First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

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A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

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because it is pushing moist air out in front of it...the circ is still well east of the wet barrier... this morning it was a whole lot closer
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Lots of dry air moving in, Looks like fishing tomorrow will be okay.
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Quoting IKE:
Check out my dew point...

"WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
Clear
72.7 °F
Clear
Humidity: 32%
Dew Point: 39 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 16.0 mph
Pressure: 30.09 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 76 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft"


Make sure you save that to compare it to come tomorrow when that low is in the GOM! I bet by tomorrow we'll see quite an increase in the humidty and dewpoint in our area!
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Quoting 69Viking:
398. CatastrophicDL

Quote feature isn't working so well! Anyways now you've done it CatastrophicDL, prepare for the onslaught of the Storms!

Someone else mentioned them the other day, so hopefully i"m not hte one that will jinx us all :o)
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting Cotillion:
Still doesn't beat 96L of '07.

That was the Little Engine That Could. (Or Couldn't, in the end.)

Forever living on... in our hearts and minds.


was that the one that traversed the entire northern carrib up to the bahamas as a dry swirl?
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another WV still image
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
LOL... I'm not trying to sound like "you know who" but it is pretty cool how this thing is creating its own environment


I don't see how it is creating its own environment. It started in a moist area, and it has always been in a somewhat moist area. What I find telling is that it is now fully surrounded by dry air on 3 sides.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
Still doesn't beat 96L of '07.

That was the Little Engine That Could. (Or Couldn't, in the end.)

Forever living on... in our hearts and minds.
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All you Wellington Folk

Statement as of 2:17 PM EDT on May 19, 2009

... Strong thunderstorm moving across central Palm Beach County...

At 215 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorms near lion country safari... moving north at 10
mph.

This storm will affect...

Lion country safari...

And surrounding communities.

The primary impacts will be up to pea sized hail and gusty winds of
40 to 50 mph... which can down small tree limbs and branches... and
blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building
until the storm passes.

Also... this storm is developing in an environment favorable for
tornadoes. A funnel cloud has been reported from the public.


Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details or updates.

Lat... Lon 2689 8052 2692 8032 2664 8028 2659 8042
time... Mot... loc 1816z 169deg 9kt 2672 8036
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Quite a bit of dry air there...
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
416. IKE
Check out my dew point...

"WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
Clear
72.7 °F
Clear
Humidity: 32%
Dew Point: 39 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 16.0 mph
Pressure: 30.09 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 76 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
LOL... I'm not trying to sound like "you know who" but it is pretty cool how this thing is creating its own environment
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latest WV still image
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Thats due to the developing upper-level low continuing to deepen and expand.


And look how fast that dry air is retreating to make room for it in the GOM! 40% chance of rain is now in the NW Florida forecast for the next 5 days at least!
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412. IKE
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Goodbye 90L!


NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200905191815
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END/strong>


RIP 90L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Goodbye 90L!

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200905191815
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END/strong>
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Quoting quakeman55:
Of course the StormTop posts really should go like this:

"DATA COMING INTO MY WEATHER OFFICE IN MY MOTHER'S BASEMENT IN NEW ORLEANS INDICATES..."

Haha...ST's definitely one you love to hate.


Nobody has basements in New Orleans because we are below Sea-Level.

You have it all wrong,
STORMTOP's Weather Office is in the Bathroom Stall at the Bus Stop.
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so basically the ULL will help conditions to become more favorable for the LCC
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Quoting IKE:
Look how low the shear is dropping down to in the NE GOM...it's dropping from north to south...



Thats due to the developing upper-level low continuing to deepen and expand.
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398. CatastrophicDL

Quote feature isn't working so well! Anyways now you've done it CatastrophicDL, prepare for the onslaught of the Storms!
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Maybe it's just me, but, looking at the WV loops, it looks like the best chance of substantial rainfall right now in the short term is over the Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos...Florida looks to be rapidly drying up right about now.......


Uh... maybe in the panhandle. Most of the rest of the state still looks green to me. Still raining here in JAX...
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Quoting quakeman55:
Of course the StormTop posts really should go like this:

"DATA COMING INTO MY WEATHER OFFICE IN MY MOTHER'S BASEMENT IN NEW ORLEANS INDICATES..."

