First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting quakeman55:


Funny how you say that when you yourself have the word "Cane" in your own handle...

But I'm guessing that 80% of these handles you speak of came after you created yours.
yea, my name is canesrule1 because i am a big Miami hurricanes college football team fan.
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Will that dry air wind into this storm or bypass? Any one?
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Quoting canesrule1:
yes it is possible, but it is not a fast process.(that is my opinion)
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Quoting CaneAddict:
People need to seriously stop creating handles with Cane in them...There's already to many Canes around and now we have Canesrule...


Funny how you say that when you yourself have the word "Cane" in your own handle...

But I'm guessing that 80% of these handles you speak of came after you created yours.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
The million dollar question is "Can the ULL work its way down to the surface?"

If it does then the possibilities of the named storm or STD become imminent, but if not, well we can only speculate.
yes it is possible, but it is not a fast process.
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222. Mikla
I good be all wrong, but I still think Central and Northern Fl are in for a good deal of wet weather. The upper level winds are still shearing off to the east, but the steering winds appear to wrap around the tip of FL, pulling moist air off the ocean and into the upper east side of FL. Depending on what happens with the remnents of 90L, it can increase the amount of rain that occurs. Guess we'll have to wait and see...
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50 mph gust in jacksonvill
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The million dollar question is "Can the ULL work its way down to the surface?"

If it does then the possibilities of the named storm or STD become imminent, but if not, well we can only speculate.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
the sun has been breaking thru the clouds,winds are up around 20mph and the cloud bases are black and moving rapidly out of the east.....this ULL is about start to stregthen rapidly,as this whole system has been under-estamated so far....sheer is lowering over the NE GOM as well....
yep typical nor'easter
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Quoting Patrap:
"Im telling ya folks..this System is real Juicy up the Jax folks way."

Back to you in the Studio.



Where is the helmet and goggles :)
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Looking at Patraps Gulf IR loop, yea this thing is going to do something in the next few days, it's too obvious.
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the sun has been breaking thru the clouds,winds are up around 20mph and the cloud bases are black and moving rapidly out of the east.....this ULL is about start to stregthen rapidly,as this whole system has been under-estamated so far....sheer is lowering over the NE GOM as well....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Wax up them boards, east coast is ripping power chop-but by Sat or Sun it will be decent. If only the water temps would rise, it still is not warm.
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Quoting KendallHurricane:
not really i am much further west
Quoting CaneAddict:
People need to seriously stop creating handles with Cane in them...There's already to many Canes around and now we have Canesrule...
My name is canerule1 because I am a big fan of the Miami Hurricanes College football team...... I am around Coconut Grove.
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"Im telling ya folks..this System is real Juicy up the Jax folks way."

Back to you in the Studio.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
Quoting CaneAddict:
People need to seriously stop creating handles with Cane in them...There's already to many Canes around and now we have Canesrule...
true we need to be more specific
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Ah yes, another system come and gone. Just another rainy day in Northeast Florida. This too shall pass...
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People need to seriously stop creating handles with Cane in them...There's already to many Canes around and now we have Canesrule...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
208. Vero1
Quoting canesrule1:


Do we draw what we want?
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Quoting canesrule1:
Me i am located around Mercy Hospital and La Salle, if you are familliar with that area
not really i am much further west
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Quoting KendallHurricane:
central dade county near westchester
Me i am located around Mercy Hospital, La Salle, and i am very close to the Ritz-Carlton if you are familliar with that area
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Quoting canesrule1:
I am seeing it, some more rain coming to miami. By the way where are you located, in Miami-Dade or are you in Broward?
central dade county near westchester
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203. MahFL
Well its pouring in downtown JAX.
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GOM IR Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop


