First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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1227. WxLogic
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


I could use some. You will likely have around 12-14 inches of rain by the end of this storm


Hehe definitely agree, as there's another healthy band of rain heading towards CFL... wish I could share.
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Quoting WxLogic:
Since the start of the rain event... I've received 8.58" of rain so far. Not over yet for sure.


I could use some. You will likely have around 12-14 inches of rain by the end of this storm
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1225. IKE
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1224. IKE
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good morning from under the edge of:

ex 90L (the big big bolb)

Anybody need some extra rain?
We have MORE than enough to share!
CRS


Too much of a good thing.

It may be another 7-10 days before this entire system is completely gone from the SE USA.
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Good morning from under the edge of:

ex 90L (the big big bolb)

Anybody need some extra rain?
We have MORE than enough to share!
CRS
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1221. WxLogic
Since the start of the rain event... I've received 8.58" of rain so far. Not over yet for sure.
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1220. IKE
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


good morning Ike

same here, 62 and clear skies


It's breezy outside too.
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1218. WxLogic
Good morning...
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1217. IKE
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Its pulling in dry air now.


That's a good water vapor loop.
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1215. IKE
Quoting Keys99:


Good Morning
IKE Key West weather seams to agree with you calling for the system to be on shore Saturday North Central Gulf. Look like a wet Saturday in store up that way.


I agree. I'm still on the dry side now. Got 63 degrees with partly sunny skies.

And good morning.
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ok, latest we have ex 90L (the big big bolb) and pre 91L and a another blob west of jamaca.
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1213. Keys99
Quoting IKE:
Latest 6Z GFS seems more aggressive on the precipitation for the north-central GOM where the low makes landfall and points east including my neck of the woods.

Still showing a 2nd system the end of next week possibly affecting Florida again.


Good Morning
IKE Key West weather seams to agree with you calling for the system to be on shore Saturday North Central Gulf. Look like a wet Saturday in store up that way.
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There might be a low level circulation developing just due west of Tampa, in the moisture and in 5-10 knots of wind shear... interesting.. Does anybody see this?? I need visible to confirm.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
I got 2.35 here in kendal,fl
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We have some damage here in Palm Coast, mainly Flagler Beach. We still are the hardest hit area from this whole storm. Reports...

05/19/2009 0600 PM

NW Palm Coast, Flagler County.

Heavy rain m12.20 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Emergency management reported storm total rainfall of
12.20 inches in NW Palm Coast.





05/19/2009 0345 PM

Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

Non-thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Emergency management reported Powers lines down at 2044
ocean shore Boulevard in Flagler Beach.




05/19/2009 0345 PM

NW Palm Coast, Flagler County.

Heavy rain m8.00 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Emergency management reported storm total rainfall of
8.00 inches in NW Palm Coast.





05/19/2009 1200 PM

Bunnell, Flagler County.

Heavy rain m9.60 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Flagler County EOC reports a 3 day rainfall total ending
at noon today of 9.6 inches.




05/19/2009 1000 am

1 miles NW of Palm Coast, Flagler County.

Heavy rain m7.00 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


The react in northwest Palm Coast had 3 day rainfall
total ending 10 am of 7 inches.




05/19/2009 1200 PM

7 miles SW of Bunnell, Flagler County.

Heavy rain m13.30 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


A 3 day rainfall total of 13.3 inches was measured by the
community emergency response team as of noon today.




05/19/2009 1200 PM

1 miles N of Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

Heavy rain m6.10 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


The amateur radio emergency service-react of north
Flagler Beach reports a 3 day rainfall total as of noon
today of 6.1 inches.




05/19/2009 1200 PM

Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

Non-thunderstorm wind gust m48 mph, reported by Emergency Mngr.


The amateur radio emergency service-react of Flagler
Beach measured the wind gust at the Davis weather station
at 33 feet and is located one block in from the ocean.




05/19/2009 1121 am

Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

Non-thunderstorm wind gust m50 mph, reported by Emergency Mngr.


The Flagler Beach fire Rescue station 11 measured a wind
gust of 50 mph.




05/19/2009 0600 am

Bunnell, Flagler County.

Non-thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


The Flagler County EOC received report from the school
board that a school was was hit by a tree and the
windshield was damaged.




05/19/2009 0603 am

Bunnell, Flagler County.

Non-thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


The Flagler County EOC received a report from the school
board that a second bus was hit by tree limbs on State
Road 100 west. The falling limbs caused minor damage to
the bus.





05/19/2009 1121 am

Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

Non-thunderstorm wind gust m50 mph, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Flagler Beach Fire Department measured a wind gust of 50
mph.




05/19/2009 1120 am

Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

Non-thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Power lines are down at 1775 north central Avenue. Minor
roof and shingle damage at 805 north A1A. Fishermans net
restaurant lost siding on their building.


Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
1208. MahFL
We have had about 6 inches of rain so far.
I also see some banding like features on sat and radar NE of me.
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1207. IKE
Latest 6Z GFS seems more aggressive on the precipitation for the north-central GOM where the low makes landfall and points east including my neck of the woods.

Still showing a 2nd system the end of next week possibly affecting Florida again.
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1205. IKE
That last hour of sleep is the best hour you can get. First cup of coffee about to be divulged....
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1204. MahFL
Here in JAX it feels a lot more tropical outside, and the rain is lashing against the windows of my office downtown. We are 14 floors up, so we get a good view :).
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1202. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning ya'll.

ike - a question. looking at a loop of gom infrared, looks like a dry swath will be approaching the east coast of Fla, in between globs of rain. More's out there, I know, but what part of Fla's east coast will it affect today?


