90L is actually looking impressive for not being an invest any more... Kinda worried about this thing getting in the gulf for some reason...
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1010. flsky
In DBS, weather radio alarm just sounded w/a flood warning. Heavy squalls coming from the Atlantic.
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OK, that should be good now... I think the brush fires are OUT...
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Quoting RMM34667:
Guess It's time to bring up Jim Lushine's theory on May Rain and the upcoming Hurricane Season.
When rainfall in May exceeds the regional average of 5 inches, he said the risk decreases. But when rainfall is less than normal, the likelihood of a strike increases. "It's kind of the lynchpin on whether it will be an active season for us," Lushine explained. Link



Believe that is somewhat of a myth, I asked Dr.Masters about that a few seasons back he was not aware of it being true. If the right factors fall into place it does not really matter if it was a wet May or not.
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1006. RTLSNK
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TROLL WARNING
NATIONAL TROLL SERVICE TROLL LAND
1015PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

TROLL WARNING MASS INFLUX OF TROLLS POSSIBLE TAKE ALL NESSASARY PRECAUTIONS IN THIS MATTER AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE
REMEMBER SOME TROLLS MAY BE DOWN RIGHT NASTY



Hey KEEPER, I found a couple of them lurking around, but I'm not sure I can handle both of them:

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1005. geepy86
looks like here in brevard co. fl, we are about to get a real good soaking.
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1004. Patrap
200hrs is 8 days..

240hrs is 10 days.


UNYSIS 10-Day GFSx
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1003. Patrap
Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami

There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami. Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information

GOM IR Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
THE GFS IS SHOWING A LOW COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE YUACATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 200 HOURS OUT. HAS ANYBODY ELSE SEEN THIS?


I have. The GFS has been consistent on it so far. I'm not sure it will actually verify but it is something for South Florida to keep an eye on.
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Quoting RMM34667:
Guess It's time to bring up Jim Lushine's theory on May Rain and the upcoming Hurricane Season.
When rainfall in May exceeds the regional average of 5 inches, he said the risk decreases. But when rainfall is less than normal, the likelihood of a strike increases. "It's kind of the lynchpin on whether it will be an active season for us," Lushine explained. Link


If that holds true, it increases the risk of strikes on the East Coast north of FL.

Although, he was wrong about the 2005 season...
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1000. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TROLL WARNING
NATIONAL TROLL SERVICE TROLL LAND
1015PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

TROLL WARNING MASS INFLUX OF TROLLS POSSIBLE TAKE ALL NESSASARY PRECAUTIONS IN THIS MATTER AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE
REMEMBER SOME TROLLS MAY BE DOWN RIGHT NASTY

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Guess It's time to bring up Jim Lushine's theory on May Rain and the upcoming Hurricane Season.
When rainfall in May exceeds the regional average of 5 inches, he said the risk decreases. But when rainfall is less than normal, the likelihood of a strike increases. "It's kind of the lynchpin on whether it will be an active season for us," Lushine explained. Link
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Now if I could just get links and modify to work...
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Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
THE GFS IS SHOWING A LOW COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE YUACATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 200 HOURS OUT. HAS ANYBODY ELSE SEEN THIS?


I love the caps...
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THE GFS IS SHOWING A LOW COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE YUACATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 200 HOURS OUT. HAS ANYBODY ELSE SEEN THIS?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Those of you that have issues with image sizes, it is time toget a browser.
They are all perfectly resized by most...even on this blackberry.
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Quoting CaneAddict:


Why'd you switch back from the SevereHurricane handle?


We are 2 different people :D
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Is Florida a Target this year for hurricanes? What i am asking is ... is the bermuda high positioned like 2004 and 2005? or like the last couple of seasons?


Why'd you switch back from the SevereHurricane handle?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Is Florida a Target this year for hurricanes? What i am asking is ... is the bermuda high positioned like 2004 and 2005? or like the last couple of seasons?
actually it sits to the west south west of where it should and needs to drift a little more ne by e at the moment with current position any systems that form will be an east coast event from n fla to long island but as we move along into season things will change
high position 240 hrs out may 28
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting SavannahStorm:


I'm think further south- maybe Cumberland. It's already moving SSW and once it gets within 5 miles of the beach the longshore current will push it a little farther southward.


Actually, I just charted its course on Google Earth and Buoy 41008 is on a heading that would take it all the way down to Fernandina!
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979-Koritheman
I have to agree with you; I was, and still am, very skeptical about anything developing out of this. However, shear has and is lowering quite dramatically in the northeastern Gulf of mexico. It is now between 15 and 20 knots which is marginally favorable for development. If dry air subsides and the system has enough time to develop it is possible it could become a subtropical storm.
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Quoting boxer01:
computer updated last night to explorer 8. can't open any links from here! anyone have any ideas?


Yes, Firefox :)
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Quoting boxer01:
computer updated last night to explorer 8. can't open any links from here! anyone have any ideas?


I run IE 8 with no problems. Try the COMPATIBILITY Icon next to the address bar. Looks like a page ripped in half. Or go to TOOLS then compatibility settings.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Its just a Upper Level Low .. Forcasted to Merge with the Ex90L We were watching ... there is no " Surface Circulation" off Fort.Myers... If anything Happens it will take time... its not going to go from a extratropical system to a cat 5 in one day... Relax ... June 1st is the offical start of hurricane season with no suprises


No credible person is saying that ex-90L will go from an extratropical cyclone to a Category 5 in one day. Relax.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well I think buoy 41008 will land on Jekyll tomorrow. So Mike and I are going in ourtruck to look for it. With luck, it will make landfall around 5 this morning at high tide, and be away from the sea water when we get to it.


I'm think further south- maybe Cumberland. It's already moving SSW and once it gets within 5 miles of the beach the longshore current will push it a little farther southward.
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computer updated last night to explorer 8. can't open any links from here! anyone have any ideas?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Relax Guys .... Nothing's Going to Happen .. We in South florida need the rain .. Why get worked over nothing?


Never say never, sammy. This is a lesson that I have learned during my 2+ years of being here.

That said, I don't think any of us really expect any substantial development out of this low.

However, even if subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis doesn't occur, strong winds will probably be felt across a wide swath of the central Gulf Coast over the next two days or so, because of the steep pressure gradient between the low and the developing high along the southeastern United States coast.

Remember, it doesn't always take a named storm to produce an impact, particularly along coastal communities.
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Learned a lot last year thanks to you guys. Everyone at work looks to me to know whats goning on and I look to you guys for the answers. Great site, great guys.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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