First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting weatherwatcher12:
What about that blob east of Jamaica
That is just a cluster of showers and thunderstorms, there will be no tropical development with that.
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Quoting KendallHurricane:
AMEN
Amen to that brother, AMEN!!!
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Quoting KendallHurricane:
i believe the low off tampa is becoming subtropical any thoughts
I think so, not a 100% though, just watch it for now.
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Quoting canesrule1:
Sooooooooooooooooooooooo, Florida get ready for a soaking, there goes our drought
AMEN
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What about that blob east of Jamaica
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Sooooooooooooooooooooooo, Florida get ready for a soaking, there goes our drought
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i believe the low off tampa is becoming subtropical any thoughts
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED.
IN ADDITION...LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
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GFS believes this low is currently Subtropical
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/09051906/43.html
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
FUJIWHARA!!!
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i hope that rain sheld off the east coast of florida moves back into south florida especially into interior areas, is it me or is 90L flaring up really really good we need that blob over florida
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Quoting Patrap:


UNCLASSIFIED
Back
FNMOC WXMAP Model: NOGAPS Area: Tropical Atlantic DTG: 2009051906
I would love to see that happen!!!
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wow!!!,No more surface lows,look how far south into cuba they have the cold front!!!:
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UNCLASSIFIED
Back
FNMOC WXMAP Model: NOGAPS Area: Tropical Atlantic DTG: 2009051906
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
Quoting captainhunter:
Welcome back Viking! Long time no see. I agree that this is just going to be a BBQ buster for the weekend unfortunately.


I really hope this thing just keeps sliding West if it wants to go West and slides right past us here in NW Florida! I have planned boat outings to Crab Island this weekend to kick off the summer boating season! I really don't think anyone along the Gulf Coast wants this low around this weekend except maybe the surfers!
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Looks like the Low in Florida albeit the ULL is now over the GOM... maybe i am wrong..

That will be one huge mass of convection once it completely breaks away from that front
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
Reports in my hometown area...

05/19/2009 0855 am

Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

High surf, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Minor beach erosion is reported with breakers above 6
feet.




05/19/2009 0821 am

Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

Heavy rain e0.00 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Rain totals since Sunday in Flagler County are Bunnell
7.20... north Palm Coast 9.30... east Palm Coast 4.73 Haw
Creek southwest Flagler County 11.60... Flagler Beach
4.96... Flagler Airport 5.67.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334

GOM IR Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
It is close to being absorbed bt the other low.
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i see mike from TWC is in Jacksonville FL and its vary windy
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Soak it up...



And only to get more. This plot is missing the last ~12 hours.
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I just looked at the shear map and maybe I was wrong earlier.. there seems to be a patch of favorable wind shear heading right towards that low!!!! If this continues, I bump my chances for Subtropical development yet again.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
NASA SE DOA pic of the day:
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Check this out. Multiple and loopable :)

Link
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I wish we were getting some rain here in Punta Gorda! It rained all day yesterday but only measured a little over a 1/4" of rain! Grrr!! Y'all North of me need to send some rain this way!!
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Welcome back Viking! Long time no see. I agree that this is just going to be a BBQ buster for the weekend unfortunately.
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Hmm.. interesting storm.. Looks like Low Pressure will form near Florida and become the dominate and possibly a Subtropical system. This can happen if it can stay in the GOM for a few days and linger, shear is high but with Subtropical Storms, it normally isn't a big issue.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
StormW what is your opinion on the information available this morning?
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I think I've found some kind of a centerpoint of this complex UL system:Link
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Quoting canesrule1:
I got close to 3 inches!


I've got close to 2in since 3pm yesterday.
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Hello everyone, long time no see!

My amateur opinion of this system off the coast of Florida is that it's going to be a pesky low pressure system that gets in the Gulf and ruins somebody's plans for Memorial Day weekend somewhere between NWF Florida and the Eastern coastal area of Texas.

The wind shear combined with borderline water temperatures just don't support any major development. It's just going to be a nuisance we all get to watch for a little early season warm up. Let the madness begin!
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"break in two" is not exactly what I would call it cane, but the area in the S Bahamas could become the better defined area of vorticity as ex-90l gets absorbed by the Fl Straights low.
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Quoting hahaguy:


Not bad.
I got close to 3 inches!
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if the florida system does drift west into the GOM then it will force a lot of moisture into the region which has been dominated by a lot of dry air
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Quoting StormW:
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Got 1.16" of precip at my place in the 24 hour period ending at 7:00 a.m. this morning.


Not bad.
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Okay, thanks StormJunkie! That way, we Wundergrounders can recognize one another in public!
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER CUBA WILL MAINTAIN HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA TODAY. WHILE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING...A ELEVATED TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THE LOCAL AIRMASS UNSTABLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL. A BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED ON MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTH OF ORLANDO...AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF COCOA.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE INTERIOR FROM LAKE COUNTY TO OSCEOLA COUNTY...AND FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY TO INDIAN RIVER COUNTY ALONG THE COAST.
...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL DRIVE A MODERATE TO LARGE EASTERLY SWELL INTO FLORIDA`S ATLANTIC COAST. THE SWELL WILL GENERATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WHICH MAY RESULT IN MINOR BEACH EROSION AROUND THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND 10:00 AM THIS MORNING AND AFTER 4:30 PM THIS AFTERNOON
...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE A MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL INTO FLORIDA`S ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...WITH HIGH SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NEARING THEIR PEAK. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL CREATE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE RISK WILL BE HIGHEST THROUGH 10:00 AM THIS MORNING AND AFTER 4:30 PM THIS AFTERNOON DURING THE OUTGOING TIDES. ANYONE VISITING THE BEACH TODAY IS URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER.
...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
MARINE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF WATERSPOUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE.
...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WILL GENERATE A MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL OVER FLORIDA`S ATLANTIC WATERS AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER CUBA. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 9 FEET NEARSHORE AND 12 FEET OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER CUBA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. $ BRAGAW


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I think the names should be 90L and 90L(B), it looks like its in 2
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Quoting Ossqss:
\

Thanks Haha, when does that get updated?

Go Pens


I think twice a day but don't hold me to that.

Dam right GO PENS lol.
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Quoting Ossqss:
\

Thanks Haha, when does that get updated?

Go Pens
Im not trying to be funny look at the pic, its almost 2!!! :-)
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the cloud deck over FL is starting to get that classic comma shape,anyone else notice that????,this is looking almost exactly like some of those nam runs 2 days ago!!!!
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Quoting canesrule1:
I think 90L is cutting in half!
\

Thanks Haha, when does that get updated? Hummm, strange, I did not quote this post.

Go Pens
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Now 90L looks better than they did before.

Same with soon to be 91L.

I give a 30-60% chance that we'll have a TD or STD this week.
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Stormjunkie-
Do you believe they are going to break into 2?
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No wishcasting - but I am just making comments based on what local meteorologists are saying here along the gulf coast. It's always confusing because several times local forecasts tend to contrast with national forecasts put out by the NHC and TWC.

I'll guess time will tell...
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Quoting stillwaiting:
our ULL appears to be over KW right now....I'm wondering if/when that moisture shield returns to the FL peininsula off the atlantic????


Was wondering that myself. Seems we will be rather dry until things start moving back west.
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456 - always appreciate the views and analysis
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.