First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
Ding Ding,..!


Ga. Coast has that round.




Too funny, Pat! LOL
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tornado warning seminole county....absolutely raining cats and dogs and windy....9 inches rain since sunday night...could this be worse than Fay when i had over 17 inches of rain?? My buddy went shrimping in Oak Hill tonite. What a crazy SOB!!
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1125. Patrap
Ding Ding,..!


Ga. Coast has that round.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127367
ok didnt think so... plus I think she lives in Cocoa..been years since i talked to her.
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No-Invest-90L still on Floater
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Quoting Weather456:
Highest reported sustain winds assoicated with this system was in the NE GOM by a drifting BUOY - 40 knots - 19 May


Actually, how about 50 knots off the GA coast?



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Quoting scottsvb:


Julie Hodgin?


no, doppleganger maybe? but my name IS julie
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1120. Patrap
Still blowing offshore FLa..Buoy 41009
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127367
Quoting Indialanticgirl:


yes...?


Julie Hodgin?
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Highest reported sustain winds assoicated with this system was in the NE GOM by a drifting BUOY - 40 knots - 19 May
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Quoting scottsvb:


Is your name Julie?


yes...?
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G'nite Keeper!
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1114. Patrap
Its a rainmaker tonight for sure.
Be wary of the flooding to come.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127367
1113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


stay safe

last post for the night see ya all in the am
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
1111. RevInFL
Thanks Patrap I meant NWS in Melbourne...LOL I cant even see my road in front of my house here in North Brevard...Its raining in sheets like Fay did...so weird that its not tropical.
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Kind of saw this coming Saturday over cuba, got a feeling this may play out like kat did where it jeted west ducked down in to the gulf and rebuilt and then went nort in to NOLA. I never trust the southern boarder running
storms.



glad to see your on the job still Jeff!
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Quoting Indialanticgirl:


Ya, i am just right there on the ocean between Satellite Beach and Palm Bay markers. Getting messy out there.


Is your name Julie?
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Tornado about 30 miles south of here, Mims.
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1107. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127367
1106. Patrap
Tops to 51K

NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI


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1105. RevInFL
Matt Braghaw from NHC Melbourne says the system is developing into a hybrid tropical system. Here in Titusville we have gotten 5 inches of rain in the last hour and its not to nice here right now.
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


Some very cold cloudtops moving over that region right now, and will continue to over the next several hours.

Melbourne NEXRAD picking up some wicked rotation in several of areas.


Ya, i am just right there on the ocean between Satellite Beach and Palm Bay markers. Getting messy out there.
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1103. Patrap

GOES-12 WV Channel-3 With Dry Air Shaded,Atlantic
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127367
Has anyone else ever had a problem with their avatar dropping? Anyway, I'm sporting a temporary until admin can figure out what is wrong.

I think the GFS has hit it on the head. I think our low will hang out in the GOM for a while trying to moisten up before heading north over TX and LA.
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One roof blown off completely in Casselberry, FL on Lake Dr.
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Nice picture catch, Patrap. Definitely Ying-Yang.
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Quoting Indialanticgirl:
Heads up Merrit Island, Titusville and surrounding areas. Weather warning just went off for a tornado warning in your area.


Some very cold cloudtops moving over that region right now, and will continue to over the next several hours.

Melbourne NEXRAD picking up some wicked rotation in several of areas.
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1098. JRRP
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1096. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
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1095. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI


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More rotating cells moving in already damaged a roof in Casselberry
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1093. Patrap
A hybrid,Cold Cored Ying and Yang System.


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Heads up Merrit Island, Titusville and surrounding areas. Weather warning just went off for a tornado warning in your area.
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1091. Patrap

IR Loop of the Fray Tonight as it Spins away
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127367
Quoting boyzNme:


Hi Taz,

I know how you feel about the quakes. I was working at Edwards AFB when the Northridge quake hit and all the aftershocks were in the 4.0+ region. It is the anxiety and jerking to look at the (insert numerous objects here) to see if it is shaking!

I was on base when it hit, working nights, and trying to sleep the next morning, while watching the TV rock with every aftershock and knowing I couldn't get back to Long Beach because of the rock slides, was nerve racking. It was such a feeling of unbelief when we walked out of the gate when our shift ended and hearing the next shift coming in telling us that there was fire coming out of the roads and that the freeway collapsed. So, hold on tight and check the brackets holding the (again, insert numerous items here) to the wall are still tight!!




thanks
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Quoting Patrap:

5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 40.8 kts


*uses schoolyard voice*

My wind gusts could beat up your wind gusts.
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Well...the one heading into the Gulf may have a slim shot at some Sub-tropical development. The other ones are shark bait though..Anyways i'm out. Good night all.
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1085. boyzNme
Quoting Tazmanian:



but what dos this all mean how dos this fet in with the 4.7 on sunday and the 4.1 today???


Hi Taz,

I know how you feel about the quakes. I was working at Edwards AFB when the Northridge quake hit and all the aftershocks were in the 4.0+ region. It is the anxiety and jerking to look at the (insert numerous objects here) to see if it is shaking!

I was on base when it hit, working nights, and trying to sleep the next morning, while watching the TV rock with every aftershock and knowing I couldn't get back to Long Beach because of the rock slides, was nerve racking. It was such a feeling of unbelief when we walked out of the gate when our shift ended and hearing the next shift coming in telling us that there was fire coming out of the roads and that the freeway collapsed. So, hold on tight and check the brackets holding the (again, insert numerous items here) to the wall are still tight!!

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1084. Patrap

5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 40.8 kts
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127367
.
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better keep your weather radios on alert mode overnight if you live in East Central FL folks fast moving storms with rotation moving in.
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1080. Patrap
Station 41009
NDBC

Location: 28.519N 80.166W
Conditions as of:
Tuesday, May 19, 2009 10:20:00 PM
Winds: ENE (70°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 40.8 kt
Significant Wave Height: 14.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.82 in
Air Temperature: 73.6 F
Dew Point: 69.8 F
Water Temperature: 73.2 F
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127367
Statement as of 11:44 PM EDT on May 19, 2009

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until midnight EDT for Central
Lake... west central Seminole and northwestern Orange counties...

At 1142 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a tornado. This tornado was located near Altamonte
Springs... moving west at 40 mph.

The tornado will move across areas near Forest City and Piedmont
near State Road 436 and U.S. 441 to between Clarcona and Apopka.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means
that strong rotation has been detected in the storm. A tornado may
already be on the ground... or is expected to develop shortly. If you
are in the path of this dangerous storm... move indoors and to the
lowest level of the building. Stay away from windows. If driving... do
not seek shelter under a Highway overpass.


Lat... Lon 2871 8138 2861 8133 2841 8167 2880 8168
time... Mot... loc 0341z 083deg 33kt 2866 8142


52
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.