Haha...ST's definitely one you love to hate.
Go Canes!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Of course the StormTop posts really should go like this:

"DATA COMING INTO MY WEATHER OFFICE IN MY MOTHER'S BASEMENT IN NEW ORLEANS INDICATES..."

Haha...ST's definitely one you love to hate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
403. IKE
Look how low the shear is dropping down to in the NE GOM...it's dropping from north to south...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
ROFLMAO!
Press,
Thats was just too funny...
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Quoting canesrule1:
Tropical Storm Ana was going to form in May.


hmmm... don't pull on my leg to hard... it has been known to fall off during the regular season leg pulling that goes on here..
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Who saw Family Guy this Sunday?
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


what did it say?
Tropical Storm Ana was going to form in May.
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How have we gotten so luck that we haven't been hit by the storms yet... stormtop, stormkat, etc...???

I do like that we've had an invest this early. It has given me a chance to warm up my fingers, make sure my links are all still working and make any changes to my favorites for easier, quick response access. :o)
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting canesrule1:
the farmer's almanac may be right.


what did it say?
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396. IKE
"""I'm shutting my computer down. It's drizzling outside..."""
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Thanks for the info 456. Perfect time for me to win the named storm section of Ossgss's game!


The clock is ticking :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
"I'm just trying to save lives here, people..."
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Quoting Weather456:
Hurricane Preparedness Week begins Sunday, leading up the last week before Hurricane Season 2009. MJO upward pulse will be here through May 29-June 14 and would be interesting to see what materialize then.

Thanks for the info 456. Perfect time for me to win the named storm section of Ossgss's game!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
392. MahFL
The heatwave warnings are mainly for people with resporty problems. Also hardly any British homes, and many offices, have AC. I went back to Old Blighty three years ago and stopped in a cheapish B&B in the heat ( 85 to 90 f ), they did not even have an electic fan. We had to put damp towels ontop of ourselves to cool down and be able to sleep. Later in the week we found an AC'd pub in Windermere and were nice an cool for a few hours. Also during the holiday some old man on a public bus asked me to close the window as it was blowing his hair out of place....sheesh ! The bus did not have A/C.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3456
Quoting SevereHurricane:
I think Patrap would like this.
This is last weeks WaterSpout over the Causeway.


don't know about Patrap, but I definitely like that photo!
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I am so glad the gulf waters aren't quite warm enough...yet to support tropical development. Oh, and my favorite quote from last year:

"Should I get in my bathtub now?"


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Quoting presslord:
What sort of name is "Idamis"?!?!?!?!


Well, we do have Ida on the hurricane list this year...

So if it hits anywhere, it's her fault already.
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Don't forget about THIS. Can't have a season without it, lol.
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387. eddye
se fl under a tornado warning watch out i think it going to get worse with ts storm winds and no school tommorrow lol
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386. IKE
Quoting reedzone:
Joe Bastardi from Accuweather actually mentions my area "Palm Coast". We have the highest rainfall form the storm so far, and it's not even over yet. he also says this has a good chance at becoming Subtropical Storm Ana.



Interesting....woman was wound up...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting presslord:
What sort of name is "Idamis"?!?!?!?!


Perhaps it is not a name. Quote from my mother-in-law.

Idamis you if you were gone.

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
NOAAs season forecast is issued this thursday.
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Hurricane Preparedness Week begins Sunday, leading up the last week before Hurricane Season 2009. MJO upward pulse will be here through May 29-June 14 and would be interesting to see what materialize then.
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the farmer's almanac may be right.
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Quoting presslord:
Pat...definitely severe Mist Watch conditions...am trying to stay alert...


We get sun warnings. Just because of the rarity.

Already have authorities warning us of a heatwave.. where temperatures reach - hold it - a mighty...

30C! WOW! (86F).

As much as we love to complain about the weather, we seem hopeless with dealing with it over here...
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Quoting presslord:
sounds like a prostate medication....
LOL!!!!
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379. MahFL
Joe needs to hype to keep his paychecks comeing......
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3456
ROFL Destin Jeff!!!
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sounds like a prostate medication....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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