First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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Statement as of 11:44 PM EDT on May 19, 2009

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until midnight EDT for Central
Lake... west central Seminole and northwestern Orange counties...

At 1142 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a tornado. This tornado was located near Altamonte
Springs... moving west at 40 mph.

The tornado will move across areas near Forest City and Piedmont
near State Road 436 and U.S. 441 to between Clarcona and Apopka.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means
that strong rotation has been detected in the storm. A tornado may
already be on the ground... or is expected to develop shortly. If you
are in the path of this dangerous storm... move indoors and to the
lowest level of the building. Stay away from windows. If driving... do
not seek shelter under a Highway overpass.


Lat... Lon 2871 8138 2861 8133 2841 8167 2880 8168
time... Mot... loc 0341z 083deg 33kt 2866 8142


52
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1075. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Please, not tonight, I'm going through a rather difficult time, I'm only on here tonight in attempts to temporarily forget about what happened tonight, alright? Hello, by the way. How are ya?


I'm doing alright..watching this complex situation with multiple lows developing in numerous areas..it's crazy.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1073. Patrap

NASA - KSC Video Feeds
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Tornado Warning near Orlando.
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Quoting spathy:
Post #1054 RMM Probably yes and yes. But LowerCal blog should be able to answer.


Thanks that is one awesome blog!
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I'm sorry to hear that WS. I am glad he is OK.
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WS what happened?
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Looks like another rough night ahead for Florida's east coast.
Link
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Can you guys see my avatar? I've been having problems with it today.


I can't. I'm off to Starbucks!
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Quoting spathy:
Post #1054 RMM Probably yes and yes. But LowerCal blog should be able to answer.


Thanks - looks like they are really getting slammed.
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Can you guys see my avatar? I've been having problems with it today.
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Hi CaneWarning! Hope you are having fun. We got rain here today too.

Hi TS, Haha, WS, CaneAddict and everyone else! I did a mini-blog update today. So check it out! I should resume major blog posts the first part of June.
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Last post for the night.... time to lay on the couch and practise playing brain dead
(No comments from the peanut gallery thank you very much)


Blog Update

AOI #1

AOI #2

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Gale like conditions now in east CFla.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Hi everyone.


Hey JFV!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
Quoting hahaguy:


?, are you saying whats happening or what's happen. LOL. I'm confused


Whats happening.......ROFLMAO
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Is there still a shuttle on the launch pad? I think they moved Endeavour to the launch pad just in case they needed to rescue Atlantis? And any chance this stuff will still be around come Friday morning when Atlantis is scheduled to land?
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Quoting EasyEEE:


Well, we are based out of Clearwater. :) Probably out on a training flight, or getting vectors around the weather. I'll be flying Thursday night and Friday. ;)


yea the choppers and I think c-130's are always doing training along our coast ,you guys and gals do our country a great service and don't get near the gratitude you deserve,thanks abunch if you ever see a skinny bald white guy fishing on siesta beach give a tip of the wing!!!,lol(joking).....great to see your likes on the blog.....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Hi everyone, I'm still on vacation in the Pacific Northwest. Right now I am in Seattle. We just had a thunderstorm!
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Quoting RMM34667:
Remember watching this loop often last season. what does the darker red indicate? Whas it higher cloud tops? Or Colder Cloud Tops? Sorry if this is a dumb question.
Link


I think it means colder cloud tops.
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Quoting FloridaTigers:


Does it develop it into an organized system?


Yeah, but it's a long shot.
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OK, so I just got my power turned back on following Ike! ;) Anyone have any intel for us Houston folk that gives us any idea what 09 will bring to upper TX coast, please?
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Remember watching this loop often last season. what does the darker red indicate? Whas it higher cloud tops? Or Colder Cloud Tops? Sorry if this is a dumb question.
Link
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1046. Patrap
- EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page --

Model Cycle: 2009052000


North America: Model Tracks for Mid-Latitude Cyclones
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
1045. Patrap
Quoting foggymyst:
good evening to all. please, can anyone offer a simple explaination to the possible situation with the low(s)?




Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
854 PM CDT Tuesday may 19 2009



Long term...
he Gulf disturbance mentioned above pertains to upper level low
that is developing near Florida which was the base of the previous
trough that has been cut off. At this time...still looks like the low will
continue to be cold core and not tropical in nature. GFS and
NAM/dgex just Haven/T had any run to run consistency on the
location...path...strength...etc. Of this feature. The European model (ecmwf) on the
other hand has maintained its solution for at least the last 4 runs.
This model shifts the surface and upper ridge currently impacting the
County Warning Area weather to the east. A weakness in the ridge on the western side
develops later this week from progressively moving trough well to the
north. This will allow the low to change its westerly track to more
northerly towards the central Gulf Coast. The European model (ecmwf) consistently has
problems with excessive output of rainfall...so not so in to going
verbatim on the precipitation. But biggest concern for the later part of
the week and into the weekend will be heavy rainfall. Will have to
continue to monitor but the potential exists for the issuance of a
Flash Flood Watch. In terms of yearly rainfall total...the area is
somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 to 10 inches below normal. Its
possible that localize event totals could reach the lower end of
this value. Still on the lower side of confidence...but a better
idea as to how the event will unfold will come with time.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
good evening to all. please, can anyone offer a simple explaination to the possible situation with the low(s)?
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1043. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Quoting Ossqss:
Can there actually be a pre-post-invest-invest ?

L8R


That's certainly been the theme today! Evidently the early invest got everyone excited! I'm just waiting and watching here in NW FL, pretty sure it's just going to be a rain event just not sure on the timing of it and just whose Memorial Day weekend it's going to soak.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3010
1039. Ossqss
Can there actually be a pre-post invest-invest ?

L8R
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting TampaSpin:
Been any Trolls on today....i have not read backwards.....but, i can imiagine......LOL


Oh they're definitely here!
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1037. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
heres a clear shot
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1036. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0030z 20MAY)
============================================
An area of convection (99W) located at 10.3N 116.7E or 360 NM southwest of Manila, Philippines. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows an area of flaring convection near a developing low level circulation center. THe low level circulation center currently is weak and elongated and convective banding is only beginning to develop. Upper level analysis reveals low to moderate vertical wind shear over the developing low level circulation center.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimal sea level pressure of 1008 MB. Since the low level circulation center is weak and elongated with little convective banding, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
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Quoting Drakoen:


ROFL!


LOL Drak.
He's like a JFV/STORMTOP Hybrid.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
Boy, it sure has stopped raining here.
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1033. Patrap
GOM IR Loop

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1032. hahaguy
Quoting TampaSpin:
HaHaGuy whats happen......


?, are you saying whats happening or what's happen. LOL. I'm confused
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Quoting weatherblog:


I have. The GFS has been consistent on it so far. I'm not sure it will actually verify but it is something for South Florida to keep an eye on.


Does it develop it into an organized system?
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Quoting 69Viking:


Welcome to the madness RisingTide! Too funny, my wife and friends say the same thing about me but I'm just as much an amateur as anybody!
Txs Viking. Sometimes its scary how much I look at charts, sst, ect. Sometimes I'm not really sure what I'm looking at but it's interesting. Just love the power of nature.
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1029. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
breaking away

what remains
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Been any Trolls on today....i have not read backwards.....but, i can imiagine......LOL
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HaHaGuy whats happen......
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.