First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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456 - always appreciate the views and analysis
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If everyone is cooped up from all that rain in Fl, feel free to stop by and get your Portlight Limited Edition T-shirt!...Now on Ebay!

Or learn how to get a free one in the Portlight blog.

No one interested in the blob in the S Bahamas huh?
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I think 90L is cutting in half!
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What do the gulf SST's look like today?
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Respectfully disagree......Very dry air in the Gulf from the front, and slightly cooler temps, are going to prevent any tropical development.....


as the stationary front moves back to the nw/errodes over the next 48hrs that will change...
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Thanks!:)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Respectfully disagree......Very dry air in the Gulf from the front, and slightly cooler temps, are going to prevent any tropical development.....
ok, we have different opinions.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
I am not sure.. but BobinTampa is close to the first.. although he did not say he wanted it to stop...yet.



I only want it to stop for a five-hour window on Thursday and Friday. It can rain the rest of the month for all I care.
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Quoting CeBas:
The one over Florida should be 91L- Subtropical Storm Ana


Not going to happen! Sorry to disagree! Alot of Wishcasting going on IMO!

You all have a good day and here is some TROLL JUICE for you all to consider.......LOL...have a good day everyone and no FIGHTING KIDS!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Glad we have some rain down here but I woke up this morning so tired!

I mentioned this yesterday but does anyone have experience with a Davis Vantage Pro2 weather station? I just ordered one yesterday and hope to have things up and running this weekend.
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Quoting canesrule1:
I agree with you.


Respectfully disagree......Very dry air in the Gulf from the front, and slightly cooler temps, are going to prevent any tropical development.....
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our ULL appears to be over KW right now....I'm wondering if/when that moisture shield returns to the FL peininsula off the atlantic????
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456---
Im so glad to have you back man... good to see ya
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Its going to take some time for the low in the straits to be subtropical... maybe 2-3 days...right now its a typical North American low pressure system in all level of the atmosphere with a warm front out to 70W which ingulped 90L....90L though will still be out there (though not designated) it be more like a trough.
Overall the cyclonic low in the straits will move NW off Sarasota tonight then west into the eastern GOM on Weds...alot of rain and strong T-Storms over florida..especially on Weds as florida will be on the humid E side and cyclonic turning in the atmosphere may cause a tornado watch in parts of the state.

91L from this..maybe in a few days!
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Im going to give a 30% chance that we get an ANA this week
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Thanks for the update

Tropical Update
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Quoting 19N81W:
hey guys/gals....here we go again for 09'!
looking for weather456's update?


Here's his update Link
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Quoting CeBas:
The one over Florida should be 91L- Subtropical Storm Ana
that is true, we just have a mess here, between 90L and soon to be 91L
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Quoting IKE:
That low that is heading into the GOM is going to head W to WNW and hang around in the GOM and SE USA all week into the weekend...

Look for rain chances to increase along the northern GOM from east to west as the week progresses.


Hope that the Southern Peninsula of Florida gets a good soaking but concerned about flooding/river issues up in North Florida and the Panhandle if the low lingers and fires up suybstantial rain.....My need to get some sand bags to shore up my basement (which flooded during TS Faye last year).....
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the low over florida is still to wide... If I can close up the circ and tighten things up then it would be impressive...
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hey guys/gals....here we go again for 09'!
looking for weather456's update?
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tennisgirl... several of us have been saying since yesterday that the GOM would be the stage for the action... that 90L would only be a precursor...

So yes I agree with your thoughts... I'm not sure I will say there will be a named storm but with improving conditions and the warmer GOM waters a TD is def not out of the question
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Quoting tennisgirl08:
I believe we will have another invest in the GOMEX. Very possible this invest could gain tropical or subtropical characteristics and affect the northern gulf coast states by this weekend. Local meteorologists are predicting for lots of rain here along the gulf and are even hinting at a possible named-storm. I think that is highly unlikely - but i do think a possible TD is not out of the question.
Much better chance of developing in the gulf with warmer waters and lower shear. Especially in the Northern gulf. Thoughts?
I agree with you.
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I believe we will have another invest in the GOMEX. Very possible this invest could gain tropical or subtropical characteristics and affect the northern gulf coast states by this weekend. Local meteorologists are predicting for lots of rain here along the gulf and are even hinting at a possible named-storm. I think that is highly unlikely - but i do think a possible TD is not out of the question.
Much better chance of developing in the gulf with warmer waters and lower shear. Especially in the Northern gulf. Thoughts?
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Nice Update RitaEvac
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Convection coming back to 90L, beginning to make a V shape in the center.
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Hmmm... I wonder how long it will be before the Fl Low makes 91L?
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Not I, Orca. I am enjoying the rain.
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46. KRL
So great to have rain again here in South Florida. Our 2 nearby lakes were really looking abnormally shallow till now.
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Large scale ridging will be building over much of the eastern and southern US. This supports a gradual turn toward the WNW and W in the longer periods. This takes "something" across FL and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Thereafter the globals show the low at the mid levels and possibly the surface moving toward the NC Gulf of Mexico or coastal Louisiana over this upcoming weekend.