nice rotation
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Quoting KendallHurricane:
cane showers and thunderstorms are developing to our south west in Miami-dade county looks like we are going to get rained on very very soon look at the NWS composite radar
I am seeing it, some more rain coming to miami. By the way where are you located, in Miami-Dade or are you in Broward?
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Quoting sfla82:
But SFLA isn't going to get the 4-8 inches of rain like everyone was calling for?
isolated areas will if thunderstorm train over and over the same areas already drenched from yesterdays and last nights storms :)
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Jax Beach WEBcam
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
yes, pre 91L as everyone is calling it is the dominant feature. I guess we were agreeing and not realizing it. 90L should continue its same direction as it is absorbed, but I'm not sure how much moisture it adds to the scenario. Best bet is the east side rainshield. 90L could very well become a part of it soon as well.
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Quoting canesrule1:
let me check
look at the NWS radar composite
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But SFLA isn't going to get the 4-8 inches of rain like everyone was calling for?
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Quoting weatherman874:


yes, I agree with you. It's wheter or not the ull comes down to the surface and turns sub-tropical or tropical
see what i mean but looks like we in Dade county are geeting rain from our southwest thundersotrms are rapidly developing
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Quoting KendallHurricane:
cane showers and thunderstorms are developing to our south west in Miami-dade county looks like we are going to get rained on very very soon look at the NWS composite radar
let me check
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I see a swirl , although no convection at 12.5N/75W, anyone else notice this?
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cane showers and thunderstorms are developing to our south west in Miami-dade county looks like we are going to get rained on very very soon look at the NWS composite radar
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Quoting kingy:
canesrule - this system will bring a massive amount of moisture into the GOM, given the epic dimensions of this early season blob I wonder whether we will be surprised what happens when it does end up in the gulf. The SST's are not really hot enough yet i guess

SSTs are above 80 in many place in the gomex and are well above average. My biggest concern is the shear and dry air. I know shear is progged to lessen but with the barely supportive SSTs I don't know if "less worse" is good enough .... makes me think of the stock market slump last week ... but that's another topic altogether
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Quoting KendallHurricane:
let me try to understand if 90L is being absorbed by the ull by tampa that means that the dominent feature is the ull which means our weather will be controlled by the ull which means what i have said in previouse writings is correct ????


yes, I agree with you. It's wheter or not the ull comes down to the surface and turns sub-tropical or tropical
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
753 am CDT Tuesday may 19 2009


Significant forecast problems begin for Wednesday night and beyond.
Surface and upper highs along the East Coast will eventually force
the Florida low westward. Unfortunately...there are as many
forecast solutions as there are models.
GFS solution develops a
major separation between the surface and upper lows...and along
with the Canadian solution...appear to be fast outliers.


Will increase probability of precipitation slightly for Thursday...keeping them in the
chance range...however.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
Quoting SouthALWX:
not sure I'm following you there Cane, 90L, what's left of it, looks to continue NE does it not? Could you post the NHC segment you're referring to?
Think i read i wrong take a look...
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. IN ADDITION...LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
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Quoting weatherman874:


I think that 90l is still by the Bahamas and still coming towards florida, but a new low formed along the old front and as the High pressure is rebuilding it is sending pre 91l and all of its moisture to the west
let me try to understand if 90L is being absorbed by the ull by tampa that means that the dominent feature is the ull which means our weather will be controlled by the ull which means what i have said in previouse writings is correct ????
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yea
more towards the panhandle/GOM
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Interesting item just south of Acapulco



Link
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Jax is getting the Rain big Time

Beach erosion could be occurring there.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
Quoting nchurricane:
it looks to me that pre-91L is moving west

That's what I was thinking... and west isn't toward florida, correct?
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it looks to me that pre-91L is moving west
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Quoting canesrule1:
ok now i get you
see what i mean the really heavy stuff will not come over us unless it pulls west quickly which could be tonight or tomorrow i just hope it dissapears for memorial day weekend
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Quoting KendallHurricane:
i do but how can the circulation center come though south florida if it is moving west maybe you mean all the wet weather but see my previous response that will explain


I think that 90l is still by the Bahamas and still coming towards florida, but a new low formed along the old front and as the High pressure is rebuilding it is sending pre 91l and all of its moisture to the west
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not sure I'm following you there Cane, 90L, what's left of it, looks to continue NE does it not? Could you post the NHC segment you're referring to?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.