First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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sounds like a prostate medication....
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What sort of name is "Idamis"?!?!?!?!
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Joe Bastardi from Accuweather actually mentions my area "Palm Coast". We have the highest rainfall form the storm so far, and it's not even over yet. he also says this has a good chance at becoming Subtropical Storm Ana.

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Maybe it's just me, but, looking at the WV loops, it looks like the best chance of substantial rainfall right now in the short term is over the Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos...Florida looks to be rapidly drying up right about now.......
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371. IKE
Quoting JRRP:
TROPICAL WAVES...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST ABOUT
15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE AT
THE PRESENT TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST
NEAR 4N7W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-1S BETWEEN 4W-10W...AND FROM 4N-EQ
BETWEEN 11W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF BRAZIL FROM 1N-2S BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO
BEYOND WEST CUBA NEAR 23N82W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING NE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING NE SURFACE WINDS.
20-25 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE 10-15 KT
WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 25N
AND E OF 87W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE GULF NEAR 27N84W. THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA HAS ABUNDANT
UPPER AIR MOISTURE WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. EXPECT...A 1009 MB LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY N OF THE
CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 23N82W 20N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
FRONT OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 77W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 71W-75W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N-14N
BETWEEN 81W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION
FROM THE SW TO NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 77W-82W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 25N77W 24N74W 23N71W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 70W-79W. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N67W 27N44W 24N46W 19N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-32N BETWEEN 43W-45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER E N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. IN THE
TROPICS...UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED NEAR 8N47W AND 5N22W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
EXPECT...CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


Interesting...EXPECT...A 1009 MB LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY N OF THE
CENTER.
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be not afraid, my child..the dress, wig, and...well...accessories...are safely packed away in a water proof bag....
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369. JRRP
TROPICAL WAVES...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST ABOUT
15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE AT
THE PRESENT TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST
NEAR 4N7W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-1S BETWEEN 4W-10W...AND FROM 4N-EQ
BETWEEN 11W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF BRAZIL FROM 1N-2S BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO
BEYOND WEST CUBA NEAR 23N82W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING NE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING NE SURFACE WINDS.
20-25 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE 10-15 KT
WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 25N
AND E OF 87W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE GULF NEAR 27N84W. THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA HAS ABUNDANT
UPPER AIR MOISTURE WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. EXPECT...A 1009 MB LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY N OF THE
CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 23N82W 20N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
FRONT OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 77W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 71W-75W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N-14N
BETWEEN 81W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION
FROM THE SW TO NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 77W-82W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 25N77W 24N74W 23N71W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 70W-79W. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N67W 27N44W 24N46W 19N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-32N BETWEEN 43W-45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER E N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. IN THE
TROPICS...UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED NEAR 8N47W AND 5N22W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
EXPECT...CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5697
Quoting presslord:
Pat...definitely severe Mist Watch conditions...am trying to stay alert...


Save the dress press !
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
I think Patrap would like this.
This is last weeks WaterSpout over the Causeway.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
Pat...definitely severe Mist Watch conditions...am trying to stay alert...
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Here we have an AMSU cross-section with the red line (90L) and the other low near 81W. Notice the warm-anomaly near the low levels and cool at the mid-levels near 81W. This is also justified by cyclone phase diagrams. I will continue to monitor for trends but it doesn't seems the result will be fully extratropical.





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Maybe you'll see a Mist Watch press...
snicker,grin
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting presslord:
overcast here...and a tad cooler than you might expect...wind out of the NE..I'd guess about 10-12kts...gusting to 18-20kts...some mist...pretty sure the power is gonna go out any minute and we're all gonna die...


ROFLMAO
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362. IKE
12Z NOGAPS
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presslord - too funny
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8058221.stm

Something to remind you there's still some cute and good in the world.
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359. IKE
12Z UKMET
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overcast here...and a tad cooler than you might expect...wind out of the NE..I'd guess about 10-12kts...gusting to 18-20kts...some mist...pretty sure the power is gonna go out any minute and we're all gonna die...
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344. DestinJeff
OMG that is so funny and there too many more to mention!
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My gauge shows 1007 MB in Bradenton, must be broken.

Current Pressure Reading
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
"It may be just me, but that XTRP Model is heading right for my house"

Classic.....
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
The QuikSCAT was from 7 this morning

Here's a current image, Notice a very broad circulation.

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any new updates on our areas of disturbed weather around florida
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350. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
and now, some more "Most Common Things You'll See on the Blog: 2009 Edition"

"I guess we'll have to wait and see"

"Climatology rules the roost"

"African Wave Train"

"Pre(invest#)L"

"It may be just me, but that XTRP Model is heading right for my house"

"When do you think watches will go up, Adrian?"

"Low-level convergence / upper-level divergence"

"You can't trust the models"

"I don't know, but the latest model runs are trending toward my front porch"

"Devasting floods in Haiti"

"Leave Taz alone"

...and many, many more.

Best of luck to those of you in harms way this season. Hopefully, that is none of us.


LOL.....:)
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
WEATHER456
is that showing a LLC around the Northern tip of Cuba?


it is a low pressure area that appears to be assoicated with the base of the front.

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i was just looking at the graphs for today and i noticed the wind has increased in avg speed and in gusts through out the day here in NC
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
Weather 456, did I read that right, circulation over Cuba??
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WEATHER456
is that showing a LLC around the Northern tip of Cuba?
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION


...LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NAM IS SLOWER AND SPLIT WITH THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DAY 1 AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z/19 ECMWF. FROM DAY 2 ONWARD...THE NAM OUTPACES THE OLD ECMWF WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. LIKE THE 00Z/19 ECMWF...THE NEW GFS STAMPS THE MAIN SURFACE CENTER JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...00Z/20 WEDNESDAY...WITH A COMPARABLE POSITION NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 12 HOURS LATER. THEREAFTER THE GFS PEELS OFF TO THE LEFT OF THE NAM AND OLD ECMWF.
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Oh wait I think the national media did consult the CMC on the swine flu
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340. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:


You know, it's a good job CMC doesn't do newspapers as well.

Imagine what they'd be like with swine flu?


LOL!
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lol nice ossgss
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Quoting StormW:


You rang?
what???
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Should be a good one in PBC this afternoon. Large circulation developing right in the heart of the county.
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ROFLMAO!!!! OSSGSS that's classic!
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Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
The Tampa COC does seem quite strong...
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whats the status, Chief???
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Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC


I see it's now finally on board with the models from yesterday, lol.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
AH c'mon OSSGSS...lol!


Seriously, Texan. I know it seems nit-picky, but might confuse some. And, probably has already resulted in folks going to where they would find it. It's a waste of those people's time.

That's all. :)
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Phooey. I thought Hurricane Season would just not happen this year:)
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Could just call it the "cluster of blobs" that it is currently! I'll be interested to see how things go when that COC that I seem to be seeing around Tampa moves offshore into the GOM later this afternoon and evening. That seems to be the area everything in the SE is wrapping around including the stuff by the Bahamas getting pulled towards it.
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Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC


You know, it's a good job CMC doesn't do newspapers as well.

Imagine what they'd be like with swine flu?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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