Models depict varying degrees of development and I am not sure any of them will in fact play out. May see gradual intensification if a surface center forms as the system moves toward SE Louisiana this weekend.

A broad wind field will be developing with high pressure to the north and falling surface pressures in the Gulf. Expect winds along the coast to begin to back to the east by Thursday and increase out of the ENE to NE into the weekend as low pressure heads toward LA. Large swells and Ekman transports may result in coastal water level rise late this week. May need to add gale force of TS force winds to SE coastal waters this weekend as surface system cranks up just to our east.

As always uncertainty is very high and any changes could increase weather impacts to the upper TX coast. Bears watching is up.
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44. IKE
That low that is heading into the GOM is going to head W to WNW and hang around in the GOM and SE USA all week into the weekend...

Look for rain chances to increase along the northern GOM from east to west as the week progresses.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Orcasystems:
Good morning all:)

So, who will be the first Floridian.. to post that they want it to stop raining already :)



Not me lol. Feels good to finally have rain here in south florida.
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W

AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS NRN S AMERICA
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS LIKELY CROSSED 70W
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS A LOW LEVEL FEATURE...WITH LITTLE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE EPAC DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE
WAVE MOVES W ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF COLOMBIA.
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Quoting fireflymom:
Yes please we need the rains here in Texas, especially central and SE portions of the state.


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Quoting Orcasystems:
Good morning all:)

So, who will be the first Floridian.. to post that they want it to stop raining already :)



Probably the first person who gets tired of going to work sleepy from the rain every day. LOL! *yawn* But it won't be me... I don't mind being rain-sleepy!! :-)
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39. IKE
5-10 knots of shear is dropping down in the NE GOM, right over my two-story house....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
....and to my untrained eye's 90L looks better than at anytime yesterday when it got named a invest!!!
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they all ways say that well too me IKE thing are picking up and it looks like we may be all are way too 90E hey that blod out there looks good in the E pac

Quoting IKE:
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Here in coastal northern St John's county the winds are at 27 mph from the NE, with gusts to 44 mph. Temp is 65. Rain has eased off and is now light at the present time, but the waves at the beach are huge, with higher than normal water levels and beach erosion is bad...
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several miles to the north of the turks and caicos islands i found a buoy reporting winds coming from the ENE at about 32 mph, and the pressure is about 1009 millibars.
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well I guess no sts in the next 48hrs!!!,I thought that most of ingredents were now in the pot.....But I guess there's no gas for the flame....
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33. IKE
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Orcasystems:
Good morning all:)

So, who will be the first Floridian.. to post that they want it to stop raining already :)


Blog Update


Invest 90L Tracks


Invest 90L Satellite



Maybe by the end of the week there will be many. NAM kills FL with rain through Friday night.
Quoting Walshy:
So now we have gone from a 10% to a 20% chance of getting a depression and 91L might be here soon. And now according to Dr.Masters the Gulf of Mexico states need to watch for developing rains. oopS meant SW got to proof read.


Thanks for the update this early!
Yes please we need the rains here in Texas, especially central and SE portions of the state.
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Thanks Dr.; basically looking like a wind/rain event for parts of Florida in the short-term...Hope some convection fires up later to bring some much needed rain to South/Central Florida and Lake-O...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
look like things are picking up in the E pac


looks good, could be the first thing to develop in the E Pac
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I am not sure.. but BobinTampa is close to the first.. although he did not say he wanted it to stop...yet.
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look like things are picking up in the E pac


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.