LOL...sorry, went back to sleep. Looks like the NE coast of Florida mainly, for now.
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Our poor drifting Buoy 41008 has drifted 32 miles SSE from it's home in a single day, and looks to wash up near the St. Mary's River sometime this evening.

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The feature on the right will likely become Tropical Storm Andres- Link
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Beautiful morning in West Palm Beach, only a few clouds in the sky.
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1197. surfmom
Up early - so I can have an hour of tranquil b/4 the rest of the house wakes...LOL..plus I wanted to see if the swirl is becoming a whirl...

Had light rain through the night... it's dead quiet out there right now.....

I expected more "flooding" mind you I'm not asking for that...LOL... but I had hoped for more Boomers
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1196. aquak9
Hi surfmom. you're up early!

We had another 2 inches since 6pm last night. How ya'll doing? windy at all?
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1195. surfmom
Buenos Dias ALL -- checking to see if any swirly is wanting to become a whirly
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1194. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 20MAY)
===========================================
Convective clouds are seen over Andaman Sea, south Bay of Bengal, southeast and east central Arabian Sea.

MONSOON WATCH
===================
  • Southwest monsoon has set in over some parts of south Bay of Bengal and entire Andaman Sea. The northern limit of monsoon passes through 5.0N 80.0E, 9.0N 85.0E, 12.0N 90.0E, 14.0ºN 93.0E and 17.0N 97.0E.

  • Conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon over some parts of south Arabian Sea, some more parts of south Bay of Bengal and some parts of eastcentral Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours.

    Chief Meteorologist Forecast Outlook (0300z 20MAY)
    ==================================================
    A low pressure area is likely to form over central Bay of Bengal around 23rd.
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    1193. aquak9
    g'morning ya'll.

    ike - a question. looking at a loop of gom infrared, looks like a dry swath will be approaching the east coast of Fla, in between globs of rain. More's out there, I know, but what part of Fla's east coast will it affect today?
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    Is it me or does the circulation look to be tightening more as it rolls off the W coast of FL?
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    Keeps people busy, something to look at.. hopefully won't be so bad even if it's non-tropical.

    Only 11 days to go...

    (Still holding on to the first one being in mid June though!)
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    1189. IKE
    Looks so....

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    1187. IKE
    Station 42036 - W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL....note the winds. Sea temp down to 74.5 degrees....

    "Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
    5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
    5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts

    5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 10.8 ft
    5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
    5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
    5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NNE ( 33 deg true )
    5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
    5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.08 in ( Falling )
    5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 70.2 %uFFFDF
    5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 74.5 %uFFFDF
    5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 65.7 %uFFFDF"
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    1186. IKE
    This buoy is at Pulaski Shoal Light,FL....note the pressure and wind direction...

    "Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 230 deg true )
    5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 15 kts
    5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 17 kts
    5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
    5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
    5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.4 F"
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    1184. IKE
    Quoting sporteguy03:
    Ike,
    Now you know what might be coming to the rest of the Gulf a nasty system.


    Yup....

    buoy 262 NM south of Panama City,FL...

    "Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
    5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
    5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
    5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 13.1 ft
    5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
    5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 7.1 sec
    5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NNE ( 21 deg true )
    5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
    5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )

    5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 74.8 °F
    5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F
    5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 °F"
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    i just got here to cassleberry, FL and i see they had a touchdown here with some damage and now i cant sleep--crap----geez..... i know how to pick great timing...ill be here 2 more days woohoo- much needed rain..:) ---- near 436/maitland.........
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    1182. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
    Joint Typhoon Warning Center

    Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 20MAY)
    ============================================
    An area of convection (99W) located at 12.1N 114.1E or 500 NM southeast of Hainan Island, China. Animated multispectral satellite imagery continues to show a small, weak low level circulation center moving west-northwest with isolated, disorganized deep convection flaring over the northern quadrant. Recent ship observations (VRAC9, AUBE, PCVX) indicates 10-15 knot winds with a surface low pressure as low as 1006.5 MB at 0000z. Microwave imagery (AMSU, 0140z/20 and SSMIS 2340z/19) supports a disorganized low level circulation center with poorly defined convective banding. Overall, the environment remains marginal with the upper level analysis indicating that the low level circulation center is located under an inverted trough with low to moderate vertical wind shear

    Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimal sea level pressure of 1006 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
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    1181. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
    MONSOON WATCH
    ===================
    Southwest monsoon is likely to onset today over south Andaman Sea and adjoining south Bay of Bengal.

    Chief Meteorologist Forecast Outlook (0000z 20MAY)
    ===============================================
    A low pressure area will form over central Bay of Bengal around 23rd and intensify thereafter
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    1180. RevInFL
    Thanks!! Sorry about saying circle. I knew better but my brain isnt connecting to the fingers right now.
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    Quoting RevInFL:
    I have question for my friendly weather wizards. Are these bands gonna circle back around to the East Coast of Florida or can I go get some sleep? If they are gonna circle back around, how long will it take? Thanks I am needing some shut eye.


    Not Circle around but more could pinwheel in from the ATL, best advice keep weather radio on.
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    1178. RevInFL
    I have question for my friendly weather wizards. Are these bands gonna circle back around to the East Coast of Florida or can I go get some sleep? If they are gonna circle back around, how long will it take? Thanks I am needing some shut eye.
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    1177. Patrap
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    TORNADO WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
    126 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...
    EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CASSIA...
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    